Here are lists of the bigger free agents the next two years, I have marked the more promising ones (* or **). I think we have a much greater chance to land a superstar next year than this year, so I didn't much star high salary guys for this year. Maybe the capologists can provide further insight into our potential for a BIG siging in 2001 (read Webber as option #1, Finley as #2). A good thing for us is if we lock away Mobley this year, we are pretty set from our own end for 2 years. I am not worried about Moochie, I see no reason for him not to resign here for the min. If he doesn't (I hope he does) then we just replace him with Bobby Jackson, Anthoney Carter, or the like, also at the min. LIKELY TOP SALARY 2000 FA T. Hardaway Gill *Mercer Kukoc E. Jones A. Mason G. Hill R. Miller J. Rose McGrady Duncan D. Robinson *D. Anderson *Mo Taylor Rice *B. Grant comment: it is possible there isn't enough money to go around for all of them in the FA market, yet some want to leave their current team. Might guys like Grant, Taylor, Mercer or Anderson (the latter two are more needed if we lose CM) fall in our lap for the 2 million exemption? MIDDLE SALARY OR CHEAPER DUDES FOR 2000 **Forston A. Carter *K. Thomas **Amaechi Billups **Outlaw J. Taylor *B. Wallace *MacCulloch *J. White (this guy is a horse, nice vs Shaq) C. Whitney Coles L. Ellis A. Johnson **B. Miller C. Carr D. Ferry T. Mills **Croshere M. Jackson Perkins Smits *Ham **T. Thomas Turkan *J. Thomas H. Davis **Trent Abdul-Wahad R. Rogers **Mobley (DA or RM would help if we lose him) *Norris Hammonds B. Jackson M. Seally **J. Smith (slight stretch, may be more$$) Daniels Elie Elliott A. Johnson Eisley Hornacek A. Carr *Foyle *Closs G. Anthony Augman **R. Lewis Comment: Fortson, Croshere (Indiana has a ton of more important guys to resign), Miller, Amaechi, Outlaw, Trent, Thomas & Lewis seem the most plausible players who might add a new dimension to our team. If we resign Mobes, Norris and add one of them, I would say we had a successful offseason-- pending the draft. LIKELY TOP SALARY 2001 *Mashburn Ewing J. Jackson *Mutumbo Laettner **Finley Stockton **Webber MIDDLE SALARY AND LESS 2001 *Griffin Weatherspoon OT I. Austin M. Smith A. Williams E. Robinson H. Hawkins Purdue M. Bryant C. Mullin Bradley Pack E. Stickland Gatling Polynice D. West Murdock R. Harper Sabonis Schrempf N. Anderson Delk D. Martin *S. Pollard *Stojakovic *Willimson H. Grant My Plan: If this year we could sign a decent PF/C middle salary guy, draft well, and then add a high price guy after next year (Webber or Finley, Mash or Mutumbo as back-up plans), we can make a legit championship runs from 02-09 or so. ------------------
I checked out Davo's web cite "http://rocketdavo.tripod.com/" and it does look like we will have big time money in 2001. Maybe as much as 11-13 million. The only guy worth that much would be Webber, though I would consider signing Finley, Mutumbo or Mash for between half and 3/4 of the figure. Great info in the Davo cite, does anybody know what the maximum per year expected to be offered in 2001, could we match what Sacremento can for Webber or what the Spurs or Orlando does for Duncan if he only signs a 1 year deal next year?? For next year, it looks like the mid-level exemption 2.5 (million) is the best we can do, unless we have that left over salary thing from this years trades. 2.5 should get us in the ball park for a B or B+ grade free agent (e.g., Croshere, T. Thomas, Amaeche), not many other league teams can do any better than we can on this. If we can make an offer in the 3-4 million range with kickbacks from left over trade salary then we would be extremely competitive, maybe going after an A- grade free agent even this year (Brian Grant, Mo Taylor, Joe Smith, doubtfully McGrady though) . ------------------
I want to preface my comments with my belief that the Rocks will look to add 2 players in the offseason (which implies that Drew is moved). Our biggest need is to have Tim Duncan sign with us Our biggest need that we can realistically expect to fill is a 5, who hopefully can put time in at the 4 when Kenny's size causes us match up problems (like versus Tim Duncan, Chris Webber). This player would give the Rocks an effective three man rotation in the 4 and 5 spots. The 2001 offseason is when the Rocks will have the serious $$$ to go after a super star 4/5 like Chris Webber (who may very well want to stay with the Kings). In the upcoming offseason, the Rocks only have the middle class exception and the $4.5 M trade exception (and of course the Rocks can always a sign a player to the league minimum, where you get what you pay for in that case). Looking at the FAs that play the 4/5 and would accept a middle class exception I