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[Grantland]The Harden Dilemma

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by da_juice, Oct 12, 2012.

  1. da_juice

    da_juice Member

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    Good article by Bill Simmons about OKC, free agency, and the games the owners play.


    http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8486795/the-harden-dilemma
     
  2. BigBenito

    BigBenito Member

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    A rare, good article from Simmons. (Grantland really hamstrung his writing.)

    In before 'omg boston references.'

    I expect them to play it out, and b) OKC to just match any offer Harden receives.
     
  3. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member

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    Danger will robinson.

    Do not sign him to a max deal.

    oh and come on - I know you love the celtics but:

    LMFAO, "by any calculation" - and by "any" I mean that of the tiny minority of Celtics fans who believe the load of bollocks that Simmons goes on to spout about Sam Jones being more talented than anybody on the celtics but wanting to be a role player who delivered in the clutch based entirely on anectdotal evidence from Bill Russell.

    Big ****ing deal, basically you're saying he coudl have been great had he actually applied himself. He didn't, he posted relatively unimpressive numbers that, espeically if you pace/era adjust them, make him a borderline allstar rather than anything remotely close to an alltime great - more of a Robert Horry type than anything else.

    "By any calculation, Sam Jones was super great he just didn't feel like showing it except at certain times!" is oxymoronic on its face and wrong, because by the calculations that we actually have, he wasn't remotely close to the echelon that Simmons puts him in
     
    #3 SamFisher, Oct 12, 2012
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2012
  4. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    I seem them matching, but it probably knocks Ibaka loose.
     
  5. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    If their owner won't go into luxury tax, then they HAVE to trade either Harden or Ibaka. They aren't the Lakers or the Spurs. There's absolutely no need to hamstrung their future for a championship run today. They have a long window anyway and should make personnel decisions as such.
     
  6. BigBenito

    BigBenito Member

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    Ibaka? Do you mean Perkins? I assume they would much rather have Ibaka at ~12 than Perkinsa at ~8 million. Especially since they just extended Ibaka.
     
  7. jopatmc

    jopatmc Contributing Member

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    OKC is going to discover that Westbrook is the guy they should move to maximize that team during Durant's career. They should re-sign Harden and trade Westbrook for a king's ransom.
     
  8. BigBenito

    BigBenito Member

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    jopatmc, westbrook worked on his lowpost this offseason. you should love him now!




    And, if okc refuses to pay the luxury tax... I refuse to follow the team. You don't throw away the chance of winning championships and its long term ramifications for short term earnings.
     
  9. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    Well, I'm pretty sure they can't keep both, plus the big 3 at max. Ibaka might be the better investment, but the $4m difference in salary balloons into a big number with the luxury tax. And, it's a long contract, with Perkins ending sooner which gives some flexibility. Finally, Ibaka is a better trade chip. You can probably flip either one for an expiring and a high draft pick (so you can exploit some cheap talented labor for another 4 years), but Ibaka would give you a higher pick. So, if they can take the financial punishment, maybe they stick with Ibaka and dump Perkins; but I think it's reasonable to think they might trade Ibaka instead to get a better prospect and more financial relief.
     
  10. jopatmc

    jopatmc Contributing Member

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    Good stuf BigBen. Did he work on his noggin?
     
  11. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    Assuming they re-sign Harden, Perkins is a goner next summer unless he plays out of his mind next year. Trading Ibaka after he signed for cheap would be very dumb.
     
  12. dkamberi25

    dkamberi25 Member

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    This is the correct move for the Thuinder to make. As much as Durant says that he and Westbrook mesh, the truth is they don't. Westbrook wants to score and command the ball as much as Durant. While his talent warrents that kind of game, playing next to Durant who is a better scorer then Westbrook means it should not happen. I don't think Westbrook can take a secondary role to Durant like Wade did last season for LeBron.

    Harden on then other hand, is a perfect complement for Durant. He can score but dosen't need to command the ball like Westbrook. He also provides great perimeter defense which would allow Durant to guard the oppositions 2nd best wing player.

    The perfect situation for Oklahoma would have been to move Westbrook for Rondo back when Rondo was on the market. Rondo is the perfect player to play alongside Durant and Harden. As good as each of these guys have been so far in OKC, they could be better with a true PG setting them up.
     
  13. DonatasFanboy

    DonatasFanboy Member

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    they don't. they just have to amnesty Perkins and stay cheap with the bench the way they have been.
     
  14. BigBenito

    BigBenito Member

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    (Not everthing below is really in response to your post, but just me thinking 'outloud' on the signing.)

    I agree they probably don't want to keep both if the three get maxed.

    Yeah, it could be Ibaka getting the boot, but the skillset, youth, and health is worth the extra 3.5 million - yes, he is a better trade target - because he is the better player.

    If I were to get rid of a player for picks/value, it wouldn't be the most painful thing, especially if Durant could start playing the 4 additional minutes.

