Legendary Gustav strengthens into a hurricane Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said Friday afternoon that Gustav had grown into a Category 1 storm, and remained on track to strike anywhere from the Florida Panhandle to eastern Texas sometime next week. The news came only hours after New Orleans lay to rest the last seven unclaimed Katrina victims. A horse-drawn carriage brought the bodies for entombment at a memorial site, and the mayor helped guide a gleaming casket into a mausoleum. The ceremonies were tinged with an awareness of how far the city has come since Katrina, but also a trepidation about the possibility of another storm. "We look ahead to a better day, as we also prepare ourselves for another threat," Mayor Ray Nagin said as he helped guide a gleaming coffin into a mausoleum. Most other remembrances were called off as officials scurried to plan for Hurricane Gustav. National Guard members were reporting to armories, while some nursing homes and hospitals planned to start moving patients further inland and the state began moving 9,000 inmates from coastal lockups. "I think God is reminding us that on the eve of Katrina, God can bring nature back," said Russell Honore, the retired Army General who headed up rescue efforts three years ago. Gustav has been blamed for 71 deaths on its path through Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Jamaica. Along the Gulf Coast, officials were preparing for the possibility of major evacuations should the storm stay on track. Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour had already called for the evacuation of Katrina-scarred residents still living in trailers and other temporary housing along the state's 70-mile coastline. The mayor of Grand Isle, La., also called for voluntary evacuations. President Bush declared an emergency in Louisiana, a move that allows the federal government to coordinate disaster relief and provide assistance in storm-affected areas. A federal declaration before a storm is rare, but Bush took a similar action for Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida before Katrina's landfall. An evacuation order for New Orleans was likely, Nagin said, but not before Saturday. Gustav confounded emergency preparedness officials as its forecast track shifted slightly through the day, confronting them with the possibility of ordering evacuations not only in the potentially vulnerable New Orleans area but across more than 200 miles of coastline. Harvey Johnson, deputy administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, said during a conference call that he expects a "huge number" of Gulf Coast residents will be told to leave the region this weekend. New Orleans said it is prepared to move 30,000 residents in an evacuation; estimates put the city's current population between 310,000 to 340,000 people. There were about 454,000 here before Katrina hit. Unlike Katrina, there will be no massive shelter at the Superdome, in fact, no shelter at all was planned for the city. It was unclear what would happen to those left behind. The first 150 of 700 buses to move residents inland arrived at a staging area near New Orleans on Thursday. At 2 p.m. EDT, Gustav's center was about 126 miles east-southeast of Grand Cayman. The storm was predicted to pass on or near the Cayman Islands later Friday, then over western Cuba on Saturday before heading into the Gulf. Forecasters said for the first time that there's a better than ever chance that New Orleans will feel at least tropical storm-force winds. There was much less confidence in whether the city would get hit by hurricane-force winds. Melissa Clark, who lives in neighboring Jefferson Parish, said she's leaving Friday with her family to stay with friends in Clinton, Miss. — evacuation order or not. Her husband, who works in maintenance at a nearby hospital, will stay behind. "I'm not taking any chances this time," the 35-year-old mother of three teenagers said as she waited fifth in line at a Wal-Mart gas station Thursday.
http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2008/08/dont_freak_out.html Don't freak out about the newest models, but... UPDATED 5:50 p.m. UPDATE: I asked senior hurricane specialist Rick Knabb why he didn't shift the official forecast westward this afternoon, and whether it was because he was waiting to see if the models persisted with their westward trend tonight. He was gracious enough to reply, writing: That's part of the reason, but I've also been looking at run-to-run stability among the models, which leads me to be conservative about making changes. Consider that the individual models have bounced back and forth (left and right) during the past 24-36 hours. Last night, for example, the GFS shifted dramatically to the right, then back left today (and I'm still left of its 120-h point). The consensus has remained more stable, and I'm not that far east of it this afternoon. If it stays where it is for a while or shifts farther west, maybe we'll shift west. But it could also shift the other way, back to where the official track is (or even farther east). One can hope that the G-IV mission tonight will give the models more/better data and get them into better agreement and maybe there will be more run-to-run stability too. 4 p.m. UPDATE: The National Hurricane Center's latest forecast track doesn't change much, and I probably should have anticipated this. What's happening here is that the senior hurricane specialists don't like the official forecast to flop around as much as the models, so they will wait until the next run (to be released around 7 p.m.) to see if there is any consistency. If the westward trend persists you can rest assured the official track will follow at 10 p.m. CT. ORIGINAL ENTRY: The latest computer models have been released and they reflect a distinct shift westward, toward Texas, for Hurricane Gustav's path. This almost certainly presages a similar shift in the National Hurricane Center's forecast track that will be released at 4 p.m. CT. Each of the newest models now appear to show an influence from a high pressure system forecast to build southward from the Great Lakes region, which would push Gustav west. What this means is that we're looking at storm that will probably make landfall in Louisiana or Texas. I cannot overstate the tendency of models to flip-flop with their forecasts like a pair of windshield wipers, so it's entirely plausible that the models will move back toward eastern Louisiana tonight. But as of now the computers foresee a greater chance of a Texas storm than they did this morning. And seeing that they all now mark the influence of the Great Lakes high pressure system, my sense is that this westward trend in the models might just be something that sticks. Areas from Corpus Christi to New Orleans appear to be at the greatest risk of a direct hit by Gustav. As I mentioned in the chat earlier today, my prediction for the last couple of days has been the Texas-Louisiana border. We shall see, as much uncertainty remains and I don't think we'll really know with Gustav until at least Sunday morning. I'll be back later this afternoon with a look at why landfall location is so critical to storm surge.
Latest 18z models for the Aug 29th GFDL, HWRF tracks are out. Link to the HWRF track: http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf/gustav07l.2008082918/gustav07l.2008082918_anim.html Snapshot of 18z Aug 29th HWRF predicted landfall: Link to the GFDL track: http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl/gustav07l.2008082918/gustav07l.2008082918_anim.html Snapshot of 18z Aug 29th GFDL predicted landfall:
Changes: GFDL & HWRF again shifted a little more west, UKMET and GFS stayed the same and the NGFDL & NOGAPS move back into LA.
Hmm that is interesting that Wunderground put the HWRF landfall there on the border because the 18z models which all these current tracks are based on actually has Gustav making landfall farther east here in Louisiana and then reemerging back out into the Gulf here .
im not liking how these models keep shifting west...its making me a bit uneasy......should i think of boarding up my house in houston?...tomorrow?
Nobody will know until the latest models run once it hits the gulf. Hopefully no wobble to the west after the hit on Cuba. It sure does seem that all the models are now in agreement with a LA landfall though. I still won't feel safe until the Sunday models are run, though.
Will this thing just hurry up and hit somewhere. I'm freaking watching King of the Hill and they break in at the beginning to give us that all important update 72 hours from landfall. At 11:00pm. On a Friday night. Jeeeeez.
I think whats even more sad than that is the fact that your actually at home on a friday night watching king of the hill and complaining about it getting interrupted. Are you serious? Or just messing with us? I can't tell.
LOL. Sorry dude, I totally thought the same thing and couldn't figure out if you were serious or not.
