http://grantland.com/features/nfl-stats-predicting-success/ I have lots of hope. I think Texans season last year is underrated in terms of how successfully they tanked.
I don't think this is a surprise in any way. There were so many bounces that over the 2 previous seasons were going the Texans way, you had to figure they'd go the other way at some point...maybe not so much that it led to 14 straight losses but certainly enough to create the snowball that it became.
Once Schaub was pulled and the team actually started trying again after the 2 mid-season blowouts (STL, SF), they had a 7 game stretch of losing by a TD or less and had opportunities to win many of those games. Probably should have been a 5-7 win team, but I'm glad it wasn't because Kubiak may still be here in that case.
I would say the article simply reinforce how much luck there is in football due to its short schedule. Random luck can easily mean the difference between a crappy 7-9 season or a 10-6 solid playoff team. That said, last year I think some of Texans "unluckiness" came from the team just having no confidence in their QB play. Unfortunately, that's likely to continue into next year unless Fitzpatrick turns into last year's Josh McCown.
I've been saying it all along. Texans quit on Schaub/Kubiak AND were also unlucky during the year. They threw an undrafted QB into the fire with no running game and a weak offensive line and still managed to be close in many games. Texans are going to surprise many people this year with how good they are.
I think the Texans were part unlucky and part quitters last season. The luck part should change. Hopefully firing Kubiak will help the quitting portion. Schaub went from being about the 10th best QB to horrible. He was not good enough last season to use "mediocre" to describe him. Schaub's crappy play last season should show how important the QB position is and how valuable Schaub was in previous years. Fitz is not as good as pre-2013 Schaub and is probably around the 20th best QB and a lot better than 2014 Schaub. The 7-9 and 8-8 may be possible, but I'm thinking 4-6 wins. Maybe less if Andre doesn't come in for training camp.
I agree that we were actually lucky to have last year happen. We may not have Kansas City's bounce back in terms of wins, but we may actually surpass them in overall ceiling. It is much better to have tanked as we did for the 2014 draft than the 2013, and I'm not just talking about the #1 overall pick. Any other year a guy like Sua Filo, the best OG prospect in the draft, would be picked in the first round (see DeCastro in 2012, Warmack in 2013). Up and down the draft we heard from scouts about how unusual it was to still have so much talent so late. Compare this to 2013 when the consensus was that there were only 15-20 guys who even graded out as first round worthy. Lewan the #3 OT taken this year might have been the first taken in 2013. Marqise Lee who went mid-2nd this year might have been taken by the Texans over Nuk Hopkins had he been available. All told, the Texans pulled off a great tank job in 2013, something akin to Indy's suck for luck year, nothing close to the Spurs all time #1 of landing Tim Duncan after years of championship contention. We took an 8-10 win team with no hope for a Super Bowl and slingshotted ourselves into a team with limitless potential in the next 2-5 years. How many of y'all are like me and feel like this offseason is so much brighter than last. Sure, we lost a ton of pieces and all hopes for success with the old regime. But somehow now, there's hope again. Our coach didn't vote for Bob Dole. Teams will actually have to guess at our gameplan for once. Change is in the air.
Lucky or unlucky, I just thank the good lord that Kubiak and Schaub are gone. Good riddance to the kings of mediocrity.
Although I'm not excited about this draft class. That was a great take. But until they get a quarterback they are just spitting in the wind. The NFL is a "Quarterback's league" and right now we don't have one.
I'll stop short of saying playoff run, but I agree that there should be a strong immediate bounce back: -Despite the calamity at QB and a line that openly quit last year, we were still #11 in ypg....we were terrible because we couldn't cash in (#31 ppg). There are some big IFs in Andre and Foster, but there's no serious reason to think that QB play will be worse than last year even if Fitzpatrick is at the helm. Add in an upgrade at TE and G. Don't forget that teams had completely caught on to Kubiak's playcalling and trounced us for not changing things up. -Earl Mitchell Memorial Highway replaced with the Louis Nix Stonewall. Mercilus making way for Clowney. Lots of serious beef vying for the other DE spot. Reed and possibly Bullough helping out inside. Safety position shored up. Not a complete fix, and we still have to see what Crennel really does with his version of the 3-4, but only two teams had fewer sacks than us last year, and I have to think that's about to change with the new guys up front. -Then you've got the schedule - we go from NFC West (Seattle and San Fran) to the mediocre NFC East. We go from the surprisingly competitive AFC West to an AFC North that seems in flux. We go from Ravens and Pats as flex teams to Oakland and Buffalo. No schedule is truly creampuff (we still have Ravens and Eagles), but this one isn't oppressive. -Division means everything, and the Colts did not make major strides this offseason. Didn't pick until #59 in the draft, and only came away with 5 players (no first or 4th rd selections). Defensive backfield managed to get thinner. And, they now have to face the other conference division winners instead of us. Pats, Ravens, and Broncos all on their slate this time around. I'm expecting 7 or 8 wins, but if O'Brien does a great job and things break our way, 9 or 10 wins are not absurd.
Here's how I see it. 10-6 WASHINGTON REDSKINS W at Oakland Raiders L at New York Giants L BUFFALO BILLS W at Dallas Cowboys W INDIANAPOLIS COLTS# W at Pittsburgh Steelers# L at Tennessee Titans W PHILADELPHIA EAGLES L BYE WEEK at Cleveland Browns L CINCINNATI BENGALS W TENNESSEE TITANS W at Jacksonville Jaguars W at Indianapolis Colts L BALTIMORE RAVENS W JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS W
Texans might have been unlucky but they were also really bad last year. It wasn't just one area either they were bad in all 3 phases. The defense got praised for giving up so few yards, but they were god awful against the run and caused 4 turnovers for the season which was the worst in the history of the league. The fact that we drafted so much on defense shows what I mean. I think the defense is going to be pretty good, but whomever is the starting QB I think who will start is the guy who doesn't make mistakes.
Aren't the Texans 3-17 in their last 20 games? (Counting last season and the epic failure of an end to the season before) Bad teams tend to create their bad luck
2014 Houston Texans = 2013 Kansas City Cheifs I think we'll win atleast 9-10 games. We're gonna bounce back just like Kansas City did
I'd imagine that 3-17 record matters about as much as Schaub's 18-4 record in his 22 games heading into week 3 of last season.....
Sucked while it was unfolding, but the death of the Kubiak/Schaub Era made it all worth it. Shame it had to take a complete disaster for McNair to open his eyes.
