verse, Well, we could start with the fact that Tim Duncan is getting 17fga at 45% this year. His scoring is down to Twentieth in the league. Next we could see that Nowitzki is down to 44.6% FG%. Shaq after 6 games is down to 51% versus a career 58%. Out of the leading scorers in the league, no PFs are in the top 10. Nowitzki #13, Shareer #14 and Webber #15 break the top 15 in scoring this year as PFs, and each one of those guys is not the prototype low post PF/C. The prototypes are waaay off in the scoring. Garnett is #18; Duncan is #20; Jermaine #28; Brand waay off at #33; Gasol at #40. From a historical perspective, we could also see that it took Hakeem 10 yrs before he even logged his first 20 shots/game season. Don't disrespect NBA defenses (especially now with zones) to just say it is so simple...that Yao could even get the ball enough to put up 20 decent shots. NBA defenses simply will not allow 20 shots at 66%. I consider it naive at best, and certainly insulting to the Lakers, to say that Yao can put up 20 shots at 66%, but Shaq cannot even come close to that, even before zones. Then again, maybe we can just say this doesn't prove anything, that Yao will be able to pounce NBA zones for 30 a night, despite Hakeem and Duncan needing to be in their prime to even get 20 shots per game, and Shaq unable to surpass 58% at almost exactly 20 shots/gm his whole career....just give Yao the ball,,,,he's that special.
HeyPee, I think it is unrealistic to think that he could maintain his 66% shooting, but it is not unrealistic to think that he could shoot better then 55%. He may not get 20 shots a game, but he should get as many touches as possible. Yao is the smartest BASKETBALL player on the Rockets, he seems to understand the game better then any of the others. It is no coincidence that the best ball the Rockets played in a quarter all year the ball went into Yao every time. The 3rd quarter against the Sonics where Yao was the main man making the decisions allowed the Rocks to shoot 72% from the floor...against man and zone. DaDakota PS. Anyone else think that the zone will go away, as it seems to be doing the opposite of what the league wanted? They wanted less Isolations...so why allow a zone, just create an illegal offense call....sheesh !
Name one player who has been 7'6 and been successful in this league? Just because something hasn't happened in the past doesn't mean it won't in the future. I think what some of the posters here would like to say which gets lost on those who think they are the only people being realistic is... The sky is the limit for a player with size, skill and desire, all of which Yao Ming has. Sit back and enjoy the ride, it's a good time to be a Houston Rockets Fan.
OK, so we all agree that 66% at 20 shots is ludicrous. 60% at 20 shots is dreaming. And 55% at 20 shots is way out of line with anything close to what Duncan is achieving. Maybe in the future, but not instantly like the thread author states. OK, so we can't name one player who was 7'6, so no one can argue against..."it is possible." But how many 350ib agile 7footers can you name. How many 7' power forwards with a title and a league MVP can you name. If the league MVP and most fundamentally sound player in the NBA (Duncan) can't get close to 20 shots he considers worth take with no second star, Yao is not going to get 20 decent shots. When Duncan is shooting 45% on 17shots/gm, and Shaq is so far down to 51% off his career number of 58%....I consider naive and insulting to NBA defenses to say Yao can get even 20shots at 55%. Can we throttle this even further back than 55% at 20 shots? Let's start with the fact that Yao will not even find 20 shots worth taking even if you get him the ball every trip. Don't disrespect NBA defenses like this. It is naive and insulting.
HP, You just torpedoed your own argument. Shaq has a 58% career shooting percentage. I think Yao is very capable of similar numbers. Just because other players are down in stats this year, do not think that that translates across the board. Dirk is a bad comparison because he shoots so many 3 pointers. Duncan takes a lot of 15-18 foot shots and this lowers his percentage. Yao rarely takes a shot beyond 10 feet. Similar to Shaq.... I think 55% is very attainable. Now, your point about 20 shots is right on the money. He will not get 20 shots up, nor should he, however he should get the chance to get the shots and let him CHOOSE whether to shoot or pass. DaDakota
you misintrepret me. i made that comment because so many people were quick to say what yao ming would not be able to do in the nba. that what he did in china meant nothing. that he would suck in the nba because chinese bball is comparable to junior high bball. but we see now that yao is real and yao is now. yao ming is the next dominant big man. it's as simple as getting him enough touches and giving him enough time in the league. of course he can shoot free throws...
DaDa: exactly. thank you for pointing that out. if shaq is shooting 58%, i do not find it hard to believe yao can add 2-8% to that. either way, the truth is that it really isn't about # of shots...it's # of touches. yao needs more of them...like every time down court.
Last time Yao shot over 10 shots a game, he shot 10 for 12 in Dallas game. That's a whopping 81%! No one expect that kind of number consistently, but if Yao shoot 15 shots, I expect his percentage to be around 60%. The kid is very smart in shot-selection wise. If his rockets choose to focus offense around him and play smart, it is very easily for him to achieve these numbers. He is so tall, agilefor his size, soft touch, there is no one can guard him when he shoots.
