We're on the east side. I don't see us getting much, if anything from this storm unless it takes a major westward turn, and with a new eye wall forming, it's still looking like a NW track. The major rains will be to the east of the storm pulling in all of the gulf moisture.
Eh, not really -- like most storms, the western side of this isn't very fierce. If you're 120 miles away (as Beaumont would be, once it got to Lafayette) and 200 miles away (as Houston would be), I don't think it would be that big of a deal. Now, those to the east of it -- including New Orleans -- will have one hell of a rain event, if that holds.
It is interesting that Channel 13 and Channel 11 in Houston have their regular M - F anchors doing the 10 pm broadcasts on a Sunday night.
What satellite pictures are you looking at? The West side of this storm is larger than the the East, though that looks to be changing. I think what Donny is getting at is the projections of the storm turning west and backtracking to the coast after landfall.... and possible Allison type rainfall depending on the time spent over one area.
I'm going more off the New Orleans radar at this point than the satellite. There are more clouds on the west, I agree on that, but the heavy precip bands seem to be north and east, like usual.
It doesn't look like Houston will be getting much rain at all. The 3 day forecast is predicting the rain to be heaviest in northwest Lousiana right at the junction of Arkansas and Texas.
Agreed. It looks like Shreveport would get more rain than Beaumont. Beaumont is on the clean side(Southwest) with mostly wind but very little rain.
I wouldn't count on one forecast to make that judgment. Remember it will all depend on when and if it makes that sharp SW turn, at what speed and how well it holds together. You can't look at 1 forecast chart and make that prediction. No one knows exactly the path this thing will take.
From listening to the local TV stations in New Orleans, the consensus seems to be New Orleans will not take the worst of the hit from Gustav. One station just interviewed a guy from the National Hurricane Center and it doesn't appear a repeat of the Katrina catastrophe will happen.
Absolutely. One thing that's not at all an exact science is forecasting a tropical system over land. Remember the doom and gloom predictions post-Rita, of how the storm would stall around the DFW area and soak Dallas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana with 15-20 inches of rain for days? Kept right on going and they barely got anything. Once they reach land, the models don't seem nearly as accurate.
Even if it does make that sharp turn on the HWRF side, Beaumont would be on the east side. Even though lpb man says the west side is bigger than the east side on the satellite, I doubt the western side of the storm is as bad as the east.
so what does that mean.. actually..? moving more west.. or unexpectedly east... sparing NO... or being no more than a Cat 1 by the time it makes landfall..?
Sorry. Moving more west, which means the surge and winds hitting New Orleans won't be anything close to cat 3. I'll give you some numbers later.
