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Grantland.com: Morey invented the Pythagorean Theorem

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Carl Herrera, Sep 6, 2011.

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  1. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    Or something like it. Thought this bit of info was interesting. No wonder Morey likes to talk about how "good wins don't win close games, they avoid them."

    http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/6934823/grantland-mega-nfl-preview-part-ii

     
    #1 Carl Herrera, Sep 6, 2011
  2. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    Didn't we argue a lot during the first half of last season when our point-differential was much better than our win-loss record?
     
    #2 Easy, Sep 6, 2011
  3. jevon3012

    jevon3012 Member

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    It may be a flawed statistic if you read the article. Basically the Colts with Manning have exceeded their Pythagorean expectations for wins based on points for and points against for 9.9 season or something like that. If you read the footnotes, this is very statistically significant.
     
    #3 jevon3012, Sep 6, 2011
  4. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Member

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    Maybe teams like the Colts will be considered as one of those rare exceptions they spoke about.
     
    #4 coachbadlee, Sep 6, 2011
  5. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!
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    Rudy used to have a system where Road wins were more valuable than Home wins.

    Sometimes..these are funny....wins are wins....

    DD
     
    #5 DaDakota, Sep 6, 2011
  6. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    Daz y dallas champion but houston lottery cuz cuban knows clutch morey does not
     
    #6 meh, Sep 6, 2011
  7. HI Mana

    HI Mana Member

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    Easy way to tell if you're overachieving during the year is Road Wins - Home Losses. At the end of the year, this figure will exactly equal the number of games you're over .500. Thus, during the year you can get a general guideline of how you're doing against expectations; a big minus number means you're going to have to win a bunch more, while a big positive number shows the team might still have hope even with a bad record.
     
    #7 HI Mana, Sep 6, 2011
  8. Pieman2005

    Pieman2005 Member

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    Morey always trying to use stats to say "Hey, the Rockets don't suck". And then we go out and miss the playoffs.
     
    #8 Pieman2005, Sep 7, 2011
  9. rolyat93

    rolyat93 Contributing Member

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    Quote of the day right there folks
     
    #9 rolyat93, Sep 7, 2011
  10. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    Actually, when the Rockets had a good record during the 1st half of the 09/10 season (and was, at one time, on a pace to win 50 games) but was doing so by winning many close games, Morey tweeted something like "we can't continue doing this because eventually the odds are our luck will run out."

    He didn't invent the concept or formula when he was working at STATS, Inc. years ago in order to make an argument about the 2010/2011 Rockets. He also didn't apply the concept inconsistently to argue in favor of the Rockets.

    BTW, I think football is a little bit different than basketball in terms of applying this formula. Specifically, scoring drives are relatively rare in football, and the "great success" scenario (touchdown) is worth a lot more than "mild success" (field goal) or failure (turnover on downs, or, worse yet, fumble lost or INT). In basketball, for example, teams score roughly 1/2 of the time, and mostly you get 2 points, some times 1 or 3, very rarely 4 or more.


    What this means is that, in football, if you have someone who is really great in the "clutch" (2 minute drills), that might make a lot more difference than having a player (like Chris Paul) who is great at executing the last possession of the basketball game with time running out: you can get a 7 point swing instead of a 2 or 3 point swing in a game with scores generally in the 20s rather than the 100s.
     
    #10 Carl Herrera, Sep 7, 2011
    Last edited: Sep 7, 2011
  11. bobrek

    bobrek Politics belong in the D & D

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    Not true.

    21-20 on the road
    21-20 at home

    2 games over .500 for the year

    21 road wins - 20 home losses = 1

    11-30 on the road
    41-00 at home

    22 games over .500 for the year

    11 road wins - 0 home losses = 11.
     
    #11 bobrek, Sep 7, 2011
  12. conquistador#11

    conquistador#11 Member

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    well, he better invent a way to get dwight howard in the roster. :)
     
    #12 conquistador#11, Sep 7, 2011
  13. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    In both your examples, multiply the result by 2.
     
    #13 JuanValdez, Sep 7, 2011
  14. droxford

    droxford Member

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    so..... the formula is as follows:

    Pythagorean expectation formula (applied to basketball):

    ((points for)^14)/(((points for)^14) + ((points against)^14))

    ... where "points for" is the points that our team scored, and "points against" is the points that we allowed out opponents to score.

    .... and John Hollinger uses this formula, but with 16.5 as the exponent.


    BUT...

    I question the accuracy of using such math.

    For example.. a team may dominate its opponent and enter the fourth quarter with a 30 point lead.... then put in their 2nd or 3rd string players, let their lead slip, and end the game with a six point lead. The formula numbers would then show that the game was much closer than it really was.
     
    #14 droxford, Sep 7, 2011
  15. Kam

    Kam Contributing Member

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    daamn.

    Texans in the last column!
     
    #15 Kam, Sep 7, 2011
  16. gwayneco

    gwayneco Contributing Member

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    Looking at 2010-11 NBA:

    - 12 teams finished within 1 win of their projection

    - 17 within 2 wins

    - 20 within 3 wins

    - 26 within 4 wins

    - 29 within 5 wins
     
    #16 gwayneco, Sep 7, 2011
  17. magnetik

    magnetik Contributing Member

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    yeah I guess they think the Texans are going to do well since I can't find their column anywhere.
     
    #17 magnetik, Sep 7, 2011
  18. Kam

    Kam Contributing Member

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    I think Daryl Morey is in Bill Simmons pick em league. You guys can join it to see if you're better than Morey.
     
    #18 Kam, Sep 8, 2011
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