Here are the latest GFDL models: First up the animation: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008071912-invest94l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation and now the pic: Unfortunately though these models are pretty useless until this thing becomes a depression and an actual center of circulation can be found from which it can be actually be tracked. Case in point in the last two and a half days the GFDL has shifted from back and forth several times between Louisiana and Texas and now has moved all the way down to northern Mexico.
That thing would pretty much miss Houston IF it were to go to the east of us. Lake Charles would be screwed, again. I kindof like the excitement behind a hurricane, watching paranoid people flee even if they are 60 miles from the coast.
This definitely bears watching but lets wait until Monday to see what we've got. This would be Dolly if it forms. In other news...Cristobal formed earlier off the Carolina coast and appears to be headed to Nova Scotia. Bertha was quite a record breaker and has been active nearly the entire month of July but is finally on its way out of the picture. Though it was never in the picture for anyone other than Bermuda. Still Bertha was a fascinating storm.
Agreed. I stayed when Rita was supposed to hit Houston and I'll stay for anything else. The worst part about a Hurricane is the loss of power for days/weeks. The rain and wind, blah. I dig nature.
It was Katrina that scared the piss out of everyone. Also, Dr. Neil Frank. People didn't realize that Houston ISN'T A BOWL like New Orleans.
Stop kissing my weather nerd ass. We COULD have 5 named storms before August 1. Probably won't and the first one probably shouldn't have been named (doubt it would have 10 years ago), but that's still impressive. The 8 weeks from August 7 through September 21 is the heart of the season for us in Texas. Doesn't mean we won't get something before then, but that period is the time of year I wish I had a vacation house in some really beautiful place with temperatures in the 70's.
Man, it's dry up there. I went to Pace Bend park a week ago, and the water was so freakin low. The spot we camped at on the 25th of May had the perfect little entrance along the cliffs. I went back to that spot last week, and it was a 15FT+ difference on the cliff.
Here we go. Hello Dolly ! This thing is moving rather quickly and we need to keep our eyes on it. We'll know more by tomorrow but right now it seems to have brownsville in its sights. At the speed this thing is moving its not going to give us much time to prepare if it decides to curve a little right of current projection.
Let it keep trucking at that speed, with the water temps not really that high i the Gulf, its far more likely to remain a TS by the time it hits. I say this of course with the disclaimer that with tropical systems ANYTHING can happen, but the odds are with us. most current models from wunderground
Looking at the latest satellite images, it seems to me like the center of circulation is actually a bit more north than what the official advisory says. If that is the case, then look for the next forcast tracks to be shifted a bit more to the north. Looks like an extreme south Texas landfall.
I think it highly unlikely that this thing remains a TS once in the GOM. Conditions are forecast to be highly favorable for development once there. The only question is how much the Yucatan disrupts the core. The speed that its currently moving is somewhat a negative in this aspect. The quicker it gets across the Yucatan into the favorable conditions in the Gulf the greater the chance at strengthening once there. The NHC seems to be taking a conservative approach with the intensity, but I think anything is possible here. We'll see Monday.
That is not the center of circulation. Take a look a this satellite loop and look closely at the burst of convection in the center. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/pro...ting_image=2008AL04_1KMSRVIS_200807201345.GIF
check the SHIPS intensity forecast on that last models graphic. it shows a forecast max winds of 75 at 72 hours, meaning that it will be a very minimal Cat 1 at landfall. Of course, this is all academic at this point, but still...Im sure that model took into account the factors.
