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Good News on Unemployment

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by Pimphand24, Dec 4, 2009.

  1. Pimphand24

    Pimphand24 Member

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    Nobody see this? :confused: Its been sitting in the news for a while now. Pretty big deal.
    Lock if it has been posted. FoxNews is having trouble spinning this, but at least they show effort.

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/12/04/obamas-main-street-tour-faces-frosty-greeting/

    Obama Touts Dip in Unemployment on Jobs Tour

    President Obama seized on the report Friday showing a slight dip in the jobless rate to put an upbeat face on the economy to an audience in a Pennsylvania region where 41,000 are out of work.

    Speaking to a crowd in Allentown, Pa. -- the first stop on Obama's multi-city jobs tour -- the president touted Friday's government report showing the nation's unemployment rate dropped to 10 percent in November.

    "Overall, this is the best jobs report that we've seen since 2007," Obama said, adding that U.S. employers cut 11,000 jobs in November, the lowest monthly job loss in nearly two years and 115,000 fewer than economists predicted.

    "This is good news just in time for the season of hope," he said, "but we've got a lot more work to do before we can celebrate."

    Too many Americans have "felt the gut punch of a pink slip" and "good trends don't pay the rent," he said.

    The Labor Department's Friday report marked an improvement over October's 111,000 jobs lost. But the respite may be temporary, as many economists expect the jobless rate to keep climbing into next year as the economy struggles to generate enough jobs for the 15.4 million people out of work.

    The unemployment rate fell to 10 percent from 10.2 percent in October, where economists expected it to remain.

    If part-time workers who want full time jobs and laid off workers who have given up looking for work are included, the so-called underemployment rate also fell, to 17.2 percent from 17.5 percent in October.

    There was other positive news in the report. The average work week rose to 33.2 hours, from a record low of 33 hours. Economists expect employers will increase hours for their current workers before hiring new ones.

    The department also increased its job estimate for September, to a loss of 139,000 from 219,000, and for last month, to 111,000 from 190,000.

    Swing voters in Pennsylvania's Lehigh Valley helped Obama win the pivotal, populous state. But the region's jobless rate inched up another half percentage point in October to 9.8 percent. About 41,000 people are currently unemployed, the highest number since 1984.

    Small businesses that power the economy in the region are starved for credit and laying people off. Stimulus dollars for roads, bridges, schools and social services are mired in Washington and state bureaucracy.

    "In the last two or three months people are getting disillusioned," Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski, a Democrat, told the Wall Street Journal in advance of Obama's speech. "If he's kicking off this tour and nothing of substance comes out of it, it's gonna kill him," he said.

    Obama told Pennsylvanians Friday that he's optimistic that banks will ease lending next year and that should help businesses that want to expand and hire new workers.

    When asked what his administration could do to loosen tight credit, especially for struggling small businesses, Obama said that banks were "way too easy in terms of giving credit" -- which he said contributed to the near financial collapse. Obama said banks now "have swung in the opposite direction" and that the administration will push them to lend to credit-worthy customers. The president said "they were used to saying yes to everybody and now they're saying no to everybody."

    In a speech from Washington next Tuesday, Obama plans to unveil a proposal to "jump-start" business hiring across the country.

    The president plans to send Congress a list of ideas he supports for a new jobs bill. He will endorse sending the biggest chunk of fresh money to cash-strapped state and local governments to stem their layoffs and on expanding a program that gives people cash incentives to fix up their homes with energy-saving materials. Obama will also endorse new tax breaks for small businesses that hire workers.

    The nation's unemployment rate fell in November because the number of jobless Americans dropped by 325,000 to 15.4 million. The jobless rate is calculated from a survey of households, while the number of jobs lost or gain is calculated from a separate survey of business and government establishments. The two surveys can sometimes vary.

    The rate also dropped because fewer people are looking for work. The size of the labor force, which includes the employed and those actively searching for jobs, fell by nearly 100,000, the third straight decline. That indicates more of the unemployed are giving up on looking for work.

    The participation rate, or the percentage of the population employed or looking for work, fell to 65 percent, the lowest since the recession began. Once laid-off people stop hunting for jobs, they are no longer counted in the unemployment rate.

    The economy has now lost jobs for 23 straight months, but the small decline in November indicates the nation could begin generating jobs soon.

    Yet even as layoffs are easing, the slow pace of hiring is causing headaches for political leaders. The employment report comes a day after Obama hosted a "jobs summit" at the White House, where he told economists, business executives and union leaders that he is "open to every demonstrably good idea" to create jobs.

    Continue reading at the Wall Street Journal.

    The Wall Street Journal and The Associated Press contributed to this report.
     
