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Good News on Unemployment

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by Pimphand24, Dec 4, 2009.

  1. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Member
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    That's an increase of 250,000 people over the course of one year. So it's hard to guage that from October to November - 1 month.

    I found this:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-rate-falls-to-10-as-job-losses-shrink-2009-12-04

    So i appears overall, that the "real" unemployment rate has indeed declined as well last month.
     
  2. BetterThanEver

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    Let's look at the marketwatch.

    Even though the number of people employed drop by 11k, the unemployment rate went down. Does that make sense? The rate went down, due to the 80k additional discourage people that increased from October to November. They were removed from the totals.

    Those numbers include "seasonal adjustments" that lowered the rate from October to November. They can give an "seasonally adjusted" lower unemployment rate, even though payrolls are still dropping as mentioned in your link.

    U-6

    Not Seasonally Adjusted
    Oct. Nov.
    2009 2009
    16.3 16.4

    Seasonally Adjusted
    Oct. Nov.
    2009 2009
    17.5 17.2
     
  3. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Member
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    Interesting stuff. Well, I still think it's a positive sign.

    Looks like the labor market is at least stabilizing.
     
  4. BetterThanEver

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    Agreed. I just saw this cool chart from CNN Money, this morning. If the trend continues, December/January should show the 1st increase in payrolls since the recession began.

    [​IMG]
     
  5. Pimphand24

    Pimphand24 Member

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    There are other cool graphs on WSJ. I couldn't post them because they were part of an interactive slide, rather than a picture itself.

    Here are the trends
    :

    Temporary Hiring has picked up. +52,400. It used to be negative this whole time.

    Workers are getting more hours: 33.2 hours/week = .2 increase

    Job Losses slow by -11,000.


    By the way, more from the WSJ: "The Labor Department said employers shed 11,000 jobs, the fewest since the recession began in December 2007. Upward revisions showed the nation lost 159,000 fewer jobs in September and October than previously thought."

    I agree with you, BetterthanEver, that there are more people who have given up on job searching and therefore are not counted even though they are jobless, But also keep in mind that the job loss improvement made a huge jump from the previous month.
    There are other negative points that can be made and I'll show them in my next post


    I'm going to post this blog entry from the WSJ, but I just wanted to highlight one passage from the long and dense blog post:

    Revised seasonal adjustment factors accounted for roughly a third of the 159,000 net upward revision to September-October, but the seasonal adjustment to November was more restrictive than a year ago: the seasonally-adjusted level of employment would have been 138,000 higher had last year’s seasonal adjustment factor been used. –Alan Levenson, T. Rowe Price
     
  6. Pimphand24

    Pimphand24 Member

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    Sorry, it is a lot of information. But I find it all interesting and this is an important topic.

    http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/12/04/economists-react-game-changer-report-on-jobs/

    By Phil Izzo

    Economists and others weigh in on the smaller decline in U.S. payrolls and drop in the unemployment rate.

    * This is one of those game-changer reports that should fundamentally alter the perception regarding the economy. We have been steadfast in our belief that the labor market is stabilizing and that payrolls would turn positive around the turn of the year. It is safe to say that many if not most economists have been skeptical that the labor market would perk up, and the jump in the unemployment rate in October seemed to reinforce the negativity around the labor market. Today’s number was a little more and a little faster than we had expected, but it largely jibes with our broad evaluation of the employment picture. However, it should spark a much more significant re-assessment of the economic situation among market participants and the consensus at the Fed. –Stephen Stanley, RBS


    * This report should reduce anxieties about the sustainability of the recovery. However, given the large degree of slack in the labor market, this report does not change our view that the Fed is going to be on hold through next year. –RDQ Economics


    * It will be interesting to see if the Fed begins to shift their recent dovish rhetoric in response to this report. It’s still too early to remove monetary accommodation but if officials continue to emphasize downside risks and don’t start to pave the way for an eventual shift in policy, the bond vigilantes may begin to express some displeasure. –David Greenlaw, Morgan Stanley


    * Wow! That is the only description I can make of the November jobs report. Payrolls were down, but by a minimal amount. Just as good were the revisions to previous months, which now show significantly smaller employment losses. When you have downward revisions to the losses it indicates there was some acceleration in activity that was not initially picked up and that is a great sign. We still have some major problems in construction and manufacturing, which together lost nearly 70,000 workers. In addition, the increases in payrolls were not as broad based as I would like to see. Retailers, wholesalers, information services companies, finance, real estate, insurance and hospitality all were off. Where we saw gains was in temporary workers, education and health care. The percentage of industries that posted gains did rise indicating that there is a broadening in the hiring. –Naroff Economic Advisors


    * The average workweek lengthened to 33.2 hours from 33.0 hours previously. The report suggests firms have stretched the productivity of the current workforce to its limits, and will likely soon begin adding staff. We had previously forecasted that the first increase in payrolls would come in January, but today’s result suggests the economy may reach that milestone in the current month. . –Nomura Global Economics


