Grading 2015 NBA Free Agent Salaries

yeah , I didn't see your thread and posted it in the Lowe/Jones one.
Amazing article and the most comprehensive analysis I have seen.
Its interesting that it shows Gasol as poor value though. And it hasn't accounted for injuries (i.e Matthews).

 

If Gasol's contract is valued as poor then Dwight's next one could very possibly become one of the worst values next year.

 

True that Gasol and Dwight may have contracts that are poor values, but if a team didn't offer those contracts to them, another one would have. So it really depends on how much you're willing to forego value deals for a certain player. For a guy like Gasol or Dwight, most GMs are willing to forego. For a guy like Roy Hibbert, most GMs aren't.

 

Then we probably let him walk, Dwight isnt worth 30M a year, esp. since we actually have some decent players at the C spot. You can keep DMo, Tjones, resign Lawson and bring in KD by letting DH walk.

 

I honestly think Dwight is overpaid at his current cost .... because as good as he is defensively and rebounding wise , he's a liability offensively. Such a large percentage of his post touches resulting in turnovers , low unassisted FG% and his FT% being hot garbage.

Dwight's FG% is something like 78% on assisted shots generated by the pick and roll and around 37% on unassisted shots that are not dunks.

 

Since we can't really keep DMo and TJones AND we lost Josh Smith, it might have been nice going after Brandon Bass or Luis Scola. This article confirms they would have been good deals.

 

Amen!!!!

 

If the Rockets come to their senses and stop wasting plays by running post-ups for Dwight, he is not a liability on offense. It's that simple.

Dwight can easily get enough alley-oop dunks and putback dunks to average 18 ppg. He's also OK when receiving a pass within 5 feet of the basket. They just have to cut out the nonsense of letting him iso and create his own shot.

Daryl Morey's analytics should have stopped that mess a long time ago.

 

When Brandon Bass and Dwight were on the floor together in Orlando, they did not work well together at all on the offensive end. He's the last guy the Rockets should consider signing.

 

Brewer is one of those type of players you have to watch to "get", so I'm not at all surprised by the average rating.

To me, he's a bargain at that amount. He can single-handedly take over a game in spurts.

 

That's because it's not analytics. It's Dwight basically demanding that he get some post ups when he signed here. If you recall, one of the reasons he left LA was because he didn't like not getting iso touches in D'Antoni's offense. Dwight is basically a suped up Tyson Chandler. Hence, why some posters originally wanted to keep Asik and go for Love or Aldrige in lieu of Dwight (but hey, when a top 3 Center wants to play for your team, you don't say no).

 

I'm in complete agreement .... but like da_juice said in the post above , Dight demands those opportunities.
It wasn't until he had a sit down with The Big E telling him he needed to let the offense come to him that he backed down on those post demands. Later in the season those post ups were reduced significantly.


I'm almost certain that Morey's analytics had something to do with Hayes talking to Dwight in the first place .... He being one of the few people he would listen to being a HOFer.

 

1. You just said Dwight should not be creating offense for the Rockets. If that's the case, I don't see how Bass and Howard would even be interacting much on offense. The question would be does Bass fit with Harden and Lawson. Bass has a solid jumper, so he'd fit in fine. He'd be like a modern day Tony Masenberg, a role player who gives you good D and can hit the open jump shot.

2. We're just talking about a backup PF here.

3. We're talking about a measly $3M investment. Show me a better value contract for a PF not on a rookie contract.

So, I don't think Bass is "the last guy the Rockets should consider signing."

 

Actually, I just looked at his stats (probably should have done that earlier) and I had thought he was a better rebounder. Maybe he wouldn't be the best fit. I guess I just don't know who is going to be the backup power forward, if one buys into the narrative that we can't keep Jones and DMo. Is Harrell ready? Maybe that's a question for another thread........

 

You assume the Rockets won't TRADE for another power forward.

I just don't see the Rockets keeping ALL of Trevor Ariza (3 more years left on his contract), Corey Brewer (3 years), K.J. McDaniels (3 years) and Sam Dekker (up to 4 years, plus a right of first refusal after that) long term. One of those guys (maybe even two) will probably get dealt at some point this season or next summer to address issues at other positions.

 

Very, very good point. It could be interesting. It's almost not even worth speculating, since Morey is always 10 steps in front of me. It's still fun though! Thanks, Bima

 

I think KJ is the first to go. He just screams "assest". Good contract, a lot of potential, young player. If he gets some nice PT due to an injury, his stock could rise and we could sell high.

 

I really think KJ is the wildcard at the position .... If he plays well , he could make one of the guys ahead of him on the depth chart expendable ??

Hard to see Ariza being moved at least until his final year. He's been a rock solid starter at a position that is stacked with talent across the league.

Brewer - I could see being moved if KJ steps up his game .... His contract is big enough that you can make it the centerpiece of a fairly big deal.

KJ is much like Brewer in their overall games but with more defensive ability & less polish on the offensive end. If he can improve that outside shot , he could also get time as Harden's backup. If he doesn't show improvement , he's a trade chip.

Dekker - I can see him getting minutes at the 4 in small ball lineups. Could be a trade piece but its hard to give up on young talent so quickly.

 

I believe KJ will be here next season. It takes years for good talent to develop in the NBA. Great talent can have an immediate effect, witness Chris Paul. The roster injuries will determine if Jones is here this time next year. If the Rockets have a repeat of last season no big will be traded.

We will see how small ball treats McHale next season. I personally am looking forward to a DMo-Ariza front court. With Lawson as the PG and Harden and Dekker playing the wings. That will be fascinating. If Dekker can hit 32% of his threes in that lineup it will be offensively devastating and at least mediocre on defense.

The only two current players I am sure will be on the roster for the 16-17 season are Harden and DMo. I could see DMo as the center in 16-17 allowing Capela to develop with 16 minutes a game for another season. I just cannot see Morey forking over $28.2M for an aging Howard. At $15M Howard would be worth taking a chance on. We will see. I have no crystal ball.