Having used those models, they aren't any better than those that the NWS reports. I'm glad about the oil price, but they are as much a guess as any other.
I agree they have been forcasting Gustav to be a major hurricane, but not this soon. The forcast models had it to be a cat 1 or 2 today and become a cat 3 on Sunday. It wasn't forcasted to go from a weak cat 1 to a mid cat 3 in about 12 hours.
no you dont. you dont want a hurricane here. if you want to experience a hurricane go somewhere else and experience it
I don't think it's insensitive for me to say I'd much rather New Orleans get hit by a hurricane than Houston.
I'd rather New Orleans get hit as well. Since almost the entire population will be evacuated before landfall it would be a ghost town when Gustav arrives.
Are you guys debating which metro area would be better getting hit by Gustav? Its a terrible choice either way but given the damage to NOLA already and its fragile recovery Houston could probably handle Gustav better now. Anyway it would probably be best if this thing just fizzled out.
this thing aint gonna fizzle out. this is going to be a major storm no matter where it hits. it has nothing but open waters after jamaica. we are scrwed!
As it has been...we really won't know for sure until late in the game when and if it's gonna make that westward turn. Not a lot of time to work with if it starts to turn towards Texas right before landfall. I'm not thrilled with the idea of it making landfall here or anywhere else as Cat. 4. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1051&tstamp=200808 The GFDL forecasts a Category 4 storm at landfall, with Category 1 winds affecting New Orleans. It is the fastest model, bringing Gustav ashore Monday afternoon. The other solution, offered by the UKMET and ECMWF models, is to turn Gustav westwards towards Texas just before landfall in Central Louisiana Monday afternoon. The HWRF is in between, taking Gustav to the coast of western Louisiana as a Category 3 storm, then turning the storm southwestward along the Texas coast as a tropical storm. While the official NHC forecast taking Gustav ashore over central Louisiana is the most probable one, a significant chance exists of a landfall farther west, perhaps even as far west as Corpus Christi, Texas.
If evacuations are ordered this is how it would be done. I think "C" would only be asked to evacuate for a cat 4 or 5. If your zip code is not in this list or are in the white shaded area you'll never be asked to evacuate. All the people evacuating from the white shaded area is what caused such huge problems during Rita.
Surprisingly, CNN weather had it down to being a CAT 1 when it makes landfall in the U.S. even though they showed it as a 3+ prior to hitting Cuba.
This is storm is LEGIT, when Rita hit I said it was nothing, and it wasn't. Now I'm saying Gustav is the real deal, it's going to hit hard.
Evacuation buses arrive in (Galveston) county By Chris Paschenko The Daily News Published August 30, 2008 TEXAS CITY — About 200 coach-style buses are arriving in Texas City today, but an emergency official stressed he didn’t think the county would have to use them to evacuate residents ahead of Hurricane Gustav. Bruce Clawson, emergency management coordinator for Texas City, said the state is sending 200 buses from Austin to stage at Texas City High School. Meanwhile, the city of Galveston issued an advisory about noon saying city leaders continued to monitor the storm, but did not foresee needing to call an evacuation. At 10 a.m. today, a map from the National Weather Service showed Gustav south of Cuba and entering the Gulf of Mexico either late tonight or early Sunday. The map shows Gustav’s estimated landfall along the central Louisiana coast, but its cone of uncertainty extended from Mississippi to Southern Texas. Gustav already had developed into a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of about 125 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. The buses would be used to evacuate Galveston County residents if Gustav turned this way, Clawson said. “We don’t plan on using the buses, but once we start things, we just can’t stop them,” Clawson said “The buses have to keep coming, and we store them here.” The bus mobilization is part of a more than a $20 million effort undertaken by the state to help evacuate residents who can’t evacuate themselves, Clawson said. Clawson said the decision would be made Sunday whether to begin evacuating or to return the buses to staging areas in Houston and Austin. “We got everybody’s telephone number and will call with instructions,” Clawson said. Clawson estimated 5,000 people could need bus transport to shelters in Austin. “We have 600 in Texas City and about 1,100 or 1,200 on the Mainland and several thousand in Galveston,” Clawson said. The buses amass in Austin, where state troopers inspect the vehicles to ensure they’re safe, Clawson said. Some buses would have assistance from medical residents from the University of Texas Medical Branch. Clawson said the state learned a lesson with evacuating during Hurricane Rita in September 2005. “During Rita, we sent out everybody on school buses, with no restrooms,” Clawson said. “It wasn’t that comfortable and they traveled a long distance, but it worked and would have saved lives.”