  2. Pimphand24

    Pimphand24 Member

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    As you read below, Fox News asked us to see the Wall Street Journal.
    Quite a lot of information but it is comprehensive.

    Unemployment Rate Falls to 10%

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125993225142676615.html

    By LUCA DI LEO and JEFF BATER

    U.S. job losses in November posted the smallest drop since the start of the recession and the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined, a sign the labor market is finally healing as the economy recovers.

    U.S. job losses slowed sharply in November and the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 10.0%. WSJ's Sudeep Reddy talks with Dennis Berman and Evan Newmark about what this means about the labor market and the larger economy, in the News Hub.

    Nonfarm payrolls fell by just 11,000 last month, slowing down from a downwardly revised 111,000 drop seen in October, as the recovery encouraged some companies to retain workers, the Labor Department said Friday.

    It was the best showing since December 2007, when the recession began and payrolls had risen by 120,000. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected a payroll decrease of 125,000.

    The unemployment rate, calculated using a survey of households as opposed to companies, edged lower to 10% in November from 10.2%. Economists had forecast the jobless rate would remain at October's level of 10.2%, when it rose to the highest level since April 1983.

    Employment fell in construction, manufacturing, and information, while temporary help services and health care added jobs.

    In a separate report, U.S. factory orders rose for the sixth time in seven months in October, posting a 0.6% gain on the heels of stronger than previously estimated growth in September. The increase beat expectations from economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires, who were expecting factory orders would be unchanged.

    The payroll data reflect a notable improvement in the jobs market. In the prior three months, payroll job losses had averaged 135,000 a month.

    "We are one step closer today to the stabilization of the labor market," said Chris Rupkey of Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi. "The massive job cuts during the financial crisis last fall were too aggressive and firms will need to rehire staff within the next couple of months."

    Employment in the service sector -- the main source of U.S. jobs -- rose by 58,000 in November. But that was more than offset by manufacturing companies shedding 41,000 jobs and construction companies cutting 27,000.

    Health-care employment continued to rise in November, by 21,000. The industry has added 613,000 jobs since the recession began at the end of 2007.


    Despite the better-than-expected report, the jobs market has still some way to recover. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed has increased by almost eight million.

    With unemployment still at a lofty 10%, the Federal Reserve's view that interest rates must remain at a record low to bolster a soft recovery should remain unchanged. The central bank left interest rates close to zero a month ago in the face of low inflation and still-high unemployment.

    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Thursday told U.S. senators the central bank expects the unemployment rate to decline only slowly from next year as the economic recovery remains "moderate."

    President Barack Obama is concerned about the persistently high jobless rate. His administration Thursday kicked off a jobs summit, with the president promising to take "every responsible step to accelerate job creation."

    In minutes released after their Nov. 3-4 meeting, Fed officials said they expect the jobless rate to remain between 9.3% and 9.7% by this time next year, and to settle above 8% in 2011, levels usually seen in recessions.

    The U.S. economy expanded in the third quarter for the first time in more than a year, growing an annual 2.8%, but the jobs market's weakness and tight bank lending is expected to keep the recovery contained.

    Friday's report showed that average hourly earnings rose by 0.1%, or $0.01, to $18.74.

    The average workweek rose by 0.2 hour to 33.2 hours in November.
    Factory Orders Rise in October

    The U.S. valued its October factory orders at a seasonally adjusted $360.5 billion in October, the Commerce Department said Friday.

    The Commerce Department's report showed sluggish demand for durable goods, those meant to last at least three years, while showing a stronger appetite for nondurable goods.

    Durable goods orders dipped 0.6%, in line with a government estimate released last week. Meanwhile, orders for nondurable goods rose 1.6.% following an upwardly revised 1.1% climb in September.

    Factory orders for the first 10 months of the year are 20.7% below their level in 2008, showing just how much wind the recession has taken out o the manufacturing sector.

    Still, the Institute for Supply Management earlier this week reported its manufacturing index grew for the fourth consecutive month in November. However, the index came in at 53.6, below October's level of 55.7. Any level above 50 is seen as an indication of growth.

    Friday's Commerce Department report showed capital goods spending slipped 2.1% in October

    Excluding the defense sector, factory orders climbed 1.1% in the month, following a 1.5% increase in September.

    Non-defense capital goods orders, a category that includes business equipment meant to last at least a decade, crept upward by 0.7%. Orders for defense related capital goods meanwhile slid 16.7%.

    Motor vehicle orders grew 0.4%. Orders from the transportation sector rose 1.6%. Excluding the transportation sector, October factory orders were up 0.5%

    The Commerce Department data also showed manufacturers' inventories grew 0.4%.

    Unfilled orders, a sign of future demand, dipped for the 13th consecutive month, falling 0.4%.

