I think the media is overblowing this big time. There were only like 60 people who showed up to their event in Denver. The lady who started PUMA PAC is named Darragh Murphy. She's supposed to be this Hillary supporter who is so disgusted with Obama and the Democratic party, she is voting for McCain and hoping to vote for Clinton in 2012, right? Well if you go to opensecrets.org and search her name and her zip code, which you can get from her FEC form for PUMA PAC, you find that the only campaign money she has ever donated is $500 to John McCain in Feb of 2000. http://www.opensecrets.org/indivs/s...and=&all=Y&sort=N&capcode=zzq3x&submit=Submit Does that really sound like a Clinton supporter who is so upset they have decided to vote for McCain or a McCain supporter trying to play up some kind of split in the Democratic party?
It doesn't matter - I'm still voting for Obama. I made my choice based on policy differences and approach. I just feel that with the reaction we are seeing from Hillary delegates and the split at the convention, and the fact that you have Clinton delegates questioning Obama on experience and saying they will vote for McCain, I think that will doom Obama. Obama made a big mistake in not picking Clinton - I think people will look back at that for the reason he losses to McCain. It was a huge error in judgement, and frankly I wonder what on earth he was thinking in not picking Hillary. Why would you take such a huge risk of disenfranchising all of these passionate hillary voters? Had he picked Hillary - Obama would be lock to win the presidency. Now, I can't see that happening....Hillary supporters will stay home or vote for McCain, the polls show that only 47% of CLinton supporters voting for Obama, and only 50 of her 300 main fundraisers are behind Obama now. Those are eye-opening statistics. Not only will it hurt Obama financially, but it will cost him the votes he needs to win. We're going to have McCain for 8 years, I think that much is assured, which means you can kiss woman's rights agenda goodbye.
Who are these Clinton voters who will be staying home? Show me some who aren't part of a small group that could only get 60 people to show up to Denver.
Truly This is all a narrative pushed forward by republicans and pushed endlessly by the media for ratings and an interesting story. Conflict breeds drama (and ratings) If the perception becomes that Hillary and Bill somehow derailed Obama's bid for the presidency, they will be ostracized by the Democratic Party. They know this….
Why would the media want to derail his bid when they put him on the track in the first place? Boredom?
With all due respect, that's just bull**** talking points straight out of Karl Rove, 2008 vintage. Utter, complete nonsense. The overwhelming majority of the 18,000,000 who voted for Hillary Clinton in the primaries will be voting for Barack Obama in the general. In my opinion. Impeach Bush/Chneny/the Rove Android.
The polls don't back you up. Oh well, i guess we'll see what happens. Right now conventional wisdom says a big chunk of hillary supporters are going to McCain.
I find it amusing that you think the media put Obama on track for the nomination. When Obama announced his candidacy, he was a nobody, 30 points behind the front runner Hillary. But no, it's more about keeping the narrative going that there's conflict and that will doom Obama's presidency. Whether people believe it or not, the press doesn’t care who wins the presidency. They just want to have a good story.
perhaps, but regardless, i'm still voting for Obama so what use is it? Point is that these polls are saying a significant portion of hillary's voters are going to go to McCain - that's been in different polls by different sources - not partisan. So I don't know what you can say to that. I mean, it is what it is. Again, we'll only know for sure when people actually go to vote and you get the exit polling results.
Does this include Hilary supporters like Trader_Jorge? Polls have gone both ways on this. I still find this idea of a hardcore feminist Hilary lobby being anything more than a few scattered (yet increidbly vocal) fanatics willing to trash Roe v. Wade, Social Security, National Health Care for the sake of nothing other than petty spite and to take on four more years of Republicans to be more likely myth than reality.
I have to disagree with you again. If polls are notorious for anything, it is for being wrong in the August leading up to the Presidential election. If John McCain were behind by 10 points today, his campaign would be saying the same thing. As it stands, they are delighted to be this close, but they also know that the fundamentals are against them. Don't think they wouldn't trade their current position at this point in time for that the Democrats hold. They would in a NewYorker minute (sorry for the bad joke! ). I'm looking forward to Hillary's speech. It wouldn't surprise me if she gives the speech of her life and has both her supporters and Barack's on their feet and cheering. Impeach Bush.
You were being facetious but quite frankly yes - the media will generally tear down the frontrunner when he becomes the center of attenton. Obama has been doing basically nothing different in the last month than in the previous month - yet stories on him went to something like 70-something percent negative. Why? He's the frontruner. McCain meanwhile has gotten basically kid gloves from the media (40-something percent negative) despite as many or more gaffes. Why not? Because nobody cared about him. That's just the way these things go.
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I think you both underestimate the anger and hurt Hillary supporters feel, and as I was watching CNN, a hillary delegate said very emotionally that Clinton gave a speech that proved she should have had the nomination and that she might not vote for Obama because his resume is thin and he doesn't have the experience. If anything this will switch Hillary supporters from voting for McCain to not voting - still a disaster for Obama. Hillary has pounded Obama on his lack of experience, and Clinton supporters may not get over that. I think this is a very emotional issue. Hillary has done everything she can - but she can't address the fact that Obama lacks the experience based on his resume. Personally, I think it's a b.s. argument - he has the experience - the proof is that he won the nomination against hillary, the way he has run his campaign, and the skills he has demonstrated. But that's not the perception of many hillary supporters. Like I said, we can pontificate upon this endlessly, but to no avail, we simply will have to see what happens. Neither you nor I know what these Hillary supporters will eventually do - whether they will vote enough for Obama, stay home, or vote for McCain - or whatever combo. For many of them it was more about Hillary winning than for advancing policy...unfortunately, I think that's the reality. She did give a great speech, and like I said, Obama made a mistake in not picking her. My opinion of Hillary has changed, I have to tip my hat to her. Obama should have picked her. It was the only way to heal the riff. I think it might go down as one of the biggest mistakes in political history.
That's exactly what I'm talking about - there might be a few vocal fanatics (and a few J-mc ringers like Jorge) but you are talking about depth while I am talking about width.
This is one of the problems at looking at polls in August. 1. McCain vs Bush, 2000. Yes, it ended earlier, but there were a lot of bitter feelings, especially at the way McCain was attacked by the Bush team. At the end of the day, the voters came back. 2. Polls in August are meaningless. Conventions often get 10-20 pt bounces - that tells you how uncommitted people are. The vast majority - 80-90% of Hillary supporters are likely to end up on board by November. The conventions and the debates and actually following the race will have an impact. 3. The polls don't see one of the big advantages Obama has - the enthusiasm gap. Obama voters are twice as excited as McCain voters. One way to quickly change that? Energize the GOP base by bringing back two of their most hated enemies in Bill and Hillary Clinton. Yes, Hillary brings a lot of advantages, but she also brings some drawbacks that aren't reflected in the polls - they only ask "likely voter", not "how likely voter".
