[Grantland] Zach Lowe and the Parsons Plan

Obviously Harden and Howard stay, Parsons and Beverly's cap hold and QO are so small they can be held onto, throw in the "new FA" and Garcia, Canaan as well if he works and you have 7 people, including the 5 starters, that's almost all the minutes of a playoff rotation.

Obviously a lot will be determined this year, if he feels that some 3m mid level player can make the difference between ring and no ring, that route is fine, but if it's not, what's the point of adding or holding onto these players?

As for holding onto the rights of Asik and Lin, if they go all the way to 2015, what for? they're both UFA, Lin may re-sign, Asik will absolutely not re-sign.

 

Yep, and it's not like the Rockets have to renounce their own guys on June 30 or anything. They can keep Lin's, Asik's or anyone else's cap holds on the books until they get an actual COMMITMENT from a max (or near-max) free agent or trade target. Only then would they need to renounce anyone's rights.


That said, FWIW, I'm slowly coming around to the notion that the Rockets may not be counting on a 2015 cap room approach but rather may build up a championship roster as follows:

--Use their salary cap exceptions next summer--Non-Taxpayer MLE and maybe even the Bi-Annual Exception--to add quality veterans (kind of like how Miami added Shane Battier and then Ray Allen, but Houston could offer even more money to free agents as a team well below the tax threshold) or possibly even use the MLE to finally bring over Sergio Llull and/or Kostas Papanikolaou.

--Decline their option on Parsons, eat the $624,771 in guaranteed money under his current deal, make him a RFA and work out a deal paying him less annually than he'd make as a UFA in 2015. While I think keeping him locked up until 2015 likely makes the most sense financially, I can see the merit in lowering Parsons's long-term annual salary in order to mitigate luxury tax payments in outer years (like 2016 and 2017).

--Feel free to be more aggressive with the NBA Draft, as the Rockets hold both of their own first round picks and up to five second rounders over the next two drafts. Not worrying about 2015 cap room allows the team to look to move UP rather than OUT of the first round in 2014 and 2015.

--Look to upgrade via TRADE (using Asik, some combination of young PFs and possibly Lin) rather than free agency. For those saying that the Arenas Rule contracts of Lin and Asik will become difficult to trade if not dealt soon, remember that a February 2015 trade deadline deal would only require another team to pay a prorated portion of that third year balloon payment, most or all of which could be offset by including some cash in the deal.

The beauty in all of this is that EITHER OPTION is palatable. With two star players already in place, the Rockets have so many options. Most teams are left with little to no flexibility after acquiring two stars they didn't draft themselves. The Rockets are in a unique and enviable position.

I'm just glad all of the front office's diligent planning has finally paid off.

 

If those 6 guys are kept you don't have nearly enough room for the max. And that's my whole point. Signing another max FA like Love/Aldridge is pretty much out of the question for the Rox.

 

Not necessarily. Let's take a look at the numbers:

Dwight Howard - $22,359,364
James Harden - $15,756,438
Chandler Parsons (cap hold) - $1,833,025
Patrick Beverley (qualifying offer) - $1,181,348
Francisco Garcia (cap hold) - $947,276 (assuming Garcia exercises his player option in 2014)
Isaiah Canaan - $947,276
Incomplete Roster Charges ($525,093 x 6)

Total: $46,175,285

The salary cap for the 2014-15 season is already estimated to grow to approximately $62 million. Assuming that the cap comes in right at the estimates and doesn't grow any further, that would give the Rockets $15,824,715 in cap room under this scenario. That number increases with any further increase in the 2015-16 salary cap.

Again, I'm not saying that adding a max free agent in 2015 is likely or even that it would be the best course of action for the Rockets. I'm just showing you how it might be POSSIBLE or at least APPROACHABLE.

 

It's this threat of being able to create free agent max dollars which makes a lot of trade deals possible. Just the fact that teams could lose their free agent for nothing....now that we really do have a "super team" even though it's built around 2 superstars instead of 3. Our team is now in the position to literally tear away a free agent from another team that wants to be the third wheel in the machine...since it's possible.

Because of this possibility......I really think that we are holding Asik and Lin until a much bigger fish comes biting. That could happen as early as the trade deadline this year. We have enough assets as you mentioned above including the draft picks to go along with very, very good players in Asik and Lin plus guys on rookie deals (DMo/TJones) that another superstar player could very well see the possibility of coming to Houston and he could decide to force his way off his current team to get here.

