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[Gustav] New Tropical Threat

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by marks0223, Aug 25, 2008.

  1. JunkyardDwg

    JunkyardDwg Member

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    Local fox news showing some chilling images of the industrial canal...it is completely full and spilling over, but the walls are holding. Just a scary sight though.
     
  2. Lil Pun

    Lil Pun Member

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    I think I am seeing that on CNN.
     
  3. tulexan

    tulexan Member

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    As long as the levee isn't breached, it's not really an issue.
     
  4. Lil Pun

    Lil Pun Member

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    CNN is saying that one was and they had to leave the area due to flooding.
     
  5. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Atomic Playboy
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    New Tropical Threat
    _____

    [​IMG]
     
  6. Lil Pun

    Lil Pun Member

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    They're saying they appear to be holding up.....for now.
     
  7. tulexan

    tulexan Member

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    The video CNN keeps showing is not a breach.
     
  8. Lil Pun

    Lil Pun Member

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    One of the reporters that is actually in New Orleans said that but after they came back from commercial break the home anchor corrected him.
     
  9. Faos

    Faos Member

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    http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/hurricanes/gustav/

    Hats off the hurricane center: they nailed the forecast

    Now that Hurricane Gustav has come ashore near Cocodrie, La., it's time to assess the performance of the National Hurricane Center.

    Here's their five-day forecast for Gustav from Wednesday morning:

    [​IMG]

    The average error for a five-day forecast is more than double the 120 statute miles they were off by. Moreover, their intensity forecast at five days out called for a 115-mph hurricane at landfall, and it came in at 110 mph. That's incredible.

    The hurricane center gets beaten up when it misses on forecasts, so it's only fair they should get credit when they absolutely nail one.

    In fact, during the last four days prior to landfall, the hurricane center did an exceptional job of keeping the forecast point of landfall on central Louisiana. What do I mean? Take a look at the computer model runs from midday Friday:

    [​IMG]


    The average among most of the major dynamical models clearly points at least as far westward as the Texas-Louisiana border. So what did the hurricane center do? All the forecasters did that afternoon was put out a projection that pretty much nailed this morning's landfall:

    [​IMG]


    In an earlier e-mail to me, senior hurricane specialist Rick Knabb explained his rationale at the time. He was right.

    Forecasting hurricanes is really difficult work. There are large errors involved. Our forecasts aren't yet precise enough, so we have to evacuate large areas of coastline. (Sorry Beaumont and Port Arthur, there was no need for you to leave this time).

    But in the end I find it amazing that, when Gustav was just a 60-mph tropical storm bouncing around Haiti's mountains, we could predict where it would be 120 hours later with such precision

    Finally, the season's ninth tropical depression has formed and it may ultimately threaten the United States. There's lots of other tropical activity elsewhere, too, and I'll have a full update today shortly after noon.
     
  10. Dubious

    Dubious Member

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    Better predictions and practiced responses is the best antidote to Katrina-like disasters. You can't do anything about Mother Nature but it's great to be able to get people out of her way.

    Government can do things, the people just need to require them to do it well.
     
  11. TMac640

    TMac640 Contributing Member

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    As every hurricane that is ever heading towards Houston until the end of time. Why in the world people trip out about these I have no ****ing idea, it's hilarious. Operation Nuke New Orleans is underway :)
     
  12. bladeage

    bladeage Member

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    latest predicitions for Ike..
    [​IMG]
     
  13. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Atomic Playboy
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    Hats off ? The hurricane barely had the power to blow leaves off a tree much less a hat off someones head.

    Another over hyped, sensational, rating grabbing Charlie Foxtrot -- and -- they badly missed on the intensity of the storm.

    If you look back -- since the great 1900 storm in Galveston forecasting is not that much better -- now we just have the pretty satellite views.
     
  14. IROC it

    IROC it Member

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  15. Coach AI

    Coach AI Member

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    According to that article, they predicted landfall at 115mph, and it hit at 110. That's not too bad a miss.
     
  16. BrieflySpeaking

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    seems like hurricanes dont like to hit Houston :cool:
     
  17. Lil Pun

    Lil Pun Member

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    LOL! I hope that's not real. ;)
     
  18. tigereye

    tigereye Member

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    Here we go again......

    WGNO in New Orleans is reporting a levee is about to give way....stay tuned
     
  19. tigereye

    tigereye Member

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    To follow up: Levee is in Plaquemines Parish
     
  20. tulexan

    tulexan Member

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    If I heard correctly, I thought they also said that it is a privately built levee.
     

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