There is a big eye forming now. Bigger eyes mean the storm can sustain its strength for a longer period of time (after making landfall).
MORE ON HURRICANE RITA... So I left on that Wednesday, Sept. 21 for Dallas. I never was able to check wunderground that day or again to see what Jeff Masters was saying about that storm...so I just did...to see what he was saying about that storm while many were getting out of town. I'm happy to know so many of you are so much smarter than Masters is regarding hurricane forecasting of landfall location and intensity. Or maybe you'll say that Masters was part of the grand conspiracy to blow all of this out of proportion. But after we were all leaving Wednesday night, Jeff Masters was still projecting landfall of a Cat 4 at Galveston. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=132&tstamp=200509 Posted by: JeffMasters, 10:16 AM EDT on September 21, 2005 It's been a long time since Texas had a severe hurricane. Hurricane Bret hit the state in 1999 as a Category 4 hurricane, but was small and hit the relatively unpopulated Padre Island National Seashore. Bret gave Texas the unique distinction of being the only state to get hit by a Category 4 hurricane that didn't get its name retired. In 1988, Hurricane Gilbert, the strongest hurricane of all time, just missed Texas, hitting south of the border. The last hurricane to do serious damage to Texas was Hurricane Alica of 1983, which hit Galveston as a weak Category 3 storm, pushing a 10 - 12 foot storm surge into Galveston Bay. Alica killed 21 people, and its $2 billion price tag was the highest in Texas hurricane history. Texas's luck is about to change. Rita, looking more and more like a nightmare copy of Katrina somehow displaced in time, will make sure of that. The forecast models we so heavily rely on did not anticipate another Katrina-like storm when Rita first formed and plowed through the Florida Straits. But now, the forecasts mirror the reality unfolding today in the Gulf of Mexico. Rita will be another huge destructive hurricane for the Gulf Coast. This time, it is Texas's turn. Every other state on the Gulf Coast has borne the burden of the immense destruction created by our unprecedented onslaught of intense hurricanes the past two hurricane seasons. No state will be left out. Rita's future intensity will largely be controlled by impossible-to-predict eyewall replacement cycles. Rita is growing large enough that she is creating her own upper level environment that will be relatively impervious to any external shearing winds that try to weaken her. I expect Rita to be a Category 4 hurricane at landfall. The landfall location forecast has increased in confidence since yesterday, as the computer models have started to converge on a landfall location on the middle Texas coast. Western Louisiana still needs to be concerned, as does Corpus Christi, but New Orleans should escape Rita with nothing more than some fairly ordinary thunderstorms in some of the outermost spiral bands. A significant storm surge capable of flooding New Orleans is very unlikely. A very significant storm surge is expected along and to the right of where Rita makes landfall on the Texas coast. Surge heights may reach 18 feet or higher, breaking the record 18.5 foot storm surge seen in 1961 during the Category 4 Hurricane Carla. Rita's future intensity will largely be controlled by impossible-to-predict eyewall replacement cycles. Rita is growing large enough that she is creating her own upper level environment that will be relatively impervious to any external shearing winds that try to weaken her. I expect Rita to be a Category 4 hurricane at landfall. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=135&tstamp=200509 Posted by: JeffMasters, 8:40 PM EDT on September 21, 2005 The latest runs of two key computer models, the GFS and GFDL, now indicate that the trough of low pressure that was expected to pick up Rita and pull her rapidly northward through Texas will not be strong enough to do so. Instead, these models forecast that Rita will make landfall near Galveston, penetrate inland between 50 and 200 miles, then slowly drift southwestward for nearly two days, as a high pressure ridge will build in to her north. Finally, a second trough is forecast to lift Rita out of Texas on Tuesday. If this scenario develops, not only will the coast receive catastrophic damage from the storm surge, but interior Texas, including the Dallas/Fort Worth area, might see a deluge of 15 - 30 inches of rain. A huge portion of Texas would be a disaster area. We'll have to wait for the next set of model runs due out by tomorrow morning to know better.
http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/ August 31, 2008 Odds increasing that New Orleans will be spared the worst 4 p.m. UPDATE: The hurricane center has shifted its forecast track slightly west, reflecting the computer model changes discussed below. In their discussion the forecasters add that minor adjustments further to the west may be necessary. This shift, as I discussed below, diminishes the chances of a catastrophic blow to New Orleans. The likelihood of hurricane force winds in the Big Easy is now just 44 percent, and it would take winds stronger than that to cause significant flooding. Although the track has shifted west the likelihood of serious effects in the Golden Triangle remains only about 10 percent, with much lower chances in Houston. Tonight, approximately 12 hours before landfall, I will have a comprehensive update on the anticipated weather effects of Gustav for Houston, Beaumont and New Orleans.
Like a field goal!!! Go cleanly between NOLA and Houston!! As I say that I realize it minimizes the crap the people living in between will be forced to deal with. And that sucks.
Is there a satellite view or something that gives real-time updates on the pressure? The latest I can find is the 4 PM update which shows it at 957mb.
For Hurricane Hunter updates I have always used this website. Its a pretty good site: http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ Right now the storm is at 956mb as of the last update.
Maybe sometime in the morning in LA. It's moving at a decent pace right now. Might catch some people by surprise. Look how much better the satellite presentation is since earlier today. Gustav Down to 951mb now. Still no sign of a left bend. Seems to be headed straight for New Orleans while intensifying.
Apparently these guys live right outside of Houma, LA and are doing a live feed of their hurricane party. This could end badly. http://www.gregledet.net/hurricam/hurricam.html
That is beyond stupid. Pressure now down to 950mb. I'm predicting Gold, Silver and Bronze for the Darwin Awards among those 3.
