DD, I don't think you fully appreciate the impact that Dalembert's 15% trade kicker has on the Rockets' ability to "flip" him. Best case scenario, assuming that Morey waits until the last possible day (February 18) to trade with Philly, Dalembert will be owed approximately $2.58M on the spot by the Rockets. Also, his cap figure (for the Rockets) will be increased for its own cap and for trade purposes. This last part is important, since it amounts to a sort of "Base Year Compensation"-type situation. The Rockets' salary figure for Dalembert will be different than the salary figure that the other team has for him. This will make subsequently trading him a little difficult for salary cap purposes. The only way that Dalembert gets involved in any Iguodala-to-the-Rockets deal is if (a) he's going to a third team as part of a 3- or 4-team deal or (b) Les Alexander decides to completely change his business philosophy and opts to pay the $15-20M in luxury taxes it would take to keep the Rockets an outside contender for the 2010-11 season. Also, I love how you've used the line that "Morey is 5 moves ahead of all of us" to justify that he will make YOUR proposed move. Meanwhile, other posters like lebigeez and myself have actually mapped out the next several possible steps and the consequences of those steps. While I disagree with lebigeez, at least he knows where he's going with his opinion. Tell that to Les Alexander, who will have a payroll of about $94M next year (including luxury tax) if he wants to keep Scola and Lowry. Personally, I'm not feeling too optimistic about being able to "get the band back together" next season under those circumstances. Man, it is hard work trying to get people here to realize what Daryl Morey has already realized and PUBLICLY stated. The Rockets are NOT taking back Samuel Dalembert's horrendous, cap-killing contract!
If I had to choose, I'd pick Tmac for Iggy/Dalembert. The reason being Dalembert's contract is better than Brand's in terms of length. We get out of Dalembert's contract after next year. Brand's very expensive contract has several years left on it, and he's injury prone (sound familiar?). It's like 2004 all over again
Yeah, i understand, i was just trying to show what it will cost to take those 2. The point about shane is kinda cloudy because i think the reason why the jazz gave up maynor is because harpring isn't playing. I also look back at how the nuggets dumped camby for nothing, but they had martin and nene making big money and brought in bridman for half the price. not to mention, the nuggets gave away some first rd picks earlier. They might deal with the devil and deal dalmbert for dampier and his partially guaranteed deal. Make no mistake, after you cleared the cap hold situation up with me, i see the possibilities both remote and feasible. I've scanned that free agent list a few times and i dont really see the 2nd tier guy taking 7 or 8 mil when a guy like hedo got 10m. The too, if we pay scola 6m and lowry 3m, what about brooks and landry the following year? I don't think lowry wants to continue being a backup and i think scola probably wants to play more also. now they wont come out and say it, but its kinda one of those known things. The same can be said for brooks and landry also.
IIRC, the trade kicker is paid once...and I believe by the team trading him. Then it is no longer in there for the next trade...... I think that is how the Mike James trade kicker worked with Minny etc. Not really sure who pays it....are you? So do I, I believe there are tons of ways to skin a cat, or get under the lux tax, it all depends upon what other moves the team is planning to make. Fine by me that he doesn't take it back, maybe they get a 3rd team involved that wants him, Sacremento perhaps. Look, I think you have good info, not doubting it, but I realize there are lots of ways to get under the cap, if you recall last year they traded Francis and a 2nd round pick +cash to get under it. DD
What? What are you even saying? You say the Rockets have cap flexibility, but that doesn't necessarily mean cap space. Huh? I know Brand has a terrible contract, and I admitted as such in my original post. However, I also pointed out how Iggy is a good enough piece to make up for that contract. The Rockets have zero cap flexibility until Yao's contract comes off the books, and even then it's pretty widely assumed Yao will be making the max or close to it, therefore even then we still wouldn't have cap space. You seem to think there's the "next wave of 2010 Free Agents" we should hold "cap flexibility" for; you're mistaken. Iguodala is a stud; he's not LeBron/Wade, but he's better than anything you could even DREAM of for McGrady. Getting him would be a coup; taking Brand's salary would limit us to using the MLE every offseason for the next 3 years, but that is entirely worth it. It's only 3 years, we won't have cap space even without him for one of those (*next year), so in reality its only 2 years of being hamstringed. And even then, if we re-sign Yao, we probably still wouldn't have any cap room. The Brand contract sucks, but it's entirely worth it for a player of Iggy's caliber. I fail to see how you can't recognize it. You didn't dispute that the trade would make our foreseeable team better, only that it would hinder our cap flexibility. Unless you can make a reasonable argument that doing this deal would make us a worse team, I really don't see your reasoning. And no, "cap flexibility" is not a valid argument against it, unless you're talking about the Rockets having the cap space for a big time FA. We can re-sign Scola/Lowry without cap space by virtue of having their bird rights, so that's not an issue even with this trade. Getting Iggy would make us a championship contender. If you have to take Brand to do it, you take Brand - he is STILL a good player, even if his averages aren't equal to his salary. Re-signing Yao will eventually kill any hope we had for cap space, so your argument for cap flexibility seems insignificant. Let me put it this way: I feel like Iguodala puts us over the top next year with Yao. I don't care about luxury tax in this scenario, and I'm willing to bet neither does Les as long as we're competing for championships.
