This would all depend on the size of the storm. The bigger the storm is, the less likely it is to be influenced by the high pressure. The models that carry the most weight are predicting a Cat 3 or 4 hitting the LA/MS border. It's still way too early to know the path, but those models have been the most consistent so far. The NHC cone even changed a bit to the east at the 11AM posting. This storm is blowing up though. Dr. Masters is predicting a CAT 4 before it even hits the west end of Cuba.
Should we call this the Katrina effect. Looks like they are giving New Orleans a Dr. Neil Frank'ing. The problem is some of the decision makers in my area will use this as a reason to relax, because the NHC obviously know it is going to SE Louisiana. I hope we don't see them surfing on their front doors on Wednesday.
If anyone of those 3 models taking it into LA are correct, that means hurricane force winds in NOLA. Yikes.
For those interested, the Chronicle science guy is having a live chat about Gustav right now: http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/hurricanes/gustav/
yeah, I agree. That's why I go with unlikely rather than impossible. Im still not seeing Hannah and Gus getting near enough to each other for the Fuji effect to have any relevence. Hannah is in a area of weak steering currents and doesnt seem likely to make it near enough the GOM before Gus finally gets close to the coast. Both storms are going very slow...the big factor in their interaction appears to be the H that is currently blocking Gus from curving more northerly. If it remains in place, it should help steer Gus westerly and Hannah southerly...like alot of the models are forecasting at this time. As we keep saying tho, things are weird out there right now, and they are both too far out to make any definitive statements at this time. Everyone here definitely needs to keep their eyes on this for the next few days at least, once it enters the GOM, it hits prime intensification factors and none of us are safe from the mid Texas coast to the FL panhandle.
Wow...they all shifted west except for GFDL, right? will be interesting to see if there's a wobble after passing over cuba.
Eww, I don't like this update!! But the most accurate model is GFDL right? Geez, this storm is moving at a sloooow pace.
Don't worry about it. The models might as well tell you where it isn't going to hit. This thing will move WNW, scrape cancun and nail Mexico. Bet the house on it.
the oil traders or betting florida today. oil was basically flat. fyi, they get their own models for private services
my brother works for a group that trades oil...he's saying their models are pointing in the same general direction the ones you and i are looking at.
well cnbc was saying that some oil traders have models from other weather services taking a sharper turn to the north, therefore avoiding the area of the platforms, moving more off the florida panhandle coast. therefore they aren't betting on supply disruptions
