Government showdown of 2023

Saying that means sh$t. You aren’t taking a position. You say nothing and want credit for having some sort of bold take.

Here’s what a take actually looks like:

-Yes I believe the MAGA R’s would use their power to not lift the debt ceiling to try and crash the economy and most want to just to see what happens.
-No I don’t believe the debt ceiling law from 1917 is Constitutional
-No in a perfect world Biden should have claimed their hostage situation as unconstitutional and refused out of principle, and reverence for the constitution.
-Yes most of the economy would have functioned normal minus state parks temporarily closing, social security checks maybe being delayed, etc.
-Yes the stock market would have plunged and sent us into a horrible tailspin. Putting USD in question for stability and left China with narrative that Yen is more stable for the global banks to switch to eventually.

-Yes the media would have spun that narrative as Biden’s fault for not negotiating regardless if I believe he was right for not negotiating with a terrorist.
-Yes I do believe that and a true recession would have led to Biden for sure losing in 24.

-Yes I also believe even now, MAGA R’s will try to tank this deal which is why I think Biden ultimately knew he had to make it. If the MAGA R’s tank the deal now, the media will have to admit that it was Biden who came to a compromise deal and it was the MAGA R’s decision to blow it all up.

-Yes I believe the cuts to programs could really hurt Biden with the progressive base in 24.

In the end it is a lose lose situation. All because the US entertainment media and the ignorance of US voters allows for narratives to affect responsible governance. Our decisive voter base on the margins at any point could plunge the US into a right wing autocratic version of Democracy overnight if we aren’t already there given the power grabs at the state and judiciary level with the MAGA autocrats.

 

They absolutely could try, but they'd be in the same position as January. There's no one else that can get majority support either. It would provide some great entertainment though to see how many votes it takes this time!

 

The stakes are especially high for McCarthy (R-Calif.), whose survival as speaker could be at stake if he can't contain the anger of right-wing Republicans who already are panning the compromise.

• A source close to the House GOP leadership told Axios that perhaps 60 conservative Republicans won't vote for it. That means McCarthy could need votes from nearly that many Democrats to get the plan through the divided House.

https://www.axios.com/2023/05/28/mccarthy-biden-big-debt-ceiling-test​

 

Perhaps, but... Biden and Democrats will point to mccarthy and republicans backing out of the "fair deal" negotiated, accepted, and bragged about by mccarthy on all the Sunday morning news shows. The republicans lose the story that Biden refused to negotiate. Biden will be able to show how he not only negotiated but got mccarthy's agreement.

Furthermore, the extremists in the republican party will need to remove mccarthy. That will put an even weaker speaker in place who will get even less support. Biden will be able to point to the insanity in the republican party ("You want me to work with that?!?"). Instead of a near 50% republicans will be nearer 30%.

So sure, republicans can try to pin this on Biden, but Biden's numbers are improving slight right now... let's see what happens when social security checks stop and Biden restarts associating republicans with killing Social Security.

 

Good to hear. Haven’t seen all the details yet of the cuts made. However listening to progressive radio this AM on the way to get breakfast, the Bernie bros were out there in outrage. One caller was advocating for Biden’s impeachment.

Which I think speaks well to the polling numbers. Biden and basically any coalition Democrat will almost always be unpopular with the progressive wing of the base because a Democrat in split government will never be able to get anything close to what they want… which is totally fine for Democracy and reasonable to expect.

Presidents are hired to do a job. It’s only 4 or 8 years. Work your a$$ off and do everything you can for the American people in that time. It should be a thankless and hard job. The opposite of what MAGA autocrats want it to be when they conjure up an electoral win.

Biden in this case I think is doing the best one can expect him to do in our current system. He’s taking a bite of a sh*t sandwhich because last year enough voters decided they wanted arsonists to take control of the House and we’re okay with the results. Biden is doing as good a job as one could be expected and all the Monday morning quarterbacking is just people wanting to feel like they have some sort of special plan that the White House just didn’t know existed…. Which of course they did.

 

The same

Bernie that already has endorsed Biden for 2024.

 

They aren’t that bad. The country needs a progressive movement to keep the liberals party focused on the forward movement instead of pandering to corporations who happen to support Dems.

Yeah they go overboard from time to time but they are not trying to blow up the government to get power like the MAGA R’s will do. Bernie especially always in the end does the right thing for the country. AOC will do show votes when her vote isn’t needed just to prove a point, but I’ve never seen her tank a real bill for the Democrats and the American people.

Now the Bernie bros who call into progressive radio… I just chalk that up to an ignorance of how government works and a lack of pragmatism that many have. People in the US often have a sense that they are the only ones the government of a president are there to serve personally. It is what it is with having our post WW2 culture.

 

I don’t think it’s positive or smart. She only did it because she knew the bill was going to pass. I want to see her be in a situation where her vote matters on a bill to really understand how strong of a political figure she’d be on the national stage. Since Bernie and Liz Warren are Senators they have proven that they are serious about doing the right thing in the end for the country. For AOC and a few others, they have little power in the end and are unproven leaders in the party.

Now on the GOP side we actually have a situation where MAGA R’s have the speaker by the balls because of the cluster F that was the speaker vote. MTG has power that AOC of Talib have never had. Right now it’s not a good use of anyone’s time to get all worked up about them.

 

Being respectful and complementary makes you a hypocrite?

This is what's wrong with the GOP.