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[Grantland] Zach Lowe and the Parsons Plan

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by hizzobbes, Aug 9, 2013.

  1. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Contributing Member

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    The wierd thing about this line of thinking is 1.) no one really penalizes Phil Jackson at all, or puts an asterisk next to his ten championships just because he had superstars every time he won them; and 2.) Lebron kind of already has this line of criticism against him for the two championships he already won. And even then that criticism becomes moot when you put it all down on paper. Lebron has two championships. Period. No caveat can take that away from him. I'm sure he knows this two. Now that he has a taste, though, the real question is, how far is he willing to go to maintain his run? He has no relationship to Houston the way he does with Cleveland and Miami, but still...

    It's a scary thought to realize that we really would be his best chance to win more championships once he opts out of his deal next summer.

    No other team is as good as we are, with anything close to the max to offer to take him on. I get goosebumps just thinking about it.
     
  2. ejarts

    ejarts Member

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    Can Teams offer Parsons a Poison Pill Contract? Would be funny if Knicks ended up offering him that after Melo leaves for Lakers.
     
  3. ejarts

    ejarts Member

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    Didn't you hear about the Finals, Lakers VS Detroit, A team full of superstars VS a bunch of role players?
    It's not that easy to win. Phil can manage egos which is hard for professional sports. He invented a triangle offense.

    He's not your average coach. That's what seperate greatness. M
     
  4. hizzobbes

    hizzobbes Member

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    No, this was discussed a couple pages back. Only guys with 1 to 2 years experience can get a back loaded contract in accordance with the Arenas provision.

    Normal contracts can only have a 4.5% raise.
     
  5. Voice of Aus

    Voice of Aus Contributing Member

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    nope poison pills are only for for people who are free agents when they have only played 2 years..

    Parsons is minimum 3 years if we renounce his rights this year or 4 if we pick up his final year
     
  6. jch1911

    jch1911 Member

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    Not sure if you are being serious re: Triangle Offense (which was famously created by Tex Winter), who happened to be one of Phil's top lieutenants.

    Also, Tex was a former head coach of these Rox! :grin:
     
  7. LandryFields

    LandryFields Member

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    There is no way you can predict what the cap would be when it doesn't even get announced until the summer. And like another poster pointed out, it's highly unlikely that it will jump to that high. Even if it does, my point STILL remains... 15 million is not enough to sign Love or Aldridge to the max when their current contracts expire. Their max salary will be much higher than that.
     
  8. jch1911

    jch1911 Member

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    Bima or Ballholic (do you watch Boondocks, Ballholic? Just curious)...

    What would be long-term impact if say during the course of the season, the Timberwolves find themselves sitting at 19 - 33 (could happen!) and decide to get the best deal they can for Love, who at this point decides he wants to be playoffs / fighting for a championship?

    Would a three-team trade involving the Rox, Wolves, & Celtics be feasible?

    Let's say:
    Rox: KLove + C. Johnson
    Wolves: Humphries' expiring contract + Courtney Lee + Terrence Jones + LAC's 2015 1st round (via BOS) + Houston's 2014 & 2016 1st round picks
    Celtics: Asik + D. Williams

    Klove moves to a contender. He can give the team minutes at C, when not playing the 4. Johnson is a shot-blocker extraordinaire who can take Camby's minutes in blow-outs and against weaker teams.

    Wolves pick up Minnesota native Humphries to just rebound and fire outlet passes to Rubio. Plus, his expiring contract saves them some much needed space in 2014 - 2015. (He could even re-sign with his homestate team at a discount.) Courtney gets reunited with Coach Adelman to play a role as a key reserve. Moreover, promising rookie Terrence Jones (or D-Mo) is included to serve as potentially a cheap upgrade over D. Williams. The 1st round picks (probably low 20's on each) serve as icing to ensure the Wolves can sell their fan base that they are essence getting 6 1st round picks for K Love.

    Celtics get a starting center to pair with whatever promising young wing player they draft in the lottery. (Asik does deserve to start and Ainge recognizes that securing a top flight center is hard to do.) The Celtics take on D. Williams contract in exchange for reuniting Courtney with Adelman. The Clippers' 2015 1st will probably be low 20's.

    I think every team in essence wins with that trade scenario. Rox get closer to a championship team. Wolves get something in return for Love and actually might end up better off long-term. Celtics get a starting center in exchange essentially a low 1st round pick.

    My question is what type of long-term impact would this have on Rox salary-cap wise? Would it be more feasible to pursue a player like KLove in free agency (2015) or try to grab him during the upcoming season in a move like this?
     
  9. hizzobbes

    hizzobbes Member

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    I don't think we really want to travel down the "proposed trade" path in this thread.

    All the scenarios to get Love (or a third star in general) are possible but none of them are exactly feasible in the strictest definition of the word.

