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Game 3 Opening Line

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by el gnomo, May 22, 2015.

  1. el gnomo

    el gnomo Member

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    Golden State -1.5

    This is super shady. Given how close the last 2 games were in Oakland plus everyone knowing it's a desperation game for HOU, how can GS be a favorite??? This line is Vegas taking sides and BEGGING for people to bet on the Rockets.

    Thoughts?
     
  2. sugrlndkid

    sugrlndkid Member

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    The national scene already views this as a sweep. b/c you know 2-0 means auto ticket to finals...That being said, there is a ton of pressure on the Rockets to hold serve. Vegas hoping the Rockets crack
     
  3. Jiramisu

    Jiramisu Member

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    From a purely betting odds stand point, this seems about right to me. I have a gut feeling that the line will close around Warriors -2.0 or -2.5 actually.

    The Warriors were -10.5 and -9.5 the last 2 games. It's pretty unheard of see odds swing 9 points to the other team even if they are going to their home court.
     
  4. Jiramisu

    Jiramisu Member

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    Actually, I looked up the history, and it's already done what I expect, so I think the line will sit at -1.5 for the Warriors.

    The lines actually opened with the Rockets at -1, and the public was betting so heavy on the warriors that the line shifted to Warriors -1. Vegas doesn't take sides, they just want to make money people.

    http://www.oddsshark.com/nba/odds
     
  5. Voice of Aus

    Voice of Aus Contributing Member

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    its vegas making people believe GS are favourites. they are going to make the betting line square and average everyday gamblers won't realise this and believe GS will win.
     
  6. ivenovember

    ivenovember Member

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    If they put the line at pick 'em right now, there would be a ton of money coming in on GS since average bettors just see them as the heavily superior team so they're giving HOU points to even it a bit. It's not about what Vegas thinks will happen in the game, it's what Vegas think bettors think will happen in the game. Hope that's not confusing haha.
     
  7. el gnomo

    el gnomo Member

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    I appreciate your insight, but to think Vegas doesn't take sides is wrong. They don't do it often, but they definitely do it occasionally.
     
  8. Jiramisu

    Jiramisu Member

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    Sure, if taking a side means they can easily make money, then sure they will. But at the end of the day, the odds will shift based on 1) the public bettors and 2) the sharps
     
  9. el gnomo

    el gnomo Member

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    Public bets were on Houston in both games, and from what I've heard from non-biased casual fans, a lot think Houston should/could be up 2-0... so being an underdog at home just seems ridiculous to me.
     
  10. Jiramisu

    Jiramisu Member

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    Yeah, public bets were on Houston the first two games, so you saw it go from -10 to -9 for yesterday's game.

    And like I said, Houston actually opened as the favorite for tomorrow's game, but the bets shifted that line to Warriors -1.5 now. I don't see how this is Vegas taking a side at all. If I was a bookie, I probably would have opened the lines at Warriors -2.0 personally, but I'm no professional at deciding lines.
     
    1 person likes this.
  11. el gnomo

    el gnomo Member

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    My bad, totally misread that Houston opened the favorite. This line change could also be some steam betting.
     
  12. SooneRockStro

    SooneRockStro Member

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    Rockets just continue to be undervalued due to public perception. This is easy money folks. If you would have bet Rockets ATS last 5 games you'd be rolling right now. If you pressed your bet you'd be looking at $2,789. The Rockets ATS might cash every game this series.
     
  13. SooneRockStro

    SooneRockStro Member

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    $2,789 from an original $110 to win $100 bet.
     
  14. Kim

    Kim Contributing Member

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    Rockets are also 27.5 to 1 to win the title on my site.
     
  15. SooneRockStro

    SooneRockStro Member

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    Took Rockets to win this series at +1750. To me this is very +EV. 27.5/1 to win it all is not nearly good enough. It's at +3450 on 5 dimes. At +1750 you only need Rockets to have a 5.7% chance to win the series for it to be +EV. 6% of the time teams come back from this and ESPN gave Rockets a 7% chance based on BPI or something. So it's wildly +EV to bet it at +1750. I give the Rox a much better chance than this.
     
  16. Verbal Christ

    Verbal Christ Member

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    If you disagree with the line so much put your money where your mouth is.
     
  17. sammy

    sammy Contributing Member

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    Which site?
     
  18. PuzzledFan

    PuzzledFan Member

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    I think we're going to win both the game and the series.
     
  19. Kim

    Kim Contributing Member

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    I'm on 44sportsclub, but SooneRockStro has even better payouts for the Rockets on 5dimes.
     
  20. Angkor Wat

    Angkor Wat Member

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    Rockets have covered the last 5 games.
     

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