Its not that hard oh great one. Let me simplify for you, in their respective positions, which guy would you think is the higher rated player among gm's? Back to the scola/landry thing, scola is a better rebounder than landry. landry is the better scorer. neither are good defenders even though scola's is masked by his peskiness. If you had 7m to pay one of them for 4 yrs, who would it be? For someone with such a raging opinion about everything, you sure are having woman-like indicisiveness issue
I say keep em both.....I am not going to decide, because I like having both of them on the team. Scola is a better basketball player, and if you asked which one was coveted more by GMs I would bet you get a bunch of different answers because each team has different needs. It is not black and white Leeb... DD
Yeah, I figured that you realized the facts involved with your scenario and had accepted them in your analysis. We're just going to have to agree to disagree at this point, since we both are using the same information to make opposite decisions. You bring up a good point about the Scola/Lowry vs. Landry/Brooks situation. I think that Morey almost HAS to re-sign Scola, because Landry will be an UNRESTRICTED free agent in 2011 (assuming his team option is picked up this summer, and Morey has basically said that they're going to do that). Like you say, more than one team was willing to pay Hedo Turkoglu (an over-the-hill wing player) $10M per year. Are the Rockets willing to bet that no other team will offer to ridiculously overpay for Carl Landry's services? Frankly, I think there is a very realistic possibility that the Rockets will be simply OUTBID for Landry in 2011, at which point Morey will have the very tough decision of whether or not to just let him walk. Knowing how analytical Morey is, I think he'll make that tough choice. As for Lowry, his backup status this season, combined with his restricted free agent status, puts Morey is a terrific negotiating position to lock him up long-term at a reasonable salary (vs. Lowry's on-court production). Depending on what other roster moves are made, you know that Adelman will play the best player to help the team win. (Personally, I don't know if Lowry is as hung up on being "the starter" as you think. It seems like he takes a lot of pride in being the sparkplug off the bench.) Meanwhile, when Brooks becomes a restricted free agent in 2011, there are no guarantees that some other team doesn't sign him to a huge offer sheet, well in excess of the value that Morey and the Rockets have slated for him. Like with Landry (except with Morey at least having the option to match), the Rockets may just have to let Brooks go if some team is foolish enough to offer him way too much money. So, to sum up, Morey is a collector of "assets". Being in a position to re-sign two good players who are hamstrung by restricted free agency is a key way to retain those assets. With the uncertainty of what other teams (no doubt with lesser GMs) will do in the way of contract offers for Landry and Brooks, you HAVE to keep the key players while you can.
I'm pretty sure that the team acquiring the player with the trade bonus is the one that pays. The salary cap numbers seem to imply this, since the "higher" number is used for purposes of determining the player's incoming value to the acquiring team, while the player's original salary (pre-bonus) is used by the team trading away the player. Yes, the trade kicker does not "kick in" again on a subsequent trade. But the damage has already been done regarding the effect on the player's cap number. His cap figure has been increased by the prorated trade kicker, making it difficult to match salaries. For instance, Dalembert's cap figure for the Rockets next season would be ~$14.2M, but any team acquiring him would (I think) still use his $12.9M salary figure. To be quite honest, I'm not quite sure about that last part, except I do know that Dalembert's cap figure for the Rockets would be ~$14.2M, including for luxury tax purposes. Okay, great. If that's the case, then I think Morey will acquire Lebron James this summer. As you say, there are so many moves that he can make that we just don't know about. Therefore, I will state that he will do something that seems ridiculously unlikely/impossible, and then just make a general statement about skinning cats to wash away any hope of explaining myself. Yes, if Sacramento wants to take Dalembert in exchange for Kenny Thomas's expiring contract to Houston (and, say, Sergio Rodriguez's small expiring contract to Philly to make salaries match), then fine. Let's go get Iguodala. I've said that before. But I've also said that it was unlikely, since the Kings were likely only offering Nocioni and Udrih for Dalembert. Otherwise, my guess is that a Dalembert-for-Thomas deal would have already been made by now. And there you go again. You are comparing (normal) apples to gigantic, mutant, rotten apples. Francis's $2.6M expiring contract, cash (enough to cover Francis's remaining salary and then some, since it falls well below the $3M max) and a second round pick to a team with a little bit of cap room. This is a typical "small salary dump" trade, many of which happen every season. And you are going to compare it to taking on a cap figure of $13M+ this season and $14.2M next season??? Your ability to make horrible comparisons to drive home your points never ceases to amaze me.
