Possessions. A typical game has 100 possessions per team. But nobody plays all 100 … more like 75 for stars. So, just like per-36 is trying to normalize counting stats to common amounts of minutes that the stars play per game, per-75 is similarly normalizing based on amount of possessions per game. The idea is normalizing based on possessions (rather than minutes) arguably eliminates Pace as a difference maker.
This article predicts FVV's extension at 4 years 100 mil. That seems a little low to me, though I'd be really happy with that. I'd actually be fine with something like 4 years 120 mil if the team is really clicking this season. https://spacecityscoop.com/predicting-houston-rockets-fred-vanvleet-next-contract
Comparing bench players with starters using per-minute or per-possession stats often produces this kind of weird results.
In retrospect, I think I would lean towards offering FVV a three year extension at most rather than four. The reason being is a potential Sheppard extension would kick in during the 2028-29 season. There's a decent chance we'll have 3 - 4 of our current prospects under large contracts at that time, so FVV's money coming off is important. Or, better yet, make the fourth year a team option, which would give us some flexibility depending on Sheppard's development.
I like the team option for the 4th year, but his cap would probably be less than 17% of the cap that season assuming Green doesn't get a max deal. Edit: or under 8% of the cap if the 4 years, $100M is legit.
4 years 100m seems low to me, though it would be excellent. I think 4 years 120m with a 4th year team option is more realistic. We'll see.
So less than 13% of the cap in Reed's first year of the rookie extension for 4 years,$120M declining by 8% (I think 8% is the max a contract can decline each season) each year.
Yeah. But let's say the following happens... Green signs a max (25%). Sengun signs a max (25%). Amen signs a max (25%). Bari or Eason sign a large, non-max (15%). Add in FVV's 13% and things get dicey fast.
The 13% isn't the problem. It would be in the year that Jabari and Tari's extensions kick in assuming Green gets a maximum extension. Without Green getting the max or close to it, the Rockets basically can keep FVV and 7 other rotation players without having to make a substantial decision about how to keep guys together until at least when Cam is eligible to get paid more (though likely until Sheppard is eligible for money, but it likely would be another contract causing problems and not the 13%).
Well, FVV's floor is higher than Green's realistic upside. Green has had 3 years to show his upside for more than a 10 game stretch. Green is younger so there is still a chance he could become a better player. If Reed can't even get one regular season game to prove himself before you have passed judgement on him, Green's upside must already be gone and he is what he is. Granted, this is crazy, but keeping a younger player over FVV based on 10 games or so seems crazy too. Rockets should be trying their hardest to keep FVV. Only if Green shows over a larger sample that he's going to be better should the Rockets consider letting FVV go. Even then, Rockets would probably look at others before FVV.
I wouldn't say FVV's floor is higher than Green's realistic upside. The 10-game stretch and some other much shorter stretches over the past 3 years showed that he had the talent to play like that. So that's supposed to be his ceiling. How likely he will reach that ceiling (i.e. playing consistently at that level) is really difficult to predict. That's why Jalen is such an enigmatic guy with such a wide range of expectations. Of course, the longer he is in the league, the more predictable the outcome. I guess the 4-year rookie contract is for that purpose.
FVV never won player of the week. Thats Green's upside, one of the best players in the league. I have not passed judgement on Sheppard but if you are talking about upside being 6'1.75 with trex arms his upside is naturally lower than Jalen Green. Also thats a false comparison so why would we even need to decide between Green and Sheppard? Sheppard is still on a rookie scale contract. My point is if between Jalen Green and FVV then FVV has to go because Jalen has higher upside. FVV is already 30 he wont get better than he already is and is just gonna get worse. Jalen just 23 has 7 more years before he reaches his peak. Why are you making it between Jalen and Sheppard when the Rox can afford these two players? The only expensive players are Sengun, Jalen, FVV and Brooks.
FVV is already one of the best players of the NBA and his upside is NBA Champ. I don't care if Green is better than FVV in 7 years if none of those years is better than FVV is now and likely to be in the next few years. I want the likely better player over a good many years. Unrealsitic upside doesn't matter for guys signing at or around the max. A player needs more than a player of the week or 10 amazing games to show they can consistently play well enough to have their realistic upside to be better than FVV. I am making it about Reed, FVV, and Green because you made it abouit upside. Reed has more upside than Green. Signing Green to a max will impact Reed as Reed has the upside to be a max player. Also, FVV won't be that expensive of a contract when Reed gets extended assuming FVV signs a declining deal.
FVV was just a role player on that champ ring he was like the backup to Kyle Lowry. NBA champ is a team accomplishment, Player of the week is an individual accomplishment. learn the difference. Whats the proof Sheppard has higher upside than Green? Sheppard hasnt even played an NBA game. Sheppard is 6'1.75 with trex arms he will get hunted on defense how is that higher upside than Green? You said a player needs to have more than 10 good games but Sheppard doesnt even. have 1 good game yet how is his upside better than Green and how is he a max player?