    * The economy received an early holiday present in the November employment data, a big upside surprise and the best report in two years… If the October payroll report made the labor market appear overly bleak, November’s report may overemphasize early improvement in the economy. The labor market is still shedding jobs at a brisk clip and the unemployment rate will climb again next month, continuing its rise toward a likely peak of 11%. –Joseph Brusuelas, Moody’s Economy.com


    * The revisions to the two prior months were quite considerable, totaling 159,000 jobs… This continues an important trend reversal which previous month’s job losses are revised to show less negative numbers… It is no longer a question of how many more jobs we lose but rather how quickly we add them back. –Dan Greenhaus, Miller Tabak


    * The economic recovery may be gathering momentum. Nevertheless, the bottom line is that five months after the recession ended, the economy is still shedding jobs. Tight credit conditions, uncertainty about the economic outlook, state level fiscal tightening and strong productivity growth are all holding back job creation. None of these factors are likely to fade any time soon, suggesting that the labour market will continue to be this recovery’s Achilles heel. –Paul Ashworth, Capital Economics


    * The recovery in the job market continues, at a pace that will now make politicians happy, with the job losses at just 11,000… Unemployment rates drive politics and those politics will continue to be difficult even at 10%. –John Silvia, Wells Fargo


    * This was a shocking report because the reported payroll data bear little resemblance to any other evidence concerning the labor market, including the ADP survey which is based on hard data from a much wider sample of payrolls than is the government’s survey. Other evidence pointing to considerably weaker conditions are continued anemic readings on consumer confidence and sentiment (including specific questions concerning the labor market), employment sub-indices in ISM and other surveys, etc. Still, this is the “official” picture, and until reported otherwise by the government, these are the numbers in the books, as questionable as they may be. –Joshua Shapiro, MFR Inc.


    * The positive job creation that occurred in certain segments of the industry data is encouraging. Additionally, the slowdown in the pace of decline in a handful of other sub-components squares up nicely with the improvement we have been seeing in the weekly jobless claims reports. On the flip side though, the duration of unemployment continues to increase while earnings remain soft. The main story here is that job destruction is continuing to soften, while job creation is waking up from a long hibernation, albeit very slowly. –Ian Pollick, TD Securities


    * One unfortunate statistic is that the% of unemployed that have been out of work 27 weeks and longer jumped to 38.6% while the group unemployed less than 5 weeks dropped to 18.2%. In other words, while the employment picture is brightening the economy is still far from bringing down the longer term unemployed. It will happen at some point but once these people get back to work they will likely spend a lot more on rebuilding lost savings than on buying new stuff. –Steven Blitz, Majestic Research


    * Note that the headline adjusted number is also far better than is implied by the level of jobless claims, even allowing for the recent drop. There is no doubt the underlying trend in payrolls is improving, but this looks a bit too fast. Looking ahead, though, the continued big gains in temp hiring do suggest headline payrolls will be positive by the end of first quarter, so it seems to be just a matter of timing. –Ian Shepherdson, High Frequency Economics


    * Revised seasonal adjustment factors accounted for roughly a third of the 159,000 net upward revision to September-October, but the seasonal adjustment to November was more restrictive than a year ago: the seasonally-adjusted level of employment would have been 138,000 higher had last year’s seasonal adjustment factor been used. –Alan Levenson, T. Rowe Price

    Compiled by Phil Izzo
     
  7. Pimphand24

    Pimphand24 Member

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    Are you a 1L? Is it possible for you to take a year off and continue your legal education later when hiring picks up?


    SamFisher,

    Does your company or firm have any position open in a Chicago office by any chance?

    I have a friend who got laid off from DLA Piper Chicago. He was a 1st year associate though, which I'm sure doesn't help. But he's dedicated: he works a 9 to 5 for free and still pays rent for his Chicago apartment. :(
     
  8. BetterThanEver

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    Pimphand,

    I found the 4 charts in the slideshow that you were talking about. The WSJ article was an interesting read from those analysts, too.

    Things have definitely picking up. I know somebody that got laid off in the Spring. They have a new job in energy. They found a new job about 2-3 months ago, that pays them about $20k more. :eek: It brings their salary to almost 6 figures in Houston! That's on the high end locally.
     
  9. twhy77

    twhy77 Member

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    I'm a 2L. I want to get back to Dallas, where I'm a very competitive hire. It's just that all the big firms in Dallas either have really small summer classes, or no class at all. Things should pick up by the time I'm a 3L, so we'll see how it goes.
     
  10. Pimphand24

    Pimphand24 Member

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    I'm not going to feed you sunshine. There will be no jobs next fall. And there will definitely not be any 3L hiring. The little that will happen will be with T-14 schools and even they will not get positions.

