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[Graphs] Rockets take good shots, just missing them

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by kevC, Dec 4, 2015.

  1. kevC

    kevC Contributing Member

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    Credit to Malakas for finding this.

    <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="el"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Let's try that again with correctly labeled axis...THIS is silly. <a href="https://t.co/0O0GF4OuBe">pic.twitter.com/0O0GF4OuBe</a></p>&mdash; Seth Partnow (@SethPartnow) <a href="https://twitter.com/SethPartnow/status/672201729459417088">Δεκέμβριος 2, 2015</a></blockquote>
    <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

    <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-conversation="none" lang="el"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Here's the same chart defensively <a href="https://twitter.com/DHorn7">@DHorn7</a> <a href="https://t.co/kMvV4GsZ9D">pic.twitter.com/kMvV4GsZ9D</a></p>&mdash; Seth Partnow (@SethPartnow) <a href="https://twitter.com/SethPartnow/status/672205249147375616">Δεκέμβριος 3, 2015</a></blockquote>
    <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

    From what I understand effective eFG% is some sort of measurement of how good a shot is using SportsVU data.

    My observations:

    1) I remain cautiously optimistic that the Rockets offense will turn around. They lead the league in "good shots", they have just been outrageously bad at making them. Granted, maybe they get those good shots because teams are playing them that way given how poorly they shoot. They can't possibly shoot that bad for a whole season can they?

    2) Their defense has been awful and also at the same time unlucky. Not only do they lead the league in allowing "good shots", but teams even shoot above the expected percentage from there.

    3) Warriors cheat.
     
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  2. shastarocket

    shastarocket Contributing Member

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    That point regarding the defense is hilarious and obscene. Thanks for sharing this

    Is there any way to get the raw data? Small sample size, but I'd like to see how the defense has performed under Mchale vs. Bickerstaff
     
  3. OpenLayup-Why3?

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    Fak hemistri, long liv statistiks
     
  4. bmd

    bmd Member

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    I've thought this throughout the season. They miss open shots that they should be making. From all areas of the court.

    I've watched games specifically looking to see if it was their shot selection that is causing their misses.. and it's really not. They are getting plenty of good looks but they just brick them.
     
  5. rocketsballin

    rocketsballin Member

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    clever way of saying rockets suck
     
  6. bulkatron

    bulkatron Member

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    The problem is through 20 games they don't look to be reversing that trend... So at what point is it no longer a "fluke"?
     
  7. DreamShook

    DreamShook Member

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    It's amazing how wide open they get just to brick every open shot.
     
  8. shastarocket

    shastarocket Contributing Member

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    By the way, how crazy is it that the Grizz are right there with us defensively? Both squads off to a confusing and disappointing start.
     
  9. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Contributing Member

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    It's not just how good the shot is, but who's taking them. There's a reason Brewer and TJones get completely wide open looks all over the place. Also, I don't care what the dot on the half court map shows, a walk up hoisted three early in the shot clock by Harden is NOT a good shot. Huge difference between a set three and one that is dribbled up to, unless your name is Steph Curry.
     
  10. PhiSlamma15

    PhiSlamma15 Member

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    This thread should remain open replacing that "walkng dead" Jeremy Lin thread. So much to chew on here thx for posting this
     
  11. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    So, we are missing our 3s. That's all that chart is saying. The "Expected" part of it for us is just theoretical. Any team in the NBA could create those stats if they want to. You're stupid to try those shots if you can't make them.

    Taking "Good Shots" for our expected eFG% means we rely on the extra point from a three points. Because we are certainly not getting enough easy layups this year like we did last year. We are not getting in transition like last year, and we are not getting scoring from our bench either.
     
  12. Supermac34

    Supermac34 President, Von Wafer Fan Club

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    I'm assuming the "Expected" shot % is a Big Data concept looking at the mass of NBA shots on the whole and calculating the % chance of where shots are successful. While not perfect, the indicator over time is a good one.

    This tells me a couple things: with regression analysis there is a reasonable expectation that our offense will improve as we regress to the mean of the "expected" shot value.

    The other thing it tells me is that our defense is terrible, but could see a slight improvement as teams regress to the mean (they are still "over" shooting against expectations).

    I'd be interested in seeing a correlation chart of the offense v defense...as in if you begin hitting more of the expected shots does your defense stat improve as well because you are giving up less rebounds, fast breaks, etc by making the opponent take the ball out of bounds and begin fresh on a make.
     
  13. PhiSlamma15

    PhiSlamma15 Member

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    Yea that would be definitely great to see. Definitely one of my main head scratchers from the start of this season up to now
     
  14. finsraider

    finsraider Member

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    To me, this says more about our defense than anything. It's been awful.

    If we're going to give a lot of minutes to Harden and Lawson...and we are......we've got to have a rock solid front court on the defensive end. Howard, Capela and DMo can all hold their own.....we need one more guy.
     
  15. malakas

    malakas Member

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    This is the post I made about this in the other thread:
    Yes it is based on shot selection (offence and defence). This in that instance was calculated by Paltnow based on the Sportvu data.
    Pay attention to the defensive one in particular. Analysis has shown that % on 3pointer is much more correlated to NUMBER of 3s a team allows.Also transition offence as we all know allows the best fg%.
    As you see in the sheme the Rockets allow the opponents offence to get what it wants basically. That's why we suck.
    It's not because we have been "unlucky" with the opponents hitting the shots. It's because they find those shots and hit them.

    Our offence on the other hand clearly demonstrates that it should be much better because our shot selection is perfect and that we can't hit the wide side of the barn.

    These charts can predict a lot of times regression. So based on this the msot likely outcome is that our offence will improve drastically but our defence will remain bottom 3 in the league.

    You can tweet Seth about this or Nyloncalculus. Or ask him to make the chart if he can. He often replies to people and explains questions as well for stats etc. He's one of the most helpful and insightful basketball people on tweeter in my opinion.
     
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  16. malakas

    malakas Member

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    It doesn't take into account WHO takes them (if he's Curry Korver or ..well Brewer) but it definitely takes into account if the 3pointer was shot half court and if it we unguarded or not (by the distance of nearer defender).
    The efg% of a shot guarded vs unguarded is different as well the efg% of a shot half court or near the 3point line even if both would count as 3pointers.
     
  17. joeson332

    joeson332 Member

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  18. PhiSlammaJamma

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    But what does astrology have to say? We be Rockets.
     
  19. SemisolidSnake

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    I'm assuming we're getting "good" shots precisely because nobody expects us to make them. Seems like a pretty good assumption actually. If the team actually started making its shots, defenses would adjust to contest more of them, and our atrocious ball movement would not be able to counter that.
     
  20. malakas

    malakas Member

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    Up to a point. Teams dont' change their whole defensive sheme for a matchup in RS. We still get the most unguarded 3s in the league.
    And as I said the analysis has shown that the % of 3pointers a team makes is correlated mostly on the raw number of 3s it allows.
    If teams leave unguarded 3s, the data suggests that sooner or later we will make them.
    That's why its regression stat. Our efg% WILL rise.

    And also if the teams started guarding more of our 3s,they would stretch their defence, the paint will become less packed and we will get more good shots near the basket.
     

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