[Grantland] Free Agent Hype: Mario Williams

He makes a good case for Mario's importance and value that a lot of people around here that under-appreciate him probably ought to stop and take notice of.

The rest of the league probably agrees with that statement more than the Texans fans do, which says something particularly sad about us.

I thought this was especially true:

In hindsight, it was a perfect storm of bad timing, bad luck, and bad management that may end up sending Mario out the door. If Frank Bush doesn't completely flop, we resign Mario. If Mario doesn't get hurt the last two years, we resign Mario. If the lockout doesn't happen, we resign Mario. If Wade Phillips doesn't perform a minor miracle, we resign Mario. All of those things came together in the perfect order to cause this to happen.

 

I still think they'll work something out.

 

Don't forget that Barnwell is purposely writing these pieces from the perspective of the player's agent.

 

This is a key point from the article.

 

it's all about health. really the past 3 seasons he has been dinged, in '09 he just played through it. dinged again in '10 and then they shut him down with the hernia. and of course last year with the pec.

at the end of the day I still think he will be a Texan, but his past 3 years have rightfully been a cause of concern. can't put that on the FO

 

I can't believe he would compare him to Reggie White. Reggie White prior to becoming a FA, never had a season without double digit sacks. White had 21 sacks in only 12 games in his best season. Reggie White also averaged nearly 100 tackles a season for the Eagles in addition to averaging over a sack a game.

Mario Williams has never averaged a sack/game for any one season. He only has double digit sack totals in 2 out of 6 seasons (injuries played a role) and his highest tackle total in any one season is 44.

Right now, as a pass-rushing OLB, he isn't the best at the position. DeMarcus Ware is what Mario wishes he was.

Even at DE, I'd rather have Jared Allen.

 

I missed that.

 

I'm hoping the FO cuts a few players that haven't been making the cut (no pun intended) and restructure whatever players have been underplaying what their contract is worth then we re-sign both Mario and Arian, then build upon our solid foundation thru the draft.

We really don't need to bring in a FA for our #2 wideout position (more mula) and we don't need to waste our first round pick on any particular receiver with how deep this draft goes at the position.

Good thing is that we have options and hopefully we can lock up what we have and build thru the draft as we've learned to do (finally).

 

The other side of the story ...

Letting Mario Go: The Video Argument

with the truth somewhere in between.

 

Well, he was writing with an open bias towards fluffing up Mario's value as well as he could, and absolutely worked over the stats (in the worst way) to do so.

And the league has a history of vastly overvaluing and overpaying marquee FAs and nursing buyers regret in short order: Nate Clements, Albert Haynesworth, and Asomugha come to mind. There are flip coin examples (Peppers in Chicago, Freeny in Indy, etc), but outside interest isn't a clinching argument.

I think plenty appreciate him - it's not a case like Dunta where folks are happy to show him the door. I think 99% agree that squeezing dimes and keeping Mario-Arian-Myers is the most desired scenario. But the main idea is, if there isn't enough money to go around, the most expensive player probably needs to be the one to go. And the cost/benefit of Mario is dubious compared to Foster and Myers, especially if he's going to command 6/$80M with $30+M guaranteed.

Things intentionally left out of the article's JC Denton stat gallery:
Of Mario's career 53 sacks, 30.5 (58%) came in his first 3 years
Of Mario's career 241 tackles, 159 (66%) came in his first 3 years
Nagging to severe injuries have hampered Mario in 4 out of 6 seasons.

I want Mario to stay, when he's healthy he can dominate up front. But it's been several years since he's been healthy.

Give him the best offer you can that won't compromise resigning Foster and Myers. Maybe have a last ditch offer that would cut out Myers (draft Konz). But you can't let things play out into March and lose guys while Mario's agent plays the field. We can't match a full market offer. If he wants to play the market, let him go and resign Myers while you still can. Don't lose both. Don't go chasing waterfalls. Stick to rivers and lakes you're used to.

 

Next man up.

 

Keep in mind: Mario Williams just turned 27. Players of his talent level, at his age, almost never hit the open market. Reggie White, by comparison, turned 31 his first year in Green Bay. Even Julius Peppers was 30 when he signed with Chicago.

I hope the Texans are being diligent in their evaluation of Mario Williams. He's obviously very good; money aside, I think we'd all love to have him back. But injury and, as a result, production has to be factored in here, and I think there are enough concerns about both to fall on the "let him go" side.

The worst case scenario here, bar none, is signing him to a huge deal and then he doesn't live up to it. You can't crush your cap in that way. No one should fear him going elsewhere and becoming a beast. That's the price of business. But overpaying for him.... you can't do it.

 

Mario Williams is a so much more complete player than Ware, it's not funny. Ware is godawful against the run, and is the primary reason the Cowboys were so bad against the run this year. DeMarcus Ware is the rich man's version on Jason Babin. Sure, sacks get stacks, but if you're going to spend the money, 32 out of 32 defensive coordinators would rather have Williams than Ware.

 

Link or did you poll them yourself?

 

right? This is not in any way meant to be an objective piece about Mario. It's written as if he's Mario's agent.

I'm fine making him an offer...but holy hell, let's not make him out to be Reggie White.

 

Couldn't disagree more. Ware has spent his career at WOLB, and still his worst season in tackles (58) has only been matched by Mario a single time (59). Maybe I'm disappointed if my ILB is averaging 70 tackles a year, but not my WOLB.

And Mario is hardly a run stopper. Never has been. He'll occupy a couple blockers, but that's usually the most he contributes.

Ware >>>>>> Mario

I do agree that rush specialists are overvalued - it's all or nothing with them. I'd much rather have a 100 tackle, 8 sack guy than a 50 tackle, 16 sack guy.

 

^
While I won't say Mario is better than ware, comparing the number of tackles for a LB to a DE is not near fair.

Nor is how much you are discounting Mario Agaisnt the run... He is very good Agaisnt it. He does more than just occupy blockers. He sets the li e of scrimmage and causes disruptions.

 

weslinder squarely said Ware was "worthless" against the run. The tackles say otherwise. And while an ILB and SOLB (and SS) are going to have the highest tackles on any team, the WOLB and right DE are fairly equivalent in what they see against the run.

And I'm not saying Mario is "worthless" against the run himself, but he isn't a run-stopper, and to suggest that Mario is great against the run and Ware isn't.....hot damn.