Um......interesting......Lin is rated higher than Bev in defense and Bev higher in offense......something we don't know out there? (only slightly of course) And D12 and Asik actually are the same level offensively? Doubtful.
Usage has nothing to do with creating shots for others, its quite literally your shots and turnovers, to score more with lower usage is categorically a better thing. The question comes down to, is a high efficiency off the ball player better than a low to average efficiency on ball player. People can pull out things like "this board is biased towards Chandler" or Carl's equally ridiculous it's because he's attractive (are we all gay or something?), but if you for example, applied a normal distribution to ESPN's rankings since we can't be sure what they picked, you'd end up with about 160 or so people ranking Chandler higher and maybe 10 ranking Lin higher (maybe we're all ringers for ESPN, or maybe we just see/read/understand the same things), Other low to average efficiency players, like Mr got it all himself weren't rated particularly highly either. You also completely dismiss the value of how off the ball movement creates scoring opportunities, scoring opportunities without having the ball in your hands at all. There's nothing in the rules that says either player can't improve, or how much they'll improve by, these things are fluid, especially for young players, but a moderate usage, high efficiency player is just a better basketball skill set than a low to average efficiency high usage player.
I generally feel like RAPM is more useful when combined(offense and defense) than separate. But that's another discussion. However, it is worth noting that Lakers fans were complaining for the entire season how Howard was sabotaging their offense by refusing to set good picks and keep demanding the ball in the post, only to keep turning it over. And of course his FT% last season was horrible. Stats back up the fan complaints. The Lakers were +2.4 on offense when Howard was off the court. He operated at an insanely low level(for his standard) last year on offense. What is worth noting is that Daryl Morey spoke in interviews that he didn't care "which Dwight Lakers or Magic" he was getting. If he wasn't just BSing, it would imply that Rockets internal statistics put Lakers Dwight value at or over max money. Which is insane if you think about it.
Usage attempts to measure how many plays the team runs for you. If the team is running more plays for you, then by definition you are the higher 'option'. And this doesn't even account for the opportunities Lin creates for others compared to Parsons. 'Efficiency' is a bit overused, it is more informative than useful. How you make the overall team efficient is the goal, your own scoring efficiency contributes to that but only tells part of the story. Ricky Rubio can barely make a layup, and his TS% is awful, yet he is a maestro on offense because of how he runs the team. Josh Smith is the posterchild for scoring inefficiency and the ills of the long 2pt shot. Yet, his overall contributions on offense is bolstered by his elite passing skills for a PF. In the same vein, Lin creates high efficient at the rim and open 3s for his teammates. He, along with Harden, spearheaded the Rockets offensive attack last year that was built on the penetration of its guards, while everyone else played off of that being the beneficiaries. Lin's own scoring efficiency may have been lower than Parsons', but he was a bigger contributor on offense. Harden was only slightly more efficient of a scorer than Parsons, even though they aren't in the same stratosphere offensively. Viewing 'efficiency' in a vacuum is deceptive. It's great when you can cherry pick runouts, and wait for wide open corner 3s all day, but a team can't build an offense around that.
Even in his down year, Howard was 6th in the league according to RAPM. By any definition that is worthy of a max contract. The Magic Dwight was flip flopping between 1st and 2nd with Lebron year in year out. We may never see that Dwight again, but we don't need to. As far as offense, that shows one of the drawbacks of RAPM, which is it does not take 'role' and 'fit' into account. My suspicion is that Dwight's problems last year on offense had as much to do with his fit with the Lakers personnel as it did with his health. I suspect Daryl believes he can put the right players around Dwight for him to regain his offense. Play a true stretch 4 next to him and watch his offensive RAPM go right back up.
For an example of this, imagine a world in which a coach had two great centers and wanted to have them both on the court at the same time... they are both still great centers, but at least one of them is going to appear worse.
Cornbread and Parsons have different skill sets (Cornbread was a better rebounder, ball handler and passer) but it is a great analogy regarding their roles on their respective teams. My eyeball test tells me Parsons is a great fit for the Rockets and more impactful that statistics suggest.
let's follow your claim that higher usage means you are higher on the totem pole, and therefore the primary option and better player to its logical conclusion Russell Westbrook has had a higher usage than Kevin Durant for the last 3 years, therefore the team is running more plays for him, therefore by definition, he is the higher option. And this also doesn't take into account the opportunities Westbrook creates for others, being the much higher assist player. This is the logical conclusion of taking usage and then assists as a key factor. Also considering efficiency to be the less useful stat is ridiculous, since it incorporates turnovers (a stat that quite literally increases by a player making mistakes....), it is by its very nature a flawed stat, as there are at least half a dozen ways to cause a turnover that is anything but making a play, whereas it's quite rare to have something counted as a shot, that wasn't indeed a shot (you'd need the scorers to think your alley oop was actually a shot basically)
I never said that if the team is running more plays for you, then you are the better player. My whole point from the beginning was that Asik is far and away the better player compared to Parsons, and the team runs zero plays for him. So obviously that isn't my point. Being a higher option on offense doesn't mean you are a better player. I brought up Jeremy to show Parsons' role on offense. Your example of Westbrook vs Durant should tell you that the Thunder coaching staff has some soul searching to do. In fact Westbrook taking up as many possessions as he does is one of the more hotly debated topics in basketball. Scott Brooks has made a number of questionable personnel decisions in addition to this, including not playing Collison enough, and playing Perkins at all in the finals.
Offense is fun to watch but defense wins championships. In the 80's the Nuggets were often the highest scoring team and never won one. Who did win around that time was the defensively minded Pistons and they won two. Since the acquisition of Dwight most fans have been focusing on how he works with this player and that player on the offensive end of the floor. IMO his biggest impact is going to be on the defensive end. If he averages 12 points a game people will go crazy but if he is cleaning the boards, blocking shots and most importantly being a big physical presence in the middle the Rockets will be winning and that's all that matters. Last year when Asik went to the bench the Rockets defense totally fell apart. Having both Asik and Dwight will allow the team to have a big man on the floor the whole game. I would NOT trade Asik as his defense is more important than a scorer at the four. Glad to have you back big man! Also, for those that say "but he requested a trade"...winning fixes that!
I am not sure if being closest to origin is the same as being most average. I think being close to origin means he plays about average performance for the NBA. I suspect the average player is less than zero on both axes since Lebron James plays more minutes than the worst NBA player. Parsons looks to be an above median player at the very least based on distribution in your graph.
Howard had a great contribution on the offensive end so far...he draws so much attention that its easy for everybody else to score...you cant measure offensive contribution in points and assists only...those complaining about his decreased scoring have no clue about basketball...
My excitement isn't really to see them play together. It'll be more seeing us dominating the boards against teams like Miami with two of the best rebounding big men starting then coming off the bench. Remember last year we were really unstoppable with Asik on the floor protecting the rim. Now he'll be coming off the bench with Howard protecting the rim starting. We will literally shut down the paint every game.
@Jonathan_Feigen: This was McHale's 1st extended look at Howard/Asik pairing. Lot of work to do. Said he'd consider different lineups for different opponents.
perfect fit with Harden & Howard, defense, clutchness, and playoff performance salary is a bonus though
Interesting... Oh no! Let's hope that won't be the case in Houston! Maybe he was just injured and unhappy. The coaches and Kobe weren't suitable for him. McHale and Dream should help. No kidding. Well, he is elite in defense and rebounding, that's for sure. It might indicate that the salary cap makes the best players severely underpaid.
