Again, I don't want to derail the thread, but... Yes I remember it well. I had to return from Los Angeles two days early because of it. But hurricanes don't stay at cat 5 strength very long. The fact it was a cat 5 while 4 days away from Houston was proof it wouldn't be a cat 5 at landfall. So your "if" scenario has no merit. IIRC, Rita was barely a cat 3 at landfall. If the circumstances come about that a hurricane is likely at or near cat 5 strength when hitting Galveston, it will be a tragedy for Texas. And it certainly looks like Gustav will be a tragedy for New Orleans, maybe much worse than even Katrina.
I'm watching the live WDSU feed out of New Orleans. This is pretty fascinating and brings back so many memories of 2005. Anyone remember the name of that blog a couple guys did during Katrina when they were holed up in an office building in New Orleans? I'm curious if there is something similar this time around.
Before it hit, when I described the Rita hysteria to my sister on the phone (who lives in Virginia), she coined the phrase "Katrina Syndrome" to describe it. I'll say it again: No Katrina = no hysterical evacuation of Houston for Rita. Some of those poor folks clogging the roads drove northeast of Houston, directly into Rita's path and should have stayed at home.
Well that's dumb....there were people evacuating from areas north of I-10 even. I mean, if the government tells you NO YOU DON'T HAVE TO LEAVE, LISTEN FOR ONCE! It might be the only thing government is good for... lol
The new models should be out in a few minutes. Anyone know of a site other than weather underground that updates the models? Wunderground seems to not post the models until about 45 mins past the hour.
that's strange... beaumont was in the cone of uncertainty wasn't it... ? it was projected to make landfall somewhere between Galvaston and Beaumont... why would they move northeast.. or north for that matter?
We have some new model runs out once again. These are the 0z model runs for August 1st. First up the 0z UKMET. Essentially no change for Gustave but this model does bring Hanna back into the Gulf again. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2008083100&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation Second is the 0z CMC. No change for Gustav. This one though shows southern Florida taking a direct hit from Hanna. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2008083100&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation Third is the 0z GFS. Again no noticeable change in track for Gustav. This one keeps Hanna out of the Gulf but does something interesting with her towards the end of the run. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2008083018&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation Fourth is the 0z HWRF. The track for Gustav shifts a little more to the east in this run compared to the last. http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf/gustav07l.2008083100/gustav07l.2008083100_anim.html And finally the 0z GFDL. Essentially no noticeable change in track for this run as well. http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl/gustav07l.2008083100/gustav07l.2008083100_anim.html
I'm sorry... I forgot to google hurricanes about what a hurricane can and can't do. LOL proof... It doesn't require a cat 5 to devastate Galveston. It's unlikely that a hurricane will SUSTAIN cat 5 strength but that doesn't mean it won't become a cat 5 just before landfall like Andrew. Looking at hurricane (Rita) that produced 235 mph wind gusts and saying "whew it won't hit for a few days" isn't going to be the overall reaction in the populace in the "cone of uncertainty". Point being that people had every right to be scared @#$less, irrespective of Katrina.
Because they left as (or right before) it was projected that Rita would curve north, i.e, before it was logical to make a decision. I hate mentioning his name but I'll do it: Until the last uttermost minute, the jerk Neil Frank was showing the correct projected path but he STILL told people Rita might "weeble wobble" and hit Galveston & Houston. It was shameful. What mad me even madder was by that time, it was 100% certain even if Rita hit Galveston that it did not merit evacuation of Houston because it was questionable Rita would still be a cat 3 at landfall. On the other hand, a good weatherman like Frank Billingsly laid it out clearly and even projected the maximum likely wind strengths for various parts of Harris and Ft. Bend counties. The contrast between the two weathermen was incredible. The problem was the wrong guy was much more popular than the other. lbpman, I'm not disputing Galveston and the gulf areas needed to evacuate. I'm strictly talking about HOUSTON and beyond. The stupid evacuation of Houston prevented the people who really needed to evacuate from being able to do so safely and quickly. Hope that clarifies things. You don't remember the Galveston County commissioner who ripped Bill White up and down for encouraging Houstonians to evacuate (thereby causing his evacuees to get stuck on the road for over 24 hours)?
This is true. Case in point Hurricane Carla. Which was a category 4 for that made landfall near Port Lavaca. It wasn't a direct hit but it put Galveston on the crappy side of the storm. There was a moderate amount of storm surge damage and Carla even graced downtown Galveston with an F4 twister that took a couple of lives and caused a lot of damage.
I should have also added that some hurricanes strengthen, some weaken, as they approach landfall. This is predictable most of the time. Rita was weakening at a good rate. The category 5 monster of 3-4 days prior was long gone and curving north two days before landfall.
No I don't recall, I was in the Lake Charles area at the time. That's a very dangerous assumption to make. As far as the evacuation of Houston, I agree that Galveston should have been allowed to evacuate first. BUT, if Rita had hit Houston directly, I think you underestimate the damage and power of that storm 50+ miles inland. Most homes had roof damage and older, less well built homes were uninhabitable. Even rock solid buildings were demolished by debris. I don't think an evacuation of millions would have been unreasonable had Rita made a direct hit. No power, clean water, ice etc for a period of time that could ostensibly be weeks to months in some areas...that would be an extraordinary disaster considering the number of people affected. Considering how long it takes to get people out I don't think it was a gross over reaction to the situation. I wasn't in Houston so it might have been premature to make the call.
Over the years, several cat 3 storms have hit Texas before without an evacuation of Houston. The building codes and flood control in the city now are much better than they were 20, 30, 40 years ago. Plus, a hurricane cannot directly hit Houston like New Orleans (which is like a sitting duck on a platter).
