http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/ Gustav goes south. Intensity goes north. Uncertainty abounds. As often happens with tropical weather, Tropical Storm Gustav has taken an unpredictable turn overnight. Let's talk about it. WHAT WE KNOW The storm's center re-formed to the south of its original position and now Gustav is only about 80 miles east of Jamaica. This has caused a shift in some of the computer model forecasts toward the Texas coast. Now over water the storm has quickly strengthened into a 70-mph tropical storm this morning, and further intensification seems likely later today. Yet although waters are warm in the Caribbean Sea and wind shear quite low, interaction with Jamaica should inhibit the rapid intensification of Gustav into a major hurricane for at least a day or two as the storm passes near the island's southern edge. WHAT WE DON'T KNOW The high-pressure ridge over Florida apparently pushed Gustav's center southward over night. What will happen to the ridge now? Will it continue to expand and push the storm west? Or will it weaken and allow a northerly turn? On the plot above we see that the GFDL model still forecasts a northerly turn across Cuba's western edge, bringing Gustav into Mississippi. Another global model that is not shown above, the European ECMWF, predicts a similar path. Yet four other models, all of them generally reliable, now bring the storm to Texas, or the Texas-Louisiana border. The official forecast has remained on Louisiana so far today. But if the GFDL jumps to the left later today, you can bet the official forecast will follow it in bringing the storm to Texas. At this time there's just to much uncertainty to have much confidence in any forecast. With the southward bobble of the storm center we're now, more than likely, still probably five days from a final landfall. The error in such a forecast, then, exceeds 300 miles. Therefore, as I have been cautioning, everywhere from south Texas to the Florida Panhandle remains in play for Gustav's final landfall. The intensity forecast is, if anything, a bigger question mark, but forecasters generally expect a powerful hurricane in the southern Gulf of Mexico within a few days. WHEN WE'LL KNOW IT The good news, from a forecast perspective, is that hurricane hunters will blanket Gustav today and will collect reams of data that will provide better initial conditions for the computer models. The model runs early tomorrow morning, therefore, should have a much better handle on the system's future track. Later today I'll have an entry on the uncertainty inherent in five-day forecasts, and why it's difficult to get too antsy about a storm hitting any particular area at this time. At noon I'll also have a chat right here, so check back then.
hurricane forecasts are officially worthless... they are almost never even a little accurate. hell, how many forecasts had this thing basically stalling between haiti and jamaica for 2+ days? oh, that's right... none of them. these models cant even predict where it will go in 24 hrs., yet they continue to show 3 and 5-day forecasts? laughable.
Quick change again, models just shifted east again The rule seems to be during the day they shift east, overnight they shift west.
I think they are good in that they keep everyone on their toes. No one really has an excuse for not being prepared.
The only thing stopping the New Orleans Saints this year is if this dang Hurricane hits New Orleans **pounds head into a brick wall with wielded spikes**
It's pretty sad when you think about it. Everyone knows this thing is out there. Regardless where it hits, in a few days some lives will be destroyed one way or another. And at the same time I'm hoping to get a little rain from the outer edges of it.
I dunno, but I have a feeling this thing will be coming our way. Just a sneaking suspicion. Guess we wont know until Saturday!
With the current official forecasts and the fact that Hannah is moving almost three times as fast as Gustav, I wonder if they will ever get close enough to one another to influence their respective steering currents.
The tropical wave in the Bay of Campeche will end up over Mexico before it has a chance to develop. Hannah will be an interesting one to watch, but it is most likely never going to hit land. It's just too far east. Gustav is our biggest threat. I still believe we are the western most edge of where it will land, but you never know. You saw with Fay how unpredictable weather can be. But the GFDL, which has really been good this year at forecasting tracks of storms, hasn't swayed much from landfall between Pensacola and New Orleans while the others have bounced around quite a bit the past day. Saturday will put us 3 days out and that will narrow things significantly. Fortunately, I'll be out of town for all of it.
Oh noes! Is a Mega-Katrina "Hypercane" Possible? MIT Scientist Says "Yes" Hurricanejj001 MIT's Kerry Emanuel describes the worst nightmare hurricane that could ever happen -a "hypercane" with winds raging around its center at 500 miles an hour. Water vapor; sea spray and storm debris are spewed into the atmosphere, punching a hole in the stratosphere 20 miles above the Earth's surface; at landfall, its super-gale-force winds would flatten forests and toss boulders with a 60-foot tsunami-like storm surge flooding nearby shores. The water vapor and debris could remain suspended high in the atmosphere for years, disrupting the climate and the ozone layer. Could this happen? Possibly. But this hypercane scenario is one of Emanuels' computer models. A professor at MIT's atmosphere, oceans and climate program, Emanuel studies the physics of hurricanes, deconstructing their behavior, and digs into their geological past -- all to understand what makes these monster storms tick. No one knows for sure how hurricanes get started. The ingredients for cooking one up still remain a mystery. A basic recipe: ocean water 80 degrees or warmer, super humid air, and a bunch of storms with thunderheads. Some assembly still require"Hurricanes are accidents of nature," Emanuel says. Hurricanes don't happen by themselves," he continues. "They literally need to be triggered." To create such a monster storm, parts of the ocean would have to warm up to at least 100 degrees, and only the impact of a large asteroid hitting the tropical ocean or a massive undersea volcano could generate such intense heating. Emanuel and his colleagues theorize that asteroid-triggered hypercanes may have contributed to massive global extinctions millions of years ago. But let's look closer to home and at our strange attitudes towards the potential danger, especially our post-Katrina world. According to a survey conducted by the Harvard School of Public Health Project on the Public and Biological Security, over one third of the inhabitants of high-risk hurricane areas said that if government officials issued a mandatory evacuation due to a major hurricane this season, they would ignore it and stay. The survey was conducted in eight states--Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina and Texas--and only included residents of counties within 20 miles of the coast. The poll included a special sample of the New Orleans metropolitan area. The top reasons for refusing to leave in an emergency revolve around issues of safety and security. Three-quarters (75%) say their home is well-built and they would be safe there. Over half (56%) feel that roads would be too crowded, and slightly more than one in three (36%) feels that evacuating would be dangerous. One-third (33%) worry that their possessions would be stolen or damaged while one in four (27%) say they would not evacuate because they do not want to leave their pets. Robert J. Blendon, Professor of Health Policy and Political Analysis at the Harvard School of Public Health said, "Public officials need to be concerned…officials need to remind people that many homes are vulnerable to major storms. They also need to ensure safe evacuation routes are available and the public is aware of them." If residents of high-risk hurricane areas did have to evacuate because of a major hurricane, most respondents said they would be concerned about the conditions of evacuation shelters. The biggest worries people have are that shelters would be unsanitary (68%), there wouldn't be enough clean water to drink (66%), the shelter would be too crowded (65%), they would be exposed to sick people (62%), and medical care would be lacking (58%). Based on the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina—these fears are not unfounded. The surveys shows that even after Hurricane Katrina, most New Orleans residents (61%) do not know the locations of evacuation shelter if they needed to go to one. "It is worrisome that New Orleans, the site of one of the most severe hurricanes in U.S. history, has such a large proportion of people who don't know the location of an evacuation center," said Professor Blendon. "An important priority for government and voluntary agencies should be to inform people of the location of shelters well before a storm hits." Posted by Rebecca Sato with Casey Kazan.