There are 5 players that I am watching closely....Lebron, KLove, Melo, Bosh, LaMarcus. Those guys would all fit here as the third piece (In Lebron's case the first piece) and they could all use a lot of leverage to make it happen through trade.

Now, I do not foresee Lebron forcing his way out during next season. But......I could see Melo definitely forcing his way out. There is no doubt in my mind that Melo will leave the Knicks after this season to sign with the Lakers, take his wife to Hollywood and reset his championship window with the Lakers cap situation. Melo could decide to use his leverage to force his way out of New York early.....to Houston. If he makes it clear to Dolan that he is opting out and leaving or Dolan can trade him here....there's one possibility. Don't know if Melo would even be interested in coming here but he is interested in winning championships. He knows it isn't happening in NY and he's looking for his next opportunity. He's going to leave NY. For the Knicks, if Melo does this...they don't have a lot of leverage. Asik/Lin/DMo should get the job done. Lin back to NY...would fit nicely.

Here's the thing...if Lebron wants to walk to Houston after next season....if the Melo scenario starts to play out....Lebron will send signals through back channels that he wants to walk to Houston if they will create the cap space for him after the 13/14 season. So...then we can have our cake and eat it too. In theory...we could carve out over $19 million of cap space next summer if the cap raises to $62.5 million..not quite enough to give James his full max value...but almost. This would be moving everyone out except Howard, Harden, Parsons, Beverley, and Canaan. So...the bottom line in all this is...if Lebron wants to come to Houston...he can if he lets it be known. Once the trade talks heat up at the trade deadline this year and he sees that we're fixing to deal for Melo or perhaps some other superstar..then he'll have to let Morey know through the back channels. And I'm not even for sure that it would even stop Morey from trading for Melo. Kinda nice position to be in actually. Trade for Melo and then if Lebron wants to come here..trade Melo into Lakers cap space and sign Lebron.

Now that's the best case scenario.....Lebron alongside our other guys. But I don't think it happens. I think our chances of getting Lebron are virtually nil. Reason being that Lebron wants to win by beating the best guys. He put together his super team. But the next best player realistically in the league...is either Durant or CP3 or Dwight or Harden or Westbrook or .... Rose or Melo. Teaming up with Dwight and Harden here in Houston after winning multiple rings in Miami would mark Lebron as a basketball mercenary simply playing the whole league to get on the best teams. It's the same disposition that PJax has to deal with in regards to only coaching championship level players. I think it would tarnish Lebron somewhat and he doesn't want that. I think he either plays out his career in Miami or jumps back to Cleveland.

So, that brings us to the other guys...Bosh, Love, LaMarcus, and possibly Melo if Melo forces his way out of NY at the trade deadline. Really the best possible fit to add to this team would be Bosh...if all you are considering is the present state. But that's not all you have to consider here. First of all...to trade for Bosh would mean Miami is going all in on keeping Lebron in Miami. And if you give up Asik/Lin/DMo for Bosh....you're creating an even bigger juggernaut in Miami that you have to beat to get a ring. Wade, Lebron, Dmo, Asik, and another shooter??? With Asik doing all the nasty work inside??? Don't know if I want to trade for Bosh after all. Not to mention Bosh is 30. I think I'd rather ....WAIT....and see what else pops up. If Miami makes noise about trading Bosh, well, you know Riley has decided they're not good enough to keep it going. So...why help them impove??

Here's the other thing about Melo going to the Lakers....that effectively ends the chances of Love going there in free agency. Clips are capped out. Lakers will be capped out after re-signing Kobe and Pau. Only way Love can get to LA is through trade. He may be able to force his way to the Clippers for Blake straight up. But that's most likely a year and a half away from happening. For us to be involved there...we'd have to have our cap in such a place that we could sign Love outright if he opted out and we could trade for him as well if he made rumbles and wanted out of Minnesota after next season. That would mean most likely retaining Asik and Lin or at the very least trading both guys for other players with only 1 year left on their deals as well.

Which brings me to LaMarcus. We know the possibilities there. In my opinion, LaMarcus is the least attractive option of the guys I mentioned..save for possibly Melo. However..he may be the easiest acquirable. And his contract does expire after 14/15. So his contract would fit. So, if it becomes obvious that Portland isn't a playoff contender (which I don't think they are), then they may decide to trade LaMarcus to get younger. They won't find a better deal for him than what we can give them.