I can't think for you. If you can't grasp the concept that being at the salary cap, or just over is preferable to being $20 million over the cap with three max contract guys who don't put up max contract production then I don't know what to tell you. Brand and Yao are injury prone guys with long contracts after next year. Let me repeat this, loudly. ****IF ONE OF THEM GETS HURT THE ROCKETS ARE F***KED**** Like the way the Knicks, or 76'ers are now. All of the cheap assets that they used to have like Landry, Scola and Lowry wouldn't be there to pick up the slack. Finally, if Andre and Brand were such difference makers, why do the 76'ers suck? Why are they one of the bottom teams in the league?
And your understanding of the cap has clouded your thinking in that you don't see outside the numbers box. My comparisons are apt because they are just the most recent, sure the monies are not equal, but that doesn't mean it is not some sort of precedent. Whatever Bima, you are the cap expert...... I am just glad that the cap is only part of the equation. DD
Bima, is it possible that DM is thinking maybe he can swing something like Battier+Brooks in the offseason for a signed and traded FA. If that is a possible scenario, what would be the amount of cap room we could take on with the FA? Brooks+Battier+ whatever cap room we have? We could pull something like that and then still re sign Scola and Lowry and avoid big time luxury tax....
Spoken like a man who has abandoned all reason and logic! Just because I am using the salary cap to make my points doesn't make them any less true. This thing I am doing, this thing that seems so surprisingly foreign to you, is backing up my opinion with FACTS. The salary cap is a factual matter. Just because numbers and math are involved doesn't mean that you can discount my opinion backed by facts. DD, we all have opinions. Lord know you do. Why do you try to "pigeon-hole" me as some cap expert who can't think outside the box? If anything, the "box" is the prevailing theory that Andre Iguodala is the answer to all the Rockets' prayers and any way to acquire him would equate to long term success for the Rockets. In this case, I AM thinking outside the box AND giving facts to back up my points. For as great a Rockets fan as you are, it would be really nice if you could (a) back up your opinions with facts and (b) not belittle those who do. (BTW, I'm not offended or anything. This is meant to be more of a cautionary post to those who take you seriously.)
That's a possibility, of course. One of many. But it's not possible if Iguodala and Dalembert/Brand are Rockets this July.
True, but the value of our assets may lie in the grouping of them one day. Obviously this is disregarding the Philly scenario. I think Morey is planning on going for a SnT this offseason, where we still give up some value, but we score big.
Bima, if some dont understand it the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd time you say something, they probably wont the 4th, 5th, and 6th time either. Probably not worth your time explaining things over and over again like a cd or iPod stuck on repeat.
A great deal have been made over the lux tax. A pretty grey area as its something that Les have been stating that he is willing to go over for the right player. Is Iggy the right player? Let RA,DM and Les figure it out. For me he certainly is. He may not be an all-star player, but he certainly is someone that helps this team. Very good defender, scores on the open field, decent ball handler and willing passer. Back to Sam's contract. At an ugly 14m, it certainly put constraints to any team. But thankfully its only for 1 year, between him and Yao, that will be 30m coming off for the next season, so it could be 1 year of lux tax for a long term player. At the end of it all, its just a matter of Les figuring that is Yao + Iggy = championship contender = 20-30m lux tax? And hey maybe even Bima's senario of could turned out into Iggy signed Scola re-signed Lowry re-signed MLE free agent(s) LLE free agent ~40M of lux tax and championship contenders.
