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[Grantland] The Kobe Assist

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by HMMMHMM, Dec 6, 2012.

  1. HMMMHMM

    HMMMHMM Contributing Member

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    [rquoter]I define the Kobe Pass as the missed shot that begets an offensive rebound and thus extends an offensive possession. Of course, offensive rebounds are an important statistic on their own, but sole credit for an offensive rebound is traditionally awarded to the player who acquires the rebound. Little else is considered. We conceptualize them as destinations but ignore their origins. Where do offensive rebounds come from?

    [...]

    Kobe Bryant is the king of the Kobe Assist and hence its namesake. Over the last two seasons, Kobe had more than 200 Kobe Assists, which is by far the most in the league and also precedes the arrival of Dwight Howard, the most dominant interior presence in the NBA. The combination of one of the league's most voluminous and creative jump shooters with the league's most dominant interior force will only proliferate the Kobe Assist phenomenon in L.A.

    While Kobe haters may delight in the idea that many of Kobe's best passes are actually his missed shots, I would suggest that these folks temper their delight because, like it or not, these passes are effective. I would also argue that many times Kobe Assists are not as accidental as they may seem; in fact, the belief that these outcomes are "lucky" or these bounces are "fortuitous" diminishes the considerable skills required for an offensive team to extend a possession or score those critical "second chance" points. A 16-foot jumper during a fast break is a horrible shot in part because there is little chance a teammate is present in case you miss; that same jumper in a half-court set when Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol are on your team and near the basket is nowhere near as foolish. The latter is the actual shooting environment in Los Angeles; this is the ecosystem where Kobe Bryant lives.

    As a general rule, NBA offenses rebound 32 percent of their misses. But this number is not homogeneous league-wide; it depends on the team, the shooter, and many other variables — especially team priorities. The Celtics, who famously prioritize transition defense over offensive rebounding, only rebound 23 percent of their misses, while the high-flying and physical Denver Nuggets capture 42 percent of their missed shots. The Lakers prioritize offensive rebounds, and given their personnel that makes a lot of sense for them.

    [...]

    As of November 30, Kobe has attempted 289 shots. He has missed 146 of them, but the Lakers have retained possession on 50 of those misses. Furthermore, the Lakers have immediately converted 22 of those 50 offensive rebounds into points. So far this year, Kobe has 22 Kobe Assists, which trails only Dion Waiters and Carmelo Anthony. You might be saying, "Well, since Kobe shoots so much, this isn't that special." Not so fast — 15 percent of Kobe's misses immediately lead to Lakers put-backs, which is much higher than the league average. In comparison, Dallas's Vince Carter has missed over 100 shots and only has three Kobe Assists all year. The Lakers have a smarter, more responsive jump-shooting environment than almost any other team in the NBA.

    But some of Kobe's misses are even more "effective" than others. So far this season, Kobe has taken 107 close-range shots (within 7.5 feet). He's made 59 percent of them, which is very good, but what is scary is that of his 44 misses in this zone, the Lakers have rebounded 52 percent of them, and immediately put back 32 percent of them. Breaking it down this way raises provocative questions about how we evaluate shooting in the NBA. Out of 100 close-range Kobe shots, 59 go in and 41 miss. Of those 41 misses, the Lakers grab 21 of them; the defense grabs only 20 of them. This means 80 percent of Kobe's close-range shots either result in immediate points or a "fresh 24." Furthermore, out of those 44 misses, 14 will become "put-backs" — so, out of 100 close-range Kobe shots, 59 immediately find the net and 14 more find the net within seconds of being rebounded by a Laker; 73 percent of Kobe's close-range shot attempts become points for the Lakers within five seconds.

    Around the league this season, there are other examples of effective misses. Cavs rookie Dion Waiters provides a fascinating case. He's making 36 percent of his 3s so far this season, which is average, but incredibly the Cavs have rebounded 35 of his 54 misses (65 percent) from beyond the arc. Elsewhere, the Knicks put back close-range misses by Carmelo 35 percent of the time. Of course, these high numbers have a lot to do with Anderson Varejao and Tyson Chandler, who are both dominant rebounders, but it's not that simple. The presence of a dominant rebounder does not ensure Kobe Assists. The Rockets have only put back 8 percent of James Harden's 147 missed shots this season despite the presence of Omer Asik, the league's third leading rebounder.

    [...][/rquoter]

    Full article: http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id...shots-translate-new-nba-statistic-kobe-assist

    Oh, and obligatory
    [​IMG]
     
  2. supdudes

    supdudes Member

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  3. BigBenito

    BigBenito Member

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    I am shocked that a player who has consistently had one of the most dominant front courts year in and year out can have his shots rebounded by his teammates.
     
  4. HMMMHMM

    HMMMHMM Contributing Member

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    U just mad the Rockets slept on this and traded for super inefficient Kobe-assister James Hardin!

    Seriously, this is a good piece. The author makes good points why basketball analysis remains too narrow, why there may be more value to the "hero chuckers" like Kobe or Melo who take a lot of inefficient midrange jumpers than some might think and why generally there's more value to your guards shooting mid-range jumpers than there is to your bigs shooting mid-range jumpers & 3's, even if they aren't shooting it as well.
     
  5. BigBenito

    BigBenito Member

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    I'll read it, but nothing you just said is exactly new. But, I guess kudos for him for putting numbers to it. (I am not anti-stat, this just seems like one that has too many different types of fruit, considering different personnel and coaching philosophies.) .

    And why is it so hard for people on this board to spell Harden's name correctly?
     
  6. DonatasFanboy

    DonatasFanboy Member

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    Interesting article, good points.
     
  7. da_juice

    da_juice Member

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    I think it's a joke, playing on how everybody butchers Motiejunas.
     
  8. BigBenito

    BigBenito Member

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    OK, I read it. Came away with: I am shocked that a player who has consistently had one of the most dominant front courts year in and year out can have his shots rebounded by his teammates.
     
  9. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    I think Rafer Alston was the best Kobe Passer in his days. JVG told him to keep shooting those low percentage teardrops because it would draw the defenders and when it didn't go in, there would be put backs.

    If they counted Kobe Assists, Rafer would have been in the Hall of Fame.
     
  10. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Contributing Member

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    So instead of just passing to his dominant big men for easy baskets, he shot up bad shots so they could get the rebound?

    Got it.
     
  11. Patience

    Patience Contributing Member

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    That explains why Rafer was worse at layups than three pointers, I guess. He was just passing the ball!
     
  12. BraveFox

    BraveFox Member

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