    You're counting on teams doing so bad that their star forces a trade a year and a half before his contract is up... That would be far more likely next summer or the following trade deadline but still something you can't count on. Then even if he forces a trade, Minny doesn't have to trade him to Houston...

    The free agency route has been discussed a lot already. Basically you let Lin/Asik walk, decline the options for TJones/DMo, trade away future 1st round pics, waive all none guaranteed money except Canaan, and don't sign anyone in 2014 that takes up 2015 cap... Lastly you hope that the cap goes as high as it's predicted and then you MIGHT come close to enough room to scoop him up.

    It's cool we even come close and that shows a lot of flexibility but I wouldn't count on it happening. We're in a very good position to take advantage of opportunities should they happen with our potential cap room and trade assets.

    I mean, lets say that TJones/DMo and a first round pick in 2014 do well and we want to keep them... we could still have 8 to 10 mil in cap space in 2015 to sign a high quality player! That's pretty amazing.
     
  10. basketballholic

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    Don't know what boondocks is besides using the term as a derogatory term for the country.

    Interesting question about the T-Wolves starting out 19-33. I can't see that happening frankly, unless they are repeating last season with Love and/or Rubio going down with significant injuries again for a long period of time. But I suppose anything is possible.

    Secondly, if the T-Wolves indeed were way off the playoff pace I still can't see Love asking to be moved because this is Flips first season. Love, contrary to what many fans believe, is a winner who is actually considerate of the overall circumstances. Now, if Kahn were still running the show, I would bet that Love would throw a fit and try to get out. But I don't see that happening so soon into Flip's tenure. Love likes Flip. It's a matter of giving Flip some time to make it work there. However, if the T-Wolves miss the playoffs and they are staring at possibly only one more season of Kevin Love before he opts out and flies away the following summer (2015), then I can see Flip trading Love just to get maximum value for him if he can see Love is unhappy and he believes that Love is going to jump ship on him. But, back to your question, I can not envision any circumstance that would cause Love to want out as soon as this season UNLESS something goes terribly sour between him and Flip.

    Thirdly, your trade...Minnesota gets the shaft on that deal. They come out worse than either HOU or BOS. You're talking Kevin Love for Courtney Lee (bad contract), TJones and 3 bottom of the first round picks...along with $12 million of dead salary in Humphries. That's simply not enough value for Love. Minnesota could easily find a team to give them more.....including the Rockets themselves. Asik+TJones+3 future picks is better than the trade pieces you are sending back to them. They can then possibly move Pek to Portland along with Jones and those picks for Aldridge. Not to mention...if Love goes on the trade market....I fully expect the Clippers to come calling offering up Blake for Love straight up. Chris Paul will most likely go to the front office and tell them to do it.

    So, I'd say that the trade bidding on Love starts at Blake and winds up somewhere above Blake.
     
  11. jch1911

    jch1911 Member

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    Thanks for your reply / perspective!

    Oh yeah... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballin'_(The_Boondocks)
     
  12. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    So what is their max?
     
  13. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    Barring an unanticipated drop in the salay cap:

    The max salary for Kevin Love in 2015 will be no less than $16,441,500.

    The max salary for LaMarcus Aldridge in 2015 will be no less than $16,806,300.

    To play on a legit contender, those guys might be willing to take a small pay cut. It wouldn't be much different than the level of pay cut that Lebron, Bosh and Wade took in 2010.
     
  14. Pass 1st shoot 2nd

    Pass 1st shoot 2nd Contributing Member

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    I'm too lazy to read through 3 pages of comments to see if somebody else had said this, but unless I am missing something, this article is waaay off base.

    We traded Budinger instead of picking up his option because (1) he would have gotten more on the RFA market than he was worth or we wanted to pay, and (2) we were keen on this year's free agent market and needed the cap space. Basically, we traded what, 885k of expiring salary for a pick in the draft. Budinger then got a three year, 16 million deal this offseason that will pay him more in 2013-2014 (year one of his new deal) than Parsons will make over the course of his three year contract (excluding the 4th year team option). Parsons is Budinger to the second or third power, and will command something in the range of a 4-5 year, 36-45 million dollar deal with years 4 or 5 being a player option. Why wouldn't Morey pick up the 4th year option, and pay Parsons another 900k and change instead of letting him become a free-agent and have to pay him something in the range of 9-10 million in year one of a free agent contract? If Morey extends Parsons' contract or resigns Parsons to a new contract instead of picking up the option, it will be a (1) wink-wink-nudge-nudge Joe Smith/Kevin McHale/Timberwolves a/k/a Andrei Kirilenko/Prokolov/Nets kind of arrangement, (2) a sign and trade that allows us to resign and retain Parsons while dumping salary, or (3) signing him outright to a new contract with a back-loaded pay day that allows us to minimize the effect of the salary cap hit (capologists, please cast stones if they will knock sense into me). But the safe assumption to make is that Morey will pick up the cheap option. Morey does shop at K-Mart, you know...I mean, he doesn't get boners over a fluke triple-double in a pre-season came and sign a scrub center to a one gagilliondy dollar deal like the one Rudy T and Dawson gave Kelvin Cato.
     
