[Gustav] New Tropical Threat

oh yeaaa, i like the hype these things bring, then at the end we get punked like always

 

Models have this thing all over the place. I won't worry about it until Sunday or Monday. I may just buy the plywood that I've been procrastinating about for a year in the next few days anyway just to be safe.

P.S. Thank God for Clutchfans. I don't watch the local news and wouldn't even know about this thing if it wasn't for this BBS.

 

If it stays over open water, particularly in the Gulf where wind shear is low and an upper level anti-cyclone is forming, this could easily go well beyond a cat 3. A lot is going to depend on its interaction with land over the next 3 days.

Now that there is a legit center of circulation, the model runs in the morning will be better able to predict a projected path. It's pretty similar to Fay - just a little westward.

 

Not to be a doomsayer, but the latest GFDL has Gustav entering the Gulf and intensifying to a category 4 hurricane with winds at 120 knots Sunday morning taking aim at the upper Texas coast.

 

Any idea of when it would make landfall?

 

I had a bad feeling about this one yesterday. Interestingly, virtually all the national news/weather outlets have it going to Florida. This is the only place I found that suggests a more western path. What prediction sites are you guys using? Rita hit as a cat 3 (Eastern Texas), and I have still not recovered; I lost 60 trees. A cat 4 or 5 into Galveston/Houston is a worst case scenario. We have no idea what that would be like.

 

Lets say that this this does make a landfall somewhere along or near the TX coast, when can we expect that to be?

 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

 

I'm supposed to come into Houston this weekend. I was planning on my first Astros game in 2 years. Hope this doesn't ruin my trip. I'm looking forward to getting that Astros car sunshade.

 

It makes so much sense now!

 

Here is the direct link to the latest GFDL java animation:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008082518-gustav07l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=

 

GOOOOO UKMET!

Pretty happy with the GFDL as it hasn't predicted one right path/storm this year.

 

****... I won't believe the hype.

 

The last tropical update on the Weather channel had it running the same basic track as Faye.

DD

 

That's certainly a lot different from the models shown above.

Edit: That's a wide ass cone of uncertainy.

 

Be prepared folks. Models are zeroing in on this thing becoming a monster in the central gulf.

 

Woah, that is certainly different than the TV cast they had on their website. Now the forecast has it goine South of Cuba and maybe into the Gulf of Mexico....

It is also forecast to be a major hurricane....YIKES !!

DD