[Grantland] Bill Simmons/Jalen Rose Analysis of NBA Teams ('13-'14)

They won't have the free agency dollars to chase Pau.

 

I said I wasn't an "ALL" PER guy. I recognize its flaws. But I also recognize it's a pretty dang useful attempt at an all-encompassing stat.

No I didn't. I just noted it was interesting how Lopez had a higher PER last year, and a similar improvement to Asik with the increased playing time.

Sure, but don't sell Lopez short there either. Also, let's not get it twisted. I was using blocks per minute. Who were the top 5 blocks per minute guys last year? McGee, Sanders, Ibaka, Hibbert, Duncan. Um... yes, those ARE some of the best defensive guys. You don't HAVE to be supremely high in that category to be a great big-man defender (see Chuck Hayes)... but there's clearly a high correlation there.

It is interesting that Asik was "relatively" low in that category. But as you noted, he is a great all-around and team defender. Plays pick and roll well, can guard out of the paint a bit, and is one heck of a rebounder.

I agree... Asik is a better player than Lopez... I'm not proposing trading Asik for Robin Lopez.

Yes, again, Asik is better than Lopez.... duh?

Who proposed such a trade?

You're forgetting context, though. We have Dwight Howard at the 5. We have effectively nobody at the 4. In the realm of building the best roster, the question is, do you prefer rolling the dice at the 4 and rolling with the luxury of Asik as a backup center... OR do you take every argument you've just made about why Asik is so great, and try and flip it for a solid return.

I think the answer is the latter. Now it's just a matter of what you can get in return.

I like Anderson... IF you can fill that backup 5 spot with a solid rebounder/defender type... ALA Lopez. Someone clearly not as good as Asik, but better suited for the role if you can upgrade the 4.

Well, for one, there are other guys I'd rather flip Asik for. Horford. LMA. Ersan Ilyasova. Kevin Love. I'm not sure any of those are happening any time soon. Or if they were to happen, you are also now including Lin - which is fine, but changes the discussion again.

Second, let's ignore your Garcia comment. Nobody is confusing him for a 4.

Anderson is a better 3 point shooter than both Parsons and Casspi. He has done it at a higher clip, for longer, while taking A LOT more three's. The last part is important. Not just shooting at a very very solid %, but at that same % in volume. And while not a great rebounder, he's generally been better than both Parsons and Casspi on a per minute basis in that area. And while clearly not a defensive stalwart at the 4, I'd certainly argue he is more suited to guard 4's than any of them.

Let's throw out Casspi, too. People are over-inflating his preseason. to argue that Casspi can do everything Anderson can is ludicrous.

So the issue is do we need an Anderson when we have a Parsons? Maybe not. But if I can get a second Parsons, who really IS a better rebounder, more suited to guard 4s (even if still not great), and a better shooter and scorer, then wouldn't I want to do that?

DM is waiting... which I definitely respect.

I just don't want him to wait so long that he doesn't maximize the roster and Asik's trade value goes down because of his decreased effectiveness as a member of this squad.

Everything is important. Go back and look at championship and deep playoff teams historically, and you'll find they were good pretty much everywhere.

Asik and Parsons didn't "lead" anybody anywhere. That's the point. Looking at where this team is, what the holes are, how to best fill, at what expense, etc.

I suspect DM is holding out for something better, for a more complete roster, etc. To which I've noted multiple times, I agree. BUT if you could get a Lopez type as a backup, then I think DM would be more inclined to make an Asik/Anderson flip.

But what do I know?

 

Simmons is probably assuming addition by subtraction, but yeah I just don't get it unless you expect Henson to make a huge jump this year. Jennings/Ellis/Reddick > Knight/Mayo/Neal (in my mind). Their bench will likely be sneaky good offensively, but defensively it will be a nightmare and the reverse can be said about the starting 5.

 

I think they're gonna have a joke that they completely forgot Milwaukee has a professional basketball team.

 

This.

Or they are predicting the Bucks make a big time trade, short sighted trade for Rudy Gay or something. I don't get it.

 

I was on board with Milwaukee being better than Cleveland, but it's actually starting to get ridiculous.

 

Lillard is crazy overrated and Davis is crazy underrated. Jalen is completely wrong when he says when they were both playing Lillard was better. Davis was 5.3 PER points better (21.7 vs. 16.4) and actually ended up with 0.3 more win shares while playing 1300 less minutes. Anthony Davis is the superior player.

 

His rankings are more based off playoffs, as I understand it. Simmons believes the Bucks are a playoff team, so he has them in the top 16.

 

That makes sense. I view them as the worst playoff team, however.

 

Couldn't agree more. Lillard is also MUCH closer to his ceiling.

Anthony Davis will become a top 5 player in the NBA, Lillard will be lucky to end up in the top 20.

 

image on Grantland reveals full rankings

Spoiler

 

Wow....
Bulls #1?!
Nets #3?!
Pacers #4?!

This ranking so messed up. Don't even get me started on Bucks placement.

 

Miami will coast in the regular season while Bulls back with Rose will want to prove something. Makes sense to me.

 

I could not agree with this comment more.

Anderson is not my first choice, but he's probably a more realistic one. And if we can find a way to fill the backup C position with someone who isn't Greg smith I would be very, very interested in what Anderson brings.

 

Just like they coasted last year to twenty something wins in a row.

 

I have no idea why you keep including Lin, he's not needed for contract purposes (just dmo or jones and all the contracts are within the trade rules), and with the exception of milwaukee, it's not a contract they'd want for what his role would be (this would be especially true for minny and portland who are handing their teams over to their current pg)

 

I think that's the first time I mentioned Lin in this thread??

But the reason I add him to deals for clearly better players than Asik, is because the other team(s) in the trade would clearly want more in return, and I don't foresee TJones or DMo being that more. I don't think the Rockets trade Parsons. Lin already has a backup who is a probable solid run the ship guy, even though not as good as Lin can be. Lin is the other obvious piece to move, and if DM could work out a trade (single, two team, multiple teams, whatever) that netted him Love, LMA, or Horford, I suspect he'd be more than willing to part with Asik and Lin.