    I wrote up a long post explaining all the factors going on in the legal market. Unfortunately I hit a wrong button and everything got deleted. I had many good points, honest.

    Most of the post was meant to discourage you, and gave you all the reasons you should take a year off, or try a JD/MBA program that adds an additional year to school, makes you more marketable, and gives you business job options if law doesn't work out. Good thing with business, you can be hired anytime while you sit around unemployed. With law, however, you really need to be employed right after law school and that's just not going to happen by Fall or even Spring.

    If you take a year off, couldn't you still apply for jobs in the summer and early Fall but just not pay tuition yet. If you get a job then great, but if you don't you can tell your law school you have some personal things to take care of and then have the year off. Seriously think about these things.

    However, I wrote, that if you do ignore my advice then you need to do this:

    Look to small and mid-size firms around your law school and around your hometown or any area that you have a connection with.

    Big cities are probably super-saturated. Look to secondary markets if you can.

    NETWORK the hell out of everything. It'll be like you're adding 4 credits to your curriculum but this is your only option.

    TAKE BANKRUPTCY. This is probably the only area that would need you for the next couple of years. Not even IP law is safe these days.

    I think you know this, but have a good internship to fall back on. Doesn't seem too hard to find, but the good ones are competitive (imagine that, a non-paying job is competitive). Court internships would be the best. When the deferred people start their law firm job this January, or later in September, then the non-paying jobs will open up more.

    Oh hey, try for a clerkship right? Isn't this upcoming summer the time for you to apply for that? Give it a shot, definitely in the regions you have a connection with.

    3L hiring won't exist. Firm associates already have no work, if things pickup, they'll just work them harder but no positions will really open. If a big firm wants someone, they'll take from their deferred associates that are sitting around. They've been tried out through a summer program. 3L hiring is blind and risky for them, they'd rather take blindly from experienced unemployed lawyers who show they worked at a firm for a while, and therefore are probably not a headcase.

    If hiring is going to take place, it'll be in bankruptcy or the mid to small size firms. Those firms will not be coming to your school OCI. You'll have to find them. Perhaps you can talk to a practicing lawyer who may know of these firms. Network with your alums about possible small firms. I'm sure your alums are taking calls for job inquiries, so instead I'd email the guy saying that you are more interested in knowing any routes you should look into.

    I'm not sure if I wrote this already, but Texas is the least affected state. We ride the oil prices, but if they've canceled summer programs there, its just not going to happen for many people.

    I had more information written for you but it all got deleted. But I'm willing to help if I can. If you have any questions or want any help, you can always email me. I'm just a deferred incoming associate who is starting in January. BUT, I have been keeping up with things quite a bit. I think I know a thing or two of what is going on and the best way for you to go. You can email me at pimphand24@gmail.com (did my whole post just lose credibility?)

    Anyways, just email me if you want some individual advice, its a account I use to avoid spam. I don't check it often, so if you contact me, make sure it is either today or tomorrow.

    NETWORK!

    and Good Luck :(
     
  11. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    My group doesn't have a division in Chicago, just NY and London.

    DLA Piper expanded way too fast, those laid off first years have it really tough.
     
  12. twhy77

    twhy77 Member

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    Pimp, thanks for the advice.

    Lot of reasons why a joint MBA/JD program just isn't feasible, the main one being I've got a family that's already put up with slumming it for two years.

    I'm lucky to have a lot of connections in the Dallas legal market, from 2 brothers in law, to people I've networked with through ND, my undergrad which is in town, the Thomas More Society, and various other legal channels. That said, it's really going to come down to a firm by firm basis on how work gets dispersed. If I wanted to be a transactional attorney, I wouldn't have a chance, but luckily, I'd like to litigate in some form. I've got a lot of business experience in the mortgage industry for a huge company, I'm top third of class, and leader of several clubs in the law school that actually do things.

    I'm not trying to sell you my resume or anything, just showing that there's a chance for success. I had a call back with Locke Lorde in Dallas, and they had told me that their summer class was going to be 10. When I got the rejection letter I asked what I could do to improve myself as a candidate, and they said honestly we loved you, but our class was cut to 4 people and they were the 4 we had last summer. Please stay in touch. Which I have so that's good. From what I hear they don't usually give feed back like that.

    But even if the Big Firm doesn't come calling (which I'm not betting on), I'm more than willing to go government or small to mid-size firm, of which there should be a lot of growth for because of work trickling down from the big firms (word on the street is no one wants to pay big bucks for document review at the large firms, which may or may not make a comeback).

    I'm definitely shooting for a clerkship if it comes up, and if worse comes to worse, I could go back to my old job where I'd probably be making more money than with a small to mid size firm. Let's hope it doesn't come to that though. At any rate, I'll land on my feet, and I might not be the smartest guy in the room, but I'll definitely put in the work and effort to keep my family fed.
     

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