Why not? Are you being sarcastic here or is the CLP5 track actually like a historical forcast model and not an actual simulation? BTW, I still think that the center of circulation is about 20 miles north of that thunderstorm convection.
Not being sarcastic and yes its just a model based on climatology. ie. what storms have done in the past.
I just googled it and it actually appears it is not particularly accurate, at least based on what I can find. I am just reading what the websites say, but it appears to be just a database of what previous storms at the same time of year in the same place have done and doesn't take into account current conditions. CLP5 = CLIPER5 [rquoter] CLIPER (CLImatology and PERsistence) is a 3-day statistical model (CLIPER5 is a 5-day version of the same model). It uses the current path of a tropical cyclone and an average of historical paths of similar cyclones to come up with a track, and is considered a "no-skill" model. Curiously, until the late 1980s, this was actually the most accurate model. Forecast skill is determined by comparing forecasts against this model. [/rquoter] source
I had my Scorpions YouTube embed ready, then I realized this thread isn't "Good Songs for the 2008 Hurricane Season."
Woops. Center relocated under that mid level circulation that mazyar was pointing out earlier. These developing systems can be tricky. Check out this crazy graphic. 5AM forecast track should be very interesting. Given that this relocation has caused Dolly to miss most of the Yucatan I think there is cause for concern along the Texas coast. Stay tuned people this could get crazy.
hilarious, this guy who wrote this blog seemed to be completely off. the water is very warm in the gulf. also, i think I heard somewhere that this has been a fairly active july.
Thanks for giving me the credit. That's what happens when I stare at the satelite loop for more than 10 minutes. I tend to pick up things that others might not. Anyways, looks like a landfall near South Padre Island as a minimal hurricane.
More north please, Dolly. At least be nice enough to cover us with some heavy gulf moisture for a day or two.
The track keeps inching north every couple of hours. That seems to happen to storms following this type of path through the Gulf.
A tropical storm watch has been issued for just west of Galveston starting at San Luis Pass and going south towards Corpus.
It is strange how many storms jog north....UNLESS they are in the lower gulf...for some reason most of those storms job west. Here is to hoping it jogs north and hits the coast of Texas as a TS and dumps days of rain on Austin. I am putting on my Rain dance gear and heading outside with my bongos. DD
LATEST from the National Hurricane Center. For our sake, Dolly will be biggest just before landfall: Oh, come now... like ya'll didn't think about Dolly coming...
According to Jeff Masters' blog, Dolly already has a pretty large circulation. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=992&tstamp=200807 Personally, looking at the satellite image, the entire storm looks like the size of Texas. I like this quote from Masters' blog. *with large bossoms.
Storms naturally tend to move northward towards the pole, so there is a natural pull in that direction unless something else in the upper atmosphere prevents it. However, in the southern Gulf, the steering currents are very weak and there are some natural elements that tend to keep storms from moving northward - namely the close proximity to land on three sides and the shallow waters. For those who are watching the models, the GFS and GFDL are the most reliable in general. The CLIPS is irrelevant - just a composite based on previous storm tracks. The NOGAPS and UKMET are the other of the better dynamic models. Others like the LBAR and the various BAMM models are not considered terribly accurate. The best is always the NHC cone. They are remarkably accurate out to 5 days.
