I wouldn't worry too much at this point - and I doubt Obama. The convention period (Biden through the GOP convention) did a few things - all negative for Obama: 1. Energized the base - this was a very real problem for the GOP, and something Romney, Pawlenty, or Lieberman weren't going to fix. Barring a major scandal or whatnot, this is the biggest positive impact of picking Palin. 2. He managed to, in his speech, effectively become a bipartisan change agent. Whether that holds, we'll see. But I think in terms of wooing the middle, that was the genius of McCain's speech, even though it was the exact opposite of the rest of the convention. Palin's speech was much more focused on exciting the base than appealing to moderates. 3. Maybe most importantly, he managed to change the narrative of the campaign where he's no longer the extreme underdog - instead, the media narrative will be a tied race, or even Obama as underdog depending on where the polls go in the next week or so. That said, this is essentially the beginning of the real campaign - let's not pretend that the election is tomorrow. There's a lot still to come: 1. Whether Palin can handle the spotlight and show issue credibility. Her likeability rating has liked peaked and will probably fall as more issue positions are known. The key for her will be that her readiness rating is low now - if she can show issue credibility, that will rise and balance things out. 2. Bounces always peak shortly after conventions and then dissipate to some extent. It's likely that today's polling is McCain's short-term high, just as Obama's peaked a few days after his convention (though there were other factors involved there with the GOP convention/VP pick being right there). If he continues to build his lead this week, that's a huge warning sign for Obama. More likely, the race stays with a McCain +2 or +3 or trends back to even. It's unlikely Obama gains a national lead in the short-term. 3. There are still several major events coming - 4 debates and a boatload of advertising that will make the summer advertising look tiny. Those are all going to produce big changes in the race - who knows what direction at this point. 4. The state polling still structurally favors Obama. There's probably a growing chance for Obama to win the election but lose the popular vote (though still pretty small). The most recent state polling (before all this craziness) put Obama at 260 electoral votes outside of a 5% margin. With about 10-15 states in play, Obama needed 9 votes while McCain needed 100+ and a virtual sweep. Basically, if Obama wins Colorado, the only way McCain can win is to put a state that's not in the 5% margin in play. At this point, we don't really know if that's possible, though Michigan was out of that range and may be coming into play. We'll know a WHOLE lot more about this in the coming week as lots of state polling presumably comes out. Up until now, the race has been ridiculously stable in terms of state-by-state results compared to 2004. That needs to change for McCain to make this a real race.
I wonder if the McCain campaign can keep up the schizophrenic message of being about change through McCain as a voice while catoring to their core values with Palin and proxies. Seems like a jedi mind trick for Republican well wishers to forget about the last 7+ years...
That's how I've been seeing it. A close popular vote, but a big win for Obama in the Electoral College. What's good for the goose and so forth! I would be surprised if Obama didn't win a plurality, however.
One result that's more and more likely is an electoral college tie - with a McCain popular vote win. I think of the current battleground states, Obama is most likely to win Colorado. If he were to do and lose all the other ones, we'd have a 269-269 tie. It probably would also mean that he lost the popular vote. In that case, Congress would decide. As it stands, the Dems have a 27-21 edge in Congressional delegations, though I believe it would be the next Congress that actually decides. So you could very well have an electoral college tie, with McCain winning the popular vote, and the Congress voting Obama. All hell would break loose.
I should have said more and more possible - it is MORE likely than it was, but still not very likely.
What are you Americans thinking? Seriously. If you don't mind inducting another Bush - especially one that's into his freaking 70's - then good luck to you. You expect a Republican who is obviously pounding out the same rhetoric that got W in office in the first place to actually change things?? Republicans farked things up. Time for sweeping change. Things might still be farked, but at least you will have had a crack at doing something to help matters.
it's not flawed. i admit the palin pick is tremendous. but we'll see if it holds up after another month with more scrutiny about HER RECORD. plus, obama is still leading in the electoral college, which is more important
Some interesting thoughts from David Plouffe. -- Obama Campaign Manager: "A Lot Of Hyperventilating About National Polls" From CBS News' John Bentley: (CHICAGO) -- With John McCain’s traveling press corps cooling their heels here as they waited for McCain to wrap up a fundraiser, Barack Obama’s campaign knew a captive audience when they saw one. The Obama campaign extended an invitation for us to drop by Obama’s campaign headquarters for a briefing by their campaign manager David Plouffe. Sitting under a charcoal sketch of the Obama family that was donated by a supporter, Plouffe said that they weren’t concerned by the bump in poll numbers that McCain has experienced after the Republican convention and the announcement of Sarah Palin as his running mate. “There’s a lot of hyperventilating about national polls,” Plouffe said, which wasn’t a surprise since both a CBS News poll and the Gallup daily tracking poll showed McCain taking the lead nationally in the presidential race. “When you look at battleground states, we feel very good about where we are.” Plouffe argued that McCain has “jettisoned the idea” that this election is about experience with selection of first term governor Sarah Palin on the ticket. McCain is now trying to make the election about change, Plouffe said, and “that’s a debate we’re happy to have.” Plouffe said the election would boil down to which campaign could appeal to undecided voters in battleground states and who could bring out the highest turnout numbers. “We have a huge ability to grow turnout,” he said. “We have a more credible path to 270 [electoral votes, the number it takes to win] than McCain does.” Both campaigns have attempted to take race out of the campaign, and Plouffe rejected the notion of a “Bradley effect” – voters telling pollsters they would vote for a black candidate, but changing their mind in the voting booth. “Swing voters that are up for grabs are not going to factor race into the equation,” he said. http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/0...C-RSSFeed&source=RSS&attr=FromTheRoad_4428588
Straight from the Obama talking points. Where do you get your information? Have you even heard McCain speak?
yes actually. he did not mention one single thing he would do differently from the bush's administration that would make our lives better, not one single thing. he has voted with bush 90% of the time and was proud of it. so how am i to expect he is different from bush? that's not a talking point if the facts are there.
What where the things he voted on 90% of the time and how did that compare to what the rest voted on? What were the 10% he did NOT vote with Bush on? I ask, because I do not know. Believe it or not, not EVERYTHING he voted with Bush on were probably not bad things.