  15. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    I'm sorry you had to take the time to respond to that. I meant it sarcastically, because he obviously has no idea what the max is by making that statement.
     
  16. hizzobbes

    hizzobbes Member

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    It may be that I'm tired but I'm not 100% sure what I just read... Here's some things I picked out though...

    The reason to make Parsons a RFA next offseason is basically just a way to give us an extra chance of retaining him. There can be no back loaded contracts since he will have been in the league 3 years by that time. This was discussed in the posts you said you were too lazy to read.

    I don't think the article is saying what we should do but stating the flexibility of the situation... A lot depends on how this next year goes so everything right now is just speculation and discussing possibilities.

    I personally like the idea of picking up his 4th year option and seeing how things go in 2015 FA but if we're really worried about losing him or think we can get him cheaper (in the long run) by making him a RFA a year early then that's a good option to have.
     
  17. Pass 1st shoot 2nd

    Pass 1st shoot 2nd Contributing Member

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    Gotcha on that, but we don't have the dough to begin paying him fat cash beginning in 2014-2015, so what kind of ladder can Morey use to progressively increase Parsons' salary from year to year without it being a "back loaded" contract, per the terms of the new CBA?

    I don't think that we have any choice but to pick up Parsons' fourth-year option because I can conceive of no way for us to re-sign Parsons to a new contract beginning in 2014-2015; that is, unless Les Alexander gets into the luxury tax realm and/or trades away a Jeremy Lin or Omer Asik caliber player and takes back cheaper and lesser talent in order to give Parsons his just deserts. Les says that he is willing to pay the luxury tax in the right situation, but I'll believe it when I see it.

    I am with you here. But to my knowledge the new CBA does not prevent teams from using multiple team trades to re-sign their own players. I think that is our only other viable option after this season apart from picking up the 4th year team option, and, in so doing, risking that Parsons will bleeping hate us and seek bigger bucks in free agency to compensate for getting minimum wage (relatively speaking) for another season.

    Thanks for discussing this with me.
     
  18. LandryFields

    LandryFields Member

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    I exaggerated to make a point. But when you consider that in order for the Rockets to have that 15.8 million in cap space, these things would have to happen:
    -Rockets retain and acquire no other player salaries beyond 2015 than those BimaThug listed
    -The salary cap actually increases to 62 million

    Now, considering that the Rockets are now officially in the mix for title contention, that Dwight Howard is 27 and is not getting any younger(and especially notable to Rockets fans who should know about the importance of capitalizing on a superstar big man's prime), and that the salary cap has hovered at 58 million since 2010, I would say those two required circumstances are quite unlikely. Which means that the Rockets actual cap space come 2015 will be much less than that 15.8 million amount, and THAT will be much less than the maximum salary amount of Love and Aldridge.
     
  19. rogower

    rogower Member

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    Question: is there anything tricky about trading the Lin and Asik contracts?

    My view is that Daryl Morey has his two superstars and that everything else on the roster will contine to be evaluated from a value/cap flexibility standpoint. Thus, since Asik and Lin both clearly have more trade value now vs next summer, when each player is a) far more expensive and b) will only be under contract through the end of the 2014-15 season, Morey is surely looking at trade possibilities involving each player as we speak.

    If Morey could get back either a first round pick or John Henson from Milwaukee for Lin, in other words, I say he does it, as either of those two assets will be far more valuable, as assets, than Lin. Particulary since there likely is not a big dropoff in production from the PG position if Lin is traded. The beauty of this approach is that if, for instance, Steve Nash is healthy and available this February, the cap-clearing Lakers would be far more interested in either Henson or a draft pick than Lin.

    But I'm worried that my analysis is off because there is something that I don't know about theses two oddball contracts. Is there?
     
  20. hizzobbes

    hizzobbes Member

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    A 4.5% annual raise is all we, or anyone else, can give him. I think we do have the cash though... If the salary cap goes as high as expected, 62mil, we could still sign him to reasonable contract and be under the tax line. I guess a lot depends on what he does this year and what his value turns out to be... I'm hoping no higher than 8 mil per year but some would argue 10 or more. We definitely don't have to go this route, but it is an option depending on what happens this season.



    If we're winning then I don't see Parsons being upset... He signed a four year contract, so it is what it is. His contract, at the time, was a pretty good deal for a second round pick from his point of view. He knows he's going to get paid when he does hit FA and I don't really think he was banking on us to make him a RFA in 2014... I didn't even think of that as a possibility until I read the Zach Lowe article lol.

    I'm always down for a good discussion.
     

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