Fun little predictions thread: T-mac, Ginobili, Iverson, or Shaq?

tracy's PER goes up in the playoffs

again, ginobili has a specific ROLE on that team. he helps close out games but it's more of a 3-prong attack. some nights they go to manu, others to tony or duncan.

and you don't have to say it. manu was never the number one offensive option in his NBA career.

as i have been saying, manu has been great in his role. if manu plays well, obviously it helps the spurs. but it's not like they live and die by manu's game. they've won championships when manu played well, and they also won when manu played pretty average.

they won their last championship in 06-07. manu averaged 16 points and 4 assists on 40% fg (and he struggled for quite a few games during that championship run).

however, he did play extremely well in their 04-05 run. that was easily manu's best playoff run. he has never played that well ever since.

 

PER can be inflated for high usage players. McGrady's usage has been very high in the playoffs, because the Rockets have depended on him so much to generate scoring opportunities.

The thing with Ginobili is that even when his FG% seems low, he's a very efficient scorer because he hits a lot of threes and shoots a great percentage from the free throw line.

In the prior three seasons, as a starter Ginobili has averaged 18-5-5 in 31 minutes per game, with a 60 TS%. And his team has gone 46-20 in those games. At this stage of his career, I'm not sure Ginobili can consistently play 30+ mpg. But he's still a hell of a closer, and a guy I'd love to get 25-30 mpg on the Rockets. I doubt the Spurs let him go, though.

 

that's not true. joe johnson is a high usage player and his PER in the playoffs throughout his career has been absolutely abysmal. another case is paul pierce. deron williams has also been a victim. chris paul's PER just flopped last year in the playoffs. and there are more.

the only players who have high usage ratings that have been able to maintain a high PER consistently in the playoffs (among the perimeter players) are lebron, wade, kobe, and yes, tracy mcgrady. the reason for this is b/c these guys have a great all-around game. PER takes into account everything, not just scoring or whatever.

 

There's a huge difference between a usage of 35 (where McGrady has been at recently in the playoffs) and a usage of 25 (where Johnson, Williams, Paul have roughly been at). Think of the distribution of usage amongst players in the league as a bell curve centered around 20. Lots of players in the 20-25 range. 35 usage is way out on the margins.

And I stand by what I said -- PER rewards high usage players, even when they play inefficiently. Take a close look at the formula. A guy who shoots 36% from the field and takes 40 shots a game will have a higher PER than a guy who shoots 36% from the field and take 12 shots a game, all else being equal. PER is based on how much a player contributes to his team's bottom line, but it does not try to take into account what might happen if they player used less possessions. In the case of the player shoots 36% from the field and shoots 40 times, his team would obviously be better off if he shoots less. PER doesn't reflect that.

 

Fair enough. His high PER also shows we had little production from our role players. Most of them were not ON in the past.

 

There is no way SA lets Manu go. He's one of the faces of the franchise. The only way SA lets Manu go as a FA is if Tim Duncan retires, that's it, otherwise they ride this core group to the very end.

 

that's taking it to the extremes. a high usage rating does not always equate a high (or even good) PER.

carmelo anthony's usage ratings in the playoffs has generally been b/t 29-32. his highest PER is 24 (last year), but it has been as low as 11.

paul pierce had a usage rating of 33.3 in the playoffs one year. his PER that year was 11.

allen iverson has always been a high usage player. his PER has never been above 24, and has been as low as 16 (when his usage is above 30).

yes, tracy has always had high usage ratings. but since tracy has been a star in this league, his playoff PER has NEVER been below 20. NEVER. his lowest has been his last 2 years (21.2 and 24.4, arguably his "worst" playoff series of his career statistically).

a player may get a lot of touches, but you gotta do something with it.

but you're generally right that if 2 players perform at the same level, and one touches the ball more, his PER is going to increase. but that's assuming both players play at the same level.

 

The Pierce and Anthony examples you gave are instances where the player's efficiency was so low that PER doesn't reward as much with the extra usage. But the problem persists. Even badly as they stunk with their shooting in those series, PER did not penalize them for shooting as much as they did.

 

Morey will sign either Manu, Allen, or Wade this off season.

Yao/Hayes/Andersen
Scola/Landry/Dorsey
Ariza/Battier
Manu/Buddinger/Taylor
Brooks/Lowry

 

You do realize they have no choice...he is an unrestricted Free Agent.

DD

 

And they will be over the cap until Jefferson expires.

 

http://ballhype.com/story/breaking_chris_paul_is_really_good/


http://nba.fanhouse.com/2008/09/11/nba-top-50-tracy-mcgrady-no-29/

 

Just wow. That implies nobody was higher and lower than Tmac.

 

Steve Francis is holding the door open and greeting T-Mac with "Welcome to the club"

 

I guess Grover has a word to say..... Let's see.

 

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?nota_id=1200228