I think 8-5 over these next 13 gets Houston into the playoffs; 6-7 or worse and it's over. I'm actually surprise they're this close. They'd probably need to go 10-3 or better to get back into the division race.
So you think a 2 game swing definitively gets them in or leaves them out of the playoffs despite 16 remaining games?
Well, there is a silver lining to our collapse in Arlington. Unlike last year where we had unrealistic expectations about our roster and had convinced ourselves we were playoff contenders with just a couple holes to fill going into last winter, this winter there cant be any doubt at any echelon of management that our needs are great and numerous. Hopefully leading to an aggressive approach and maybe even a little risk taking.
This is what I'm referring to when I talk about people overreacting. If Keuchel is what he was the last 2 years and McCullers is healthy, this team arguably leads the AL in wins right now. Of course, Keuchel may not be fixable and McCullers may have recurring health issues, so none of that means anything for next year - but going into this season, the team's expectations were not unrealistic or out of line. While McCullers was a bit of a wild card, no one predicted the collapse of Keuchel. The difference between where the Astros are and where they want to be is not necessarily a whole slew of players and changes. It can be as little as 1 or 2 major impact players.
At the time, there were 29 games left. I was referring to the 16 games after the next 13 games that the poster thought would define our season.
We evidently see things very differently. To me, our problems run deeper than merely Keuchel and McCullers.
How many games better do you think we'd be if Keuchel was last year's Keuchel and McCullers was healthy all or most of the year?
Also, I think it's worth noting we have the same winning % as last year right now, despite Keuchel and McCullers totally flopping. If they are doing what they were expected to, I think it's hard to argue the team hasn't taken a step forward this year. Our 1-5 on offense is as good as anyone except maybe Toronto. Our bullpen is amongst the best in baseball. Our SPs are very inconsistent due to the fact that our top 2 have failed
Yeah, I think that's about the minimum as well. That puts us on a 92 win pace, and tied for the 2nd best record in the AL with Cleveland, behind the Rangers. In solid control of WC #1, and assuming 1 or 2 of those extra wins come at the expense of the Rangers, then right in the mix for the division. At the end of the day, this team is as good as last year's despite their two aces contributing nothing.
Actually, to be fair, McCullers has been very good when healthy. He's done great in his 80 innings, but I assume the team hoped to get at least double that from him.
Right, but you'd think (again conservatively) the Astros would expect 16+ from Keuchel and 10+ from McCullers. Fister is probably giving them a few more wins than they expected, but McHugh is countering any gain there. Also, the starters collective struggles have taxed the bullpen.
Absolutely - with a on-track Keuchel and McCullers, I think they win 6 more games at a minimum and this season looks very different.