    Unfortunately, I believe the goal moving forward was to have Ibaka move to the 5 and Durant to the 4, making the team taller/faster than anyone else... but, Dwight to LA caused the brakes to be tapped on those moves. (Random Tangent: 100 Million for LA this year, in two years, who knows what that team will even look like.)

    But, the three maxes are different levels, which helps ease the $ burden.

    Free agent max < WB's max < Durant's max.
    (not including this year and I used Eric Gordon's recent FA max for Harden - which I assume will jump slightly.)
    Big 3 + Ibaka
    $18,773,176 - $19,997,513 - $21,221,850 - 0
    $14,693,906 - $15,719,062 - $16,744,218 - $17,769,374
    $13,668,750 ~ $14,283,844 ~ $14,898,938 ~ $15,514,031
    $12,250,000 - $12,250,000 - $12,250,000 - $12,250,000

    The four combined, it goes 59, 62, 65 and then Durant is an unrestricted free agent. At its highest is when Perkins is already off the books... which would lend some weight to trading Ibaka instead, but!
    They won't hit luxury tax this year either path.
    And if the luxury tax does go up, getting rid of Perkins could keep them out of luxury tax next year, or very close to it - keeping the luxury hit low (1.5x).

    Then, the following years, yeah, they are paying luxury tax...

    But, the #1 reason to keep Ibaka over Perkins next year is that 0 in 2016-2017. UFA-KD. followed by UFA, UFA, UFA. Keep the best players now, so that when the UFA's start hitting, there is a shot of keeping something! (And keeping Perkins now, will not help that 'something' later.)


    To me, this signing is a no-brainer. At worst they have to trade/amnesty Perkins. Or even possibly just trade Harden in a few years. (If he is matched - I do not think they will trade him in the future if they extend him before the 31st.)

    The painful part will be when the young-ins star becoming UFAs and start dreaming of LA/NY.

    P.S. If Hawyard gets his rookie contract extended, I... will lose my ******* mind.

    Probably not, but maybe something coach k tried to teach will stick... it didn't seem to after Worlds. But, the headless horseman was a monster, and so is WB.
     
  15. da_juice

    da_juice Member

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    Anyone else find it funny that the luxury tax (which is designed to reduce the advantage big markets have over small ones) could break up the best small market team while having little effect on the big market ones (Lakers)?
     
  16. DonatasFanboy

    DonatasFanboy Member

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    the way they've structured his contract (one fixed number, all years), he makes much more sense for a team worried about their long term salary situation.
    The only question is, can they squeeze their 'big 4' and role players under luxury tax by amnestying Perkins? And they can.

    Having players on evenly distributed contracts = win because the tax line will start going up at some point. And they also have Collison on front-loaded contract. And several guys who will expire / have team options.

    They just need to amnesty Perkins, and then they are free to give Harden his max. They are so insanely flexible...

    The only reason we are still talking about it is because Presti sees no reason to hurry up. Signing Harden right now for the max would make no sense, because it would mean a summer exit for Perkins which might upset chemistry.
    So he'll just let them play, pay Harden in the summer, amnesty Perk and live happily ever after.
    And who knows, by playing it slow, he might even be able to trade Perkins and save cash instead of amnestying him. Or even get Harden to sign for a little cheaper.

    It's ridiculous how much is being made of the Harden thing when everything they did over the last few years contracts-wise has pointed towards them keeping both Harden and Ibaka.
     
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  17. da_juice

    da_juice Member

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    Not too mention- Harden may like OKC and may be willing to forgo a bit more money to keep the core together. I wouldn't be surprised if Perkins is dealt at the deadline for a center on an expiring or very small contract with some OKC draft picks to sweeten the pot.

    Perkins and a first rounder for Dalembart might be a good deal. Dalembart's contract will expire and he'd probably resign for the vet min. Aldrich and Collison could log minutes at the C to make up for Perkins.
     
  18. peleincubus

    peleincubus Member

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    how much worse could dallembert or aldrich be then perkins was last year in the playoffs. he was awful.
     
  19. DonatasFanboy

    DonatasFanboy Member

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    Perk will be useful defending low post centers like Howard or Al Jefferson, but they overpaid him for his youth.
    He shouldn't be playing consistent minutes in most matchups.

    Now that they need the money, the smarter thing would be to find a veteran specialist who will do the exact same thing.
    For instance, the Celtics signed Jason Collins for the minimum this summer. He's older, so you are taking a risk of decline, but would you rather pay Perkins 9 mil or Collins the minimum? Collins is very similar vs. dominant bigs defensively, probably even worse offensively, but you aren't taking either of them for offense, so...
     
  20. DonatasFanboy

    DonatasFanboy Member

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    also, off topic, but while i love coach Brooks, they should give a call to Phil Jackson, because that team has the perfect personnel for the triangle, Perkins aside.
     

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