    Shipments of all factory goods in October climbed 0.8%.

    —Meena Thiruvengadam contributed to this article.
     
  3. Air Langhi

    Air Langhi Contributing Member

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    If 8% is the best they can do the govt has failed.
     
  4. Depressio

    Depressio Contributing Member

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    Well, you're right, the world ends in 2012 so 8% is the final number EVER.
     
  5. DonkeyMagic

    DonkeyMagic Contributing Member
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    people hire during the holidays...what?!
     
  6. twhy77

    twhy77 Contributing Member

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    Now if they'd just start hiring lawyers again, I'll know I'm not wasting 3 years of my life.
     
  7. Space Ghost

    Space Ghost Contributing Member

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    Completely agreed. How can you say the recession is near its end when the predicted bottom is still 2 years off.

    The best job reports since 2007?? Comparing the bottom of the barrel to the high times is good news? Who's to say that is even the bottom. The economic analysis have been consistently wrong from the get go. Im less worried about if we have hit the bottom of the barrel than how long its going to take us to get out of it. Its going to be a real tough re election for obama if he continues to hash out this hollow hope.
     
  8. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member

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    The fastest drop in any 2-year period since 1951was a drop from 10.6 to 8.4 % from end 1982 to end of 1984. UE at 8% in two years would be the most spectacular era of net job creation in history, other than the immediate post WWII aftermath.
    UE data is seasonally adjusted to account for this.

    27,000 posts later, take a guess on what my opinion is..

    Facepalm graphic.
     
  9. BetterThanEver

    BetterThanEver Contributing Member

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    Actually, alot of that drop was due to discouraged workers that "left" the workforce, because of no jobs. It lowered their denominator.
     
  10. BetterThanEver

    BetterThanEver Contributing Member

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    Sorry, I forgot to include the stats to show that it was mostly from people getting discouraged and not being counted in the final numbers.

    http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm

    If you look at U4 not seasonally adjusted rate, which includes discouraged workers, it's unchanged from 9.9% October 2009 to 9.9% November 2009.
    The seasonal adjustments take into account holiday hiring and actually increases the rate.

    If you look at U6 not seasonally adjusted rate, which includes marginally attached and discouraged workers, the unemployment rate increased from 16.3% Oct 2009 to 16.4% Dec 2009. I consider this the true unemployment rate.

    Here is a really cool CGI animation that lays it out in a fun way.

    <object width="560" height="340"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/Ulu3SCAmeBA&hl=en_US&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/Ulu3SCAmeBA&hl=en_US&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="560" height="340"></embed></object>
     
  11. twhy77

    twhy77 Contributing Member

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    It's bad out there. I mean Notre Dame isn't T-14 or anything, but it's up there and there are a lot of people on Law Review who don't have an offer for the Summer. I hear the same from friends at Georgetown, Harvard, and U of C. Everyone's looking at non-profits right now for the Summer.

    No bueno.
     
  12. B-Bob

    B-Bob "94-year-old self-described dreamer"

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    How does one lower a worker's denominator? Is this some type of emphamism? I'm always the last to know.

    But I'll give it a go.

    "I'd really like to lower her denominator."

    I like it!
     
  13. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member

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    We have one open slot at my job - you should see some of the resumes we get. Harvard, Stanford etc, Cravath, Sullivan etc - all looking for a job which IMO isn't even that awesome.
     
  14. Air Langhi

    Air Langhi Contributing Member

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    UE = 1 - people employed/(people employed + looking for work)

    As look for work decreases UE increases.
     
  15. B-Bob

    B-Bob "94-year-old self-described dreamer"

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    I was making fun of pronoun use, Francis. I understand what a denominator is. :grin:
     
  16. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Contributing Member
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    If you read the report the increase in labor isn't just temp workers, but it's in manufacturing and auto, and defense equipment.

    Further more, people are working longer hours - that's a very positive sign because before new full-time jobs get created companies will first ramp up workers who are working less than capacity - that appears to be happening.
     
  17. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Contributing Member
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    What are you talking about - the GDP is already positive, by definition the recession already ended.
     
  18. BetterThanEver

    BetterThanEver Contributing Member

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    If worker becomes discouraged, they are not counted in the numerator or denominator. If 100k people quit looking for work but still want a job, they are not counted as part of the total labor pool(denominator). The unemployment rate would go down, not due to people finding jobs, but due to a shrinking labor pool.
     
  19. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Contributing Member
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    How many workers have become discouraged and stopped looking for work? According to republicans, aren't these the lazy people who should go away anyway?
     
  20. BetterThanEver

    BetterThanEver Contributing Member

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    ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/suppl/empsit.cpseea38.txt

     

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