see only the following: Jahidi White (5 only) Todd MacCulloch (whom I'm not familiar with) Kurt Thomas (4 only) Ben Wallace (4 only) Danny Fortson (4 only) Gary Trent (4 only) Sam Perkins 4/5 (some would argue neither) John Amaechi (whom I'm not familiar with) Tim Thomas 4 Brad Miller 5 The only player I really like at of that bunch is Kurt Thomas. He has a nice J and rebounds well enough, but he only can play the 4. (Kurt Thomas would make a better third center off of the bench than Air Bullard). Tim Thomas may be a reasonable alternative to Kurt Thomas, with more scoring and less rebounding. Both Thomases are listed at 230 lbs. which is 10-15 lbs short of what most pro 4s carry. Both Thomases' stats are also not too radically different than our Carlos Rogers which implies that they are only be a mild upgrade over Carlos. The other position which the Rocks need to fill their future starting 3, since The Wiz at best is their future bench 3. Back when the Rocks had a shot at the 7th pick, they had a chance to pick a really good 3 from the draft, but those days are gone. At the 11th pick, their choices will be a good 3 or a servicable 4/5. Either of which would be a long shot at becoming a star in the league. I don't see much difference in drafting one position over the other at this point. That being the case, the Rocks may look at picking up a 3 FA and drafting a 4/5 project. From the 3 FAs, Rashard Lewis is the best bet to sign for the middle class exception. Seattle likes Lewis and has invested two years in him, so I would not be surprised to see them re-sign him. (Besides, I think Lewis is a restricted FA which would allow Seattle to match our midlle class offer.) The Rocks also have a $4.5M trade exception and need to move Drew. Here we would look for a team that wants Drew and has a good player that will not be re-signed. A good example of this type of player would be Mo Tayler, who want out of a Clipper uni. I would not be surpised if Gary Trent, Danny Fortson, or Joe Smith do not re-sign with their current teams. None of these players deserve the money and length of contract that they are requesting. Also these player are just slightly better versions of a player we already have. Trent and Fortson are short 4s like Kenny. Smith is a tall but too thin 4 like Carlos. That leaves Mo Taylor who is asking for the maximum which is easily more money than the Rockets trade exception plus Drew. Besides, Mo and his agent are the only two people on this planet who think he is worth that much. In conclusion, I don't see a clear choice on who the Rocks should succesfully go after in the FA market. Re-signing Tmass to the league minimum may be the big FA move the Rocks need to make, since he is a legit 4/5. The Rocks could then make an middle class, long shot offer to Rashard Lewis and draft according to whether Lewis signs. ------------------
I could be wrong, but I think the Magic (room for 2), Bulls and maybe 1 or 2 other teams can offer FAs more than the middle class exemption. Thus at most, 5 or 6 players will get the max dough, unless they want to resign with their team. With Duncan, Hill, McGrady, Jones, & Rose out there, no one is going to be all excited to sign Mo, or Brain Grant for that matter, at the max. Thus I am not sure the best deal for these guys wouldn't be with us, i.e., a sign in trade for around 4 or 5 mill per year--which is about what I think either is worth anyway. They and their agent might not like it, but it might be the best they can do if they want to leave, at least I am hoping as much. I do like the framework you suggest in focusing on eliminating redundancy--in other words thinking about whether the addition improves us in terms of potential and/or a skill above & beyond our curent front-line people, especially in reference to KT, Los & Cato. Note, I doubt we will find a better defensive PF/C than Cato, but we might be able to find one stronger and/or with better low post moves--which again provides another dimesion to the team. I am not that impressed with Kurt Thomas. I think Kenny Thomas is younger and equivalent already in skill to Kurt. Sticking with the Thomas'es, another one (Tim) has a much higher ceiling in my opinion, and I would rather go after Croshere as well (Indiana has so many guys to sign, they might not get around to him). Likewise guys who can play some center--Amaechi, Miller, White, MaCoullach--have more appeal as well. As for SF/PF swing guys, like you said we have to consider whether they will be better than Los. T. Thomas, Lewis & Croshere are all much younger, and the latter is already better than him, so I think they would be reasonable guys to consider. [This message has been edited by sir scarvajal (edited April 12, 2000).]