So...I think a deal for LaMarcus could materialize. And while he's not the optimum fit for us (in my opinion)...his contract is short enough that we could be players in 2015 free agency if we kept Parsons on his extended contract ... OR ... we could sign LaMarcus to a healthy extension after we trade for him...then let Parsons go through restricted free agency...then work the trade market for Love possibly in 2015 using LaMarcus as trade bait if Love decides to force himself out of Minnesota. LaMarcus could become our key to acquiring Love if Love becomes available.

All this is possible due to Morey not having bad contracts on the shelf to deal with. He keeps the cupboard stocked with good value contracts that can be traded if necessary...including Lin and Asik. (Yes, Lin's contract is decent enough value that it can be traded.)

 

No, it's 62m next year, btw that raise to 58.7m included changing from 57% to 50% of bri, the cap would have been almost 67m this year had it been the old bri calculation.

 

Looking at Bima&basketballholic 's posts, it's really scary (and impressive) how well are FO planned. We're probably one of the most flexible teams in the league, if not the most flexible, thanks to Morey. But what's even more incredible, is that we're a contender AND we're flexible- most flexible teams are mediocre. And not only that, we haven't had a sub .500 season since 2006! If this doesn't warrant a 30 for 30 special, I don't know what does.

bballholic, I agree with you on Bosh. As much as I think he'd be a good fit, we shouldn't help Miami. If he gets traded here, it's either because the Heat have crapped out and are trading everyone (in which case, we probably wouldn't get him) or he gets traded to a ~7th seed team in the offseason, then the team blows it up at the deadline and trades him here (likely attaching a bloated contract for Asik and Lin's expiring contract). The Bosh-Asik trade is too perfect, because it makes two opposing teams better.

I don't think LMA comes here, I think Portland wants too much, and I think some mid-level playoff team will overpay for him (Bulls, Cavs).

Melo probably stays in NY, if he leaves he won't come here (or he'll just b**** and throw up shots). I don't think he cares about winning, I think he just wants the big lights. And given how Melo plays now (while contented), I'm scared to see how he'd play if he was irascible.

If the Lakers experiment wasn't so damning, I'd suggest Gasol- he's definitely attainable, but him and dwight don't seem to play well with each other, or even get along. So, he's out, but I wouldn't be surprised if we got someone like him (a declining 2nd banana on a big but short contract).

Will be interesting to follow Love, I don't want the FO to surround Harden and Howard with crap, and then not get him.

I like the one option Bima bought up, of signing Chandler as an RFA, and then being a "richer Heat". We'd be able to get a lot of ring chasers for cheap AND still be able to bring in a solid 6th or 7th man. Plus (going back to bballholics point) the more veteran role players we bring here, the less the Heat can sign.

Certainly, a good time to be a Rockets fan.

 

well morey swallowed that pill and got Lin back why not the leagues most overrated team?

 

The problem with Portland trading LMA is at the trade deadline he will have exactly 1 1/2 seasons left before he can walk from a team as a free agent. No mid-level team is going to trade for him without getting him to extend. So...he has some amount of leverage on where he is ultimately traded to.

 

The Bulls aren't really a mid level team, but their first priority seems to have always been Love, same age as Rose.

 

Lol

Wow. So from this we have almost enough to offer a max. Now we have to sign Parsons and that will for sure take us into luxury tax. Now we have to sign a bunch of vet and/or rookie minimums to go deep into luxury.

Les said he was willing to go some into tax for a championship caliber team. LOL.

 

Honestly, LMA is going to be on the wrong side of 30 when he's available, and he's going to want a long-term contract that will surely overpay him on the tail end. Then the Rockets will be stuck for 2-3 years with an overpaid player that they can't easily trade who is taking up tons of cap space.

That's exactly the kind of inflexibility that Morey has openly tried to avoid - the only guys you want to take that level of commitment and risk from are the true superstars.

 

I somewhat don't agree with the wrong statement of the wrong side of 30 since ATM Aldridge is 28

ill give you the example of David west who at 32 received a 3 year 36 mill dollar deal and still balling at a borderline allstar level

 

A lot of us feel that Chandler is untouchable at $800K. At $8M, not so much.