The point is 60% at 20 shots per game. No one argues that Yao can continue 60% shooting this year. It is the amount of shots, we are discussing. And Shaq shot 58% with no zones. Times are changing. Right now, Shaq is shooting 51%. Duncan is shooting 45% as a 7' power forward often claiming a 3 inch advantage. Do you think Yao can add 3 more shots per game over Duncan and 10% higher. *this year* immediately like is said in the context of this thread. insulting to NBA defenses Yao will not get 20 decent shots. If you say 13-15 shots per game at 55-60%, then that's a different story. But drop this idea of 20 decent shots.
Now you're being an ass.. I DO NOT agree that YM can not shoot at at least 60%, no matter how many shots he takes. I do agree that he doesn't need to nor should he shoot that many times in a game (unless noone else is hitting). but like DaDa keeps stating, he needs to *touch* the ball on damn near every posession.
regarding Yao's shooting percentage, i think we all agree that it is largely due to his good shot selection. so the assumption that his percentage would go down if he were taking more shots per game is based on the idea that he would be forcing some lower percentage shots. i would argue that with a higher number of touches, he will still use his good judgement on whether to shoot or pass, thus realisticly still shoot more shots at a very high percentage.
I can see Yao reach that percentage for the next season. It takes time to TEACH guards how to feed rock to Yao. It'l not happen this season due to BB IQ of Rockets guards. Yao did shot 76% in world championship games. Yao even had 21-21 in CBA final. Didn't he?!
I agree that Yao needs to touch the ball almost everytime down the court. What can it hurt? Here is my likely breakdown of what happens when Yao gets the ball: 1. Yao get double-teamed and passes out to an open man. 35% 2. Yao scores on his defender. 30% 3. Yao gets fouled by defender. 15% 4. Yao misses his shot. 10% 5. Yao turns the ball over. 5% 6. Yao scores and gets fouled. 5% That has got to be a better stratagy than having bad shooters miss from the outside all day long.
right now, 45% would make me happy!!!! we can even get that from 95% of our players! who cares what his % is right now (within reason of course....40% probably is a stretch), just get him freakin touches!!!!!
Rockets2K, Why are saying I'm being an ass? I'm stating facts. You guys are *projecting* stats in a year of a Defense...a league-wide, drastic drop off FG% and FGAs. I never said Yao can't shoot 55-60%. I said not on 20 shots...not this year. <b>Facts</b> FGAs are waaay down in the NBA Duncan's 45% is 5% down from his career average, and he's not close to 20 shots. Shaq shoots closer to the rim and gets more slams that anyone in the game, and possibly anyone in history...and he's shooting only 51% this year. 58% when zones weren't allowed. The next closest PF/C is Webber at 48% and 20 shots/gm and that is the fanciest, most active offense in the NBA...with a lot of transition buckets. After Webber, <b>there is exactly ZERO frontline players getting 20 shots</b> <font size="1"> discounting Mr 3 Antoine Walkers and his 38%.</font> Further, the are only two more PF/Cs shooting > 45% on 15 shots are Duncan (17/45%) and Jermaine (15.7/47.6%). Not Brand, not Nowitzki...Karl Malone is shooting 40.8%. <b>That's a grand total of FOUR PF/Cs getting over 15 shots at 45%.</b> <b>2001-2002</b> Compare this to last year when we had 10 PF/Cs over 45% and 15 shots. Funny thing is...only Shaq and Webber had 20 shots <b>2000-2002</b> 12 PF/Cs shot 45% at 15 shots. Again, only Webber and Shaq got 20 shots out of that group.
Blah blah blah. Let's just get Yao the rock and more shots and see how he does. I don't care if ESPN gets to announce Yao's shooting percentage at 95%. And he 't'ain't gonna get 20 shots anyway on 24-28 mpg.
20 good shots a game is a bit of a stretch, I'll give you that, especially when the zone defenses make it much harder to get the ball into the low post with out at least a double team. But from what I've seen (and I've watched every min of every game except the 4th period sunday) Yao needs to touch the ball much more than he has here recently. Only good things can happen for the other Rockets on the court if Yao demands a double or triple team to stop him. HeyP, I'd be willing to bet you a tip jar contribution that Yao leads the league in FG% if he gets enough shots to qualify.
You are not following the debate. We are talking about whether he can maintain 66% on 20 shots. In the World Championships, he averaged 9.1 shots per game, and he had two 13 and 15 shot games against Angola, to put that into perspective.
These facts are pointless. Yao is different from the rest of the guys. That's why the league is so excited about him. The guy is very smart in shot selection, very tall, very agile for his size, great soft hands. I forsee no problem for him to shoot 15 shots a game, with around 60%. The problem is that Rudy, and the rest of the guards, need to learn to: 1. Give him THE BALL! 2. Give him THE BALL wisely, not when he is surounded by two guards with hands blocking the passing lane.