The only reason I like Kurt over Kenny is his D. I haven't been able to see much of Kurt, but he looks like a pretty solid, full-sized 4: can hit the jumper and can post up well enough. Someone questioned his mobility, but he seems to keep up with the Knicks and they run a lot. He also is gonna get his share of rebounds, which a lot of the 4's who provide the offense don't. You guys probably know more about him than me, but he's the guy that stands out the most to me from the free agent crop unless we can B. Grant at that bargain price that has been mentioned which I think is doubtful. Also, another poster pointed out to me on here that we can't offer anything more that $1 million to a FA, b/c the rest of the money has to go to Cat. He sounded like he knows what he's talking about. He pointed it out to me in the thread entitled "Bring in another center with the $2 M exception" from a few weeks ago. FYI ------------------
Oh, I thought the early Bird we could use on Mobley is independent on the 2.5 middle class exemption. You could very well be right though. If so then the big move will be trying to trade and use the 4.5 salary. With that much salary I would want to do better than Kurt Thomas--who I think is reasonable (though I prefer others I have dicussed) if we have a 2.5 slot in addition to Mobes. ------------------
Oakdogg, I had done quite a bit of research on the Mobley question. I had initially concluded that the most we could offer was the $2.25 million exception, and may have told you as much. However, a clause in the Early Bird rules has since been pointed out to me that makes that actually the better option, though it still pays under $3 million (if memory serves). So, no, Mobley won't take our exception as far as I can tell. We should be able to use it on an FA. I'm sorry of I was the one who misled you. ------------------
From Juan's reasoning, the Rocks 1. can sign Mobley via Early Bird rule 2. have a $4.5 M trade exception 2. have a middle class exception, $2.25 M 3. can sign FAs to league minimum contracts 4. have our draft pick 5. maybe have Detroit and/or Orlando's pick(s) The Rockets for next year will include the following signed players: 1 Francis, Drew 2 Anderson 3 Williams, Bullard 4 Thomas, Rogers 5 Cato, Dream The Rocks will hopefully re-sign Mobley, which will make 10 players. If they can trade Drew, I expect the Rocks re-sign Moochie, which leave us still at 10. But wait, the Rockets are likely to get another player in the Drew trade, which would buump the count to 11 (unless said player is a backup point guard like Derek Anderson, then the count stays at 10 and Moochie is shown the door). We definitely need to reserve a roster space for our first round pick so the Rockets may be done after the Drew trade and the draft Here what I think the Rockets should do: 1. Sign Mobley via Early Birl rules 2. trade Drew plus trade exception for Derek Anderson which would leave a roster of 1 Francis, DAnderson 2 Anderson, Mobley 3 Williams, Bullard 4 Thomas, Rogers 5 Cato, Dream which is 10 players. The Rocks draft pick will be player 11. If the Rocks get additional draft pick(s) from Orlando or Detroit, that complicates matters. If we get two extra first round picks with guaranteed contracts, those draftees will fill out the 12 man roster plus one IR spot , barring any more trades of the 2 for 1 nature. If we get only one extra first round pick, the draftee would be player 12. I don't think Orlando really wants their last first round pick, since two is better than three guaranteed rookie contracts for one year, especially in a year with a not so deep draft. If we don't get any more picks, the Rocks can look to sign a FA to the middle class exception. That player would be determined after the draft. I think the most like scenario will be that the Rocks get the 15th pick from Orlando. The final year 2000-2001 Rocket roster would look like: 1 Francis, DAnderson 2 Anderson, Mobley 3 Williams, Bullard, Draftee#1 4 Thomas, Rogers 5 Cato, Dream, Draftee#2 Drew really messes things up [This message has been edited by No Worries (edited April 12, 2000).]
