Oh it went well beyond even a few misspelled words, pgabs. This extended into flawed concepts, busted abbreviations, misspelled words, just a total lack of understanding. A legendary post.
what problem do you have with my concepts? if not don't respond if you have nothing of substance. tia
Hopefully, they are sufficiently diversified that the oil bubble bursting won't be catastrophic. Of course, while it'd be common sense, it's not guaranteed. If they do need bailing out, it'll be the taxpayer, though I'd rather just leave them with the bill.
seriously you need to calm down. just because you've made a few bucks doesn't mean you need to be a total jerk.
I believe that has already been discussed. You just need to look back and read but I am not sure if it was in this thread or another.
Sure it does. So when the bubble bursts, and T_J loses his ass, we should all line up to kick him while he's down. I call first dibs.
he will have made a **** ton of money by the time we have a bubble. this is isn't a bubble. this is a squeeze on supply, temporary lack of production, and weak dollar issue. we are stuck with this burden due to our complete unwillingness to upgrade energy producing infrastructures over the past few decades. now that we have these prices people are amazingly willing to have a refinery, nuclear power plant in their backyard, or a rig off the shores. it's pretty funny how we are finally able to get the stupidly massive amount of shale oil to flow consistently but we don't have near the refining capacity to meet the demand.
If US govt came out and said strongly that we would not attack Iran, and if Ben increase rates by say 50 basis points we could probably cut oil prices a little.
Oh heck, I'll just be the first to say this: "Move over Obama and McCain... Darryl Morey for President!"
There were tons of analysts and experts that told us why tech wasn't a bubble, the financial sector wasn't a bubble and real estate wasn't a bubble. It is laughable that there are so many people now claiming that oil is somehow magically different. Our economy is now little more than a series of bubbles. One bursts, and another is created. The financial vessels that become bubbles are what people are putting their money into as a hedge against inflation and as a safe harbor to put their money into after the previous bubble burst. Bank on it.
well my definition of a bubble is when the price has no basis in reality. the price of oil IN DOLLARS is real. you do understand that a pretty big chunk of the oil price is due to the weak dollar, correct? you do know that gas and distillate demand in the united states was up this past week, right? (edit...when they announced the EIA numbers they said demand was up for both but when i saw a news story just now it said demand was down. not sure which is correct) those other events were bubbles. just because you had idiots proclaiming they were not bubbles does not mean that no one knew it was a bubble. hell the biggest trade ever was a bet against the housing bubble and the risk assessment of the lenders. anyhow...when you have a bottleneck of production and refining capacity and a significant increase in demand you run into what we have now. my feeling is that 10 years from now we are going to be flooded with oil from all the drilling going on now. the cyclical nature of commodities isn't going to change. also...how about you prove to me that this is a bubble. just because prices are rising does not mean it is a bubble. in my eyes if you want to call these price levels bubble prices then you have to believe oil is overpriced by $80-$100/barrel. when oil cracks and falls back to $110-$120 please don't give me an "i told you so" because that is still a pretty high price. i have given you a ton of reasons in this thread why it is not one at these levels. again, i am constantly trying to keep myself aware of what is around the corner next. you have to do that if you are going to be a successful trader. i will grant you this...some of the EQUITIES in the energy space are reaching waaaay overbought levels. examples of that are clear when you see what happened to coal and steel stocks the past few days. actually if you want a good bubble going on now then all we have to look at is corn and food. the american govt's policy for corn ethanol subsidies has created the food price spikes and shortages that we see today. if we stop this dumb program then food prices crash overnight. that leads to a crack in the stocks of fertilizer and ag companies and you get to watch a massive bubble go POP! now that i think about it this would also likely lead to a drop in oil prices since you use oil to produce the fertilizer. but you aren't talk about this you are just saying it's a bubble because oil is going up....
Two things - one, a drop of 20% in oil would be pretty significant. Yes, $110 would still be high, but it would also be a significant drop. As for a bubble / weak dollar - the price of oil has risen about 45% ($100 to $145) despite the dollar being flat for the last 3-4 months. The world economy has been slowing during that whole period, so it's hard to argue that demand has shot up in these 3-4 months. So what caused that 45% increase in price? Supply shortages? The price has mostly been shooting up on news like Israel threatening to attack Iran I think that's the day it went up $8-$10, for example) - but it doesn't really go down on days without that type of news. That's suggesting that there's a huge fear premium in there. That's the type of thing that creates a bubble. If/when that fear diminishes, you'd have a huge drop.
http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2008/06/oil_prices_in_o.html http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2008/06/oil_prices_in_o.html http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2008/06/oil_prices_in_o.html
my sister works for a small but esteemed wealth management firm and in 2005 they wrote a white paper on the prospect of a housing bubble and said one was not likely. I was telling my sister there would be one based on talking to people who were "flipping houses" and other seemingly anecdotal evidence (call it a hunch, but...).They analyzed reems of data and decided there was little chance. Call it what you will.....but oil is the new bubble!!!!!
That chart shows oil spiking in all curriences over the past year. That suggests that the recent massive spike isn't all about the dollar dropping. If it was all about the dollar, the price in other currencies would have stayed relatively flat. So my question still stands - what's caused oil to spike, especially over the past 6 months, when the world economy has been slowing and thus demand has not been skyrocketing? I'm also not sure the point of linking the same article that disputes your theory three times?
This really isn't that hard to understand. Do you really think that global demand has tripled over the last three years? Of course not. There is rampant speculation about demand over the next decade or so, but it is just speculation. The weak dollar has something to do with the price, but in a sluggish economy, it is about hedging against inflation. Investors will seek a "safe" place to put their money. In the early to mid 1990s, it was tech. Right now, it's oil. Once the economy turns around, investment in other securities will increase, that money will be moved out of oil and into those securities. Bubble goes pop.