No Worries, I like your plan. Though I don't know if DA and Mobes would both be willing to both be on the bench, especially as they are similar tweeners. That would just leave a completely loaded back-court with more modest front court people. Plus, while Moochie clearly can't hold a candle to DA in terms of talent, with Francis chewing up all but 10 of the MPG at the one, he is much easier to keep happy in this role. I suggest we use the 4.5 salary and the Drew bait to try to get Brian Grant, Mo Taylor, Croshere, or Amaeche--a starter for us in the 4 or 5 (for Amaechi we can move Cato to the 4). Then we use our 2.5 mil on a defensive specialist (Bo Outlaw) or younger project guy (T. Thomas). 1 Francis, Norris 2 Anderson, Mobley 3 Williams, Outlaw(?), Draftee#1 or Bullard 4 Taylor(?), Kenny Thomas, Rogers 5 Cato, Dream, Rogers or Draftee#2 Or we don't even use our trade kickback next year and save up for a bid for Webber + a defensive 3 in 01. Then we have a championship line-up for 2001 of: 1 Francis, Norris 2 Anderson, Mobley 3 Williams, Outlaw, Draftee#1 or Bullard 4 Webber, Thomas, Outlaw, Rogers 5 Cato, Webber, Draftee#2, Rogers ------------------
That's some cool stuff you all have gathered on the upcoming class of free agents and taller draft picks. No way DA signs to be Moochie's replacement. That's a little bit way out. I'm not really sure we need that much depth at all. I like what we have, but I see three positions (as you guys have noticed too) that I would like to see us fill either thru the draft or FA in the next couple years long-term PF starter if Kenny isn't the answer: I sort of like Kurt Thomas or Jerome Moiso for that. somebody who's strong on D and at least a threat on O, who also rebounds long-term SF starter: I'm sure we could find someone in this year's draft, maybe Darius Miles if we're really, really lucky, maybe Mike Miller, SF's supposed to be a deep position in this year's draft backup center: hopefully someone who can run the floor and block shots (geez, that's all Cato does anyway). either one of the 2nd rounders we picked up last year or maybe our second rounder this year. ideas: Mamadou N'diaye, Jabari Smith, or even Jelani McCoy as a FA Francis/ Moochie Anderson/ Mobley Miles?/ Anderson Kurt Thomas?/ Kenny Thomas Cato/ N'diaye That looks like a pretty solid team. It'd look a lot better with Tim Duncan, but this seems a little more realistic, and everybody should be somewhat satisfied with their minutes. ------------------ [This message has been edited by oakdogg (edited April 13, 2000).]
Here's a point to keep in mind when you're talking about resigning Mobley using early Bird rights. All early Bird contracts have to be for a minumum of two years. Whether or not Mobley would sign a two year Early Bird deal depends on how much Cuttino thinks that he's worth. If he thinks he's worth something in the neighborhood of the average salary, then he'd probably sign an Early Bird deal. But, if he's trying to break the bank, then he's most likely not going to want to wait an extra year to get the big bucks. ------------------ [This message has been edited by aelliott (edited April 13, 2000).]
Yall are right that DAnderson for Drew sign-and-trade would not be a good deal for him. There are not enough extra minutes in 1 and 2 spots to keep him happy. But if Mobley does not re-sign ... On his weekly talk show last night, Rudy said that originally in the Pippen Portland deal that Brian Grant was the player that the Rocks wanted the most. Rudy also speculated that a player plus the $4.5M trade exception would not be enough $$$ to land Grant. The whole reason I focused on the Drew / DAnderson trade was that it allowed the Rocks to not re-sign Mooch and thus free up a roster spot for the potential Orlando pick or for the signing of a middle class exception. The Rocks' FA offseason FA aquisition(s) may be limited to the Drew plus trade exception for a sign-and-trade FA. To make this deal, another team has actually got to want Drew and his final two years of his rookie contract. For the trade, the FA must take a contract worth in the $5.5M to $6M range (or less), plus or minus 15%. Yet another consideration is that our wimpy trade offer will have to be the best offer on the table. The question really is which teams with FA that the Rocks want would actually want Drew. I am betting not a lot of teams (reguardless of having desirable FAs) would want Drew. Does anyone know if it is permissble to havea three way trade using a trade exception and a sign-and-trade FA??? If permitted, a three way could look like this: Houston: Drew plus exception to Toronto Toronto: McGrady to Portland Portland: Grant to Houston which is very unlikely since both Grant and McGrady want more than $6M. ------------------
Brian Grant will most likely NOT exercise his player option. He is making $9 million a year for a contender. I doubt that he will fetch more on the open market. Even if he could, it would be with a scrub team like the Bulls. If I were him, I'd stick with Portland with loads of money and a legitimate chance at a title. ------------------
But I am not sure Brian Grant is happy in Portland. Perhaps he wants out (don't have inside info, but he hasn't been a high minute guy this season and I don't know if he likes that). The Brian Grant of this year certainly isn't worth 9 million per year and I don't think he will get it. I would probably take a chance with him (or Mo Taylor) for 3 or so years at up to maybe 7 million per year though. How about we offered a 7 mil contract slot (with our trade exemption + the players) while sending Walt + Drew + a our 2nd 1st rounder to the Clippers, then they can send us Mo directly, or send Mo to the Blazers and the Blazers can send us Grant. The only option Mo will have to play for a good team (other than Orlando who are fishing bigger than him anyway) is to do a sign and trade for less than the max he wants. Similar deal with Grant, if he wants out of Portland and wants to play for a good team, we are one of his best bets. Likewise the Bulls have dough, but they don't want a player who can only play the 4, they have that player only better already. ------------------
I dont know about your reasoning guys. im sorry but webber wont sign with us. he is going to go back to sacremento where he is surrounded by young players and a team taht will only get better. i really doubt he will come to houston. ditto for brian grant unless he wants more minutes. lewis.. MAYBE if his pride doesnt get in the way. ------------------ --TEX
We're younger than the Kings. Just because Jason Williams is flashy doesn't mean he's going to be a great PG. Anderson and Divac are old or getting old. I like the Rockets' future much better right now. ------------------ Get your proper swirve on...visit www.swirve.com (coming in late May, for now visit www.eesite.com)
RM95: I tend to think Webber (every thing else being equal) would stay with Williams. My reasoning is simple - Williams always takes care of his teammates. He takes some crazy, ill-advised shots, but in the set offense he takes care of his teammates. He does take some chances on his passes, but often times his passes lead to easy points. Obviously if he knew he could leave the Kings and get a ring, he may do that, but I think he and Williams will be a tandem for a long time. ------------------
Sacremento right now is really all Webber + smoke & mirrors. Valde and Nick are on their last legs, Williams, Pedjra (sp?), Barry, Williamson, Pollard, Funderburk, Delk, Martin are all medicore at their position or worse--with JW and PS the only with really any potential to get better. Webber and 8-9 average guys makes a good team, but not a championship caliber team. We will see after 2 more years of not winning a playoff series how much Chris Webber likes staying there. They only thing going for him staying is they supposedly have great fans and nice owners. But after a couple more disspointing seasons, and the realization he is still in the city he said he would never stay in when he intially arrived, don't think Webber won't be tempted to leave. Plus you have to consider who he could play with. JW might get better, but he already isn't even in the same league as Stevie--in Stevie's rookie year no less. PS is a good shooter, but he isn't to be confused with Shandon or Mobes in terms of overall basketball ability or effectiveness. Cato and KT are younger interior players that Saremento doesn't have equivalent talent with either, and we have quite few more recent draft picks to get solidified even more. If Webber wants a ring, his best bet would be to sign with us in 2001-- a line-up of Francis, Mobley, Anderson, Webber and Cato (for defense) could be the best in the league for a 5-7 year stretch. He will not find that in Sac-town, and he could get the same money here. I don't see this as far fetched at all, a lot less far fetched than getting Duncan (and I think Webber might be his equal right now), Hill, Jones or maybe even McGrady. It's all timing, and in 2001 our timing for Webber should be perfect. ------------------
Webber two previous teams were Golden State and Washington, teams perpetually experiencing disspointing seasons. It is all relative. While he certainly hated Sacramento when he first got there, he genuinely loves being there now. You are right about The Kings limitations as a team, but they should make the playoffs and play exciting (if not winning-it-all) basketball for the next 3 to 4 years. I expect Webber sees the same and signs a 3/4 year contract extension before becoming a FA. But you never know with Webber ... Off to the game and this time I meant it! ------------------
Sir Scarv, you give a glowing endorsement of the team you've been wanting to see tank until yesterday. Webber's a great player, but Duncan's equal? No way! Duncan's the best big man since Hakeem, IMO. Better than Shaq was at this stage (better than Shaq now, you could argue)...keep in mind this is only Duncan's 3rd year, and he had his way with the Lakers in his 2nd season (4-0 baybee!). ------------------
