Great posts by Nike and HP, I am completely convinced that this trade would be a blessing for the rockets.
I understand that HP. However, does that 7th year take away from the desire to win?? I.E., is there more incentive for him to sign with us and get that 7th year, yet, possibly not be in a position to win a ring for 2-4 years or is there more incentive for him to do without a 7th year and sign with S.A.??? To me, Id rather have a chance at a ring than that 7th year.
codell, but codell, O'Neal and Duncan would conflict on the court like O'Neal and Yao would, according to DVauthrin's reasoning. (just a friendly jab at ya DVauthrin) Codell, your reasoning that a SnT would not involve SA is flawed, as it implies O'Neal does not care about the extra $15m. $15,000,000!! If SA is his top choice, they have the cap room to make a SnT all the more possible. imo, a SnT involving SA is more likely than any other team. I'm just trying to be accurate to say why SnTs happen. O'Neal's agent will be working all the SnT angles he can. Even if it is only Malik Rose for O'Neal, his agent likely will insist on a SnT with SA to land that extra $15m. O'Neal's agent has all the chips, and SA would be at his mercy every bit as much as Indiana. Now, when Indiana balks at Rose for O'Neal, then it boils down to the cash, and his agent will be pitting that $15m at the Spurs and saying...if you want O'Neal you are going to have to a SnT happen to get him that $15m. Then he could start working a SnT with Dallas, Minn, Detroit as well as the Rockets...for all we know. Why wouldn't Larry Brown trade the #2 for O'Neal with cap filler? I think you are overrating SA's position, and underrating the ability of an agent to force SnTs under this max contract situations. Whether that would be a bluff or not, it borders on irresponsible for his agent to not use that negotiating leverage. SnT is the best way to go for O'Neal, whether it is SA or not.
I completely agree S/T is the way to go for all major free agents. Who was the last major free agent to change teams without using S/T? Maybe McDyess to Denver? I remember Gugliotta declined to do a S/T, but that was more out of spite, iirc. Thinking of it, I believe Brian Grant signed outright in Miami. Hill left in a S/T. So did McGrady. So did Pippen. So did Eddie Jones. I'd make this deal for sure. Imagine what Van Gundy could do with our defense with 7-5 of Yao, and the freakish length and mobility of Jermaine O'Neal. We'd probably have to play with the surrounding players to find more shooters, but an O'Neal/Yao combo leads to dominance, especially in the West. O'Neal is actually a few months YOUNGER than Francis. Odds of it happening though, are not very likely.
HP, But is JO going to insist on a 7th year before he considers signing with another team??? I don't think thats going to make or break a deal. You are right, in that it would be smart to get that extra year and money if possibly. However, I still think that if it comes down to signing free and clear with a team like SA versus doing a S&T with us, then a team like SA could win out (because they are the defending champs and will be favored next year) despite not being able to offer a 7th year. Again, whats more important to JO, competing for a ring, NEXT YEAR or slightly more financial security over the long haul???
you're right, most of them were under the previous CBA. I believe the ability to sign a 7th yr with higher raises via Bird Rights, only, is new to the new CBA. So, I'd count all major free agents who used Bird rights, whether it coincided with a trade (SnT) or not. It makes it even more clear how important that 7th yr and the higher raises are. Count Lewis...who seriously worked the SnT angle, but chose to stay put with a 7yr contract. Bibby also signed a 7-yr deal. And I'd even count LaFrentz, which proved a silly contract, but most likely done for that 7th year.
codell, The point we're trying to make is that a sign n trade is preffered. Obviously, San Antonio is a better choice. But Duncan has balked at the idea of acquiring a big man, and he's also balked at the idea of playing the 5. O'neal has also said that he is NOT a 5. Besides, both O'eal and Ming have good range on their J, and they can go to the post. I think they can co-exist. The only trouble is, what's Indiana's cap situation? Are they able to pursue anyone if they just let O'Neal walk, or are they better off signing and trading, to get soemthing back. Getting a superstar in Steve Francis back would do wonders for Indiana. They'd also love to replace Tinsley. Ming O'Neal Posey/Rice Mobley Tinsley I think Mobley would begin to fit in with this team nicely with Tinsley replacing Steve. With Mo and Steve gone, Mobley gets to be the 3rd option for sure. Also, Tinsley could concentrate WAY more on passing with such a talented scoring team, and our fastbreak would be TONS better with O'Neal and Ming creating so many opportunities off blocks.
Definitely... Jermaine O'Neal. I don't know if he likes Houston... But he has played with Brad Miller. I think he would do good with Yao. VERY GOOD. Yao/Cato O'Neal/Taylor/Morris Posey/Nachbar/Morris/Rice Mobley/Posey/Hawkins Tinsley/Moochie AND YES. I'd rather try to find a way to get Brand instead and also keep Stevie and Yao. So Yes. I'd do it.
What makes you think SA will be favored without a center? What if they are left taking Kandi. Both Webber and Nowitzki went down, and will only be better teams next year. vastly better teams than what they showed in these playoffs. Further, if Jermaine goes to NJ, Dallas, or Detroit, I'd favor them over SA with Kandi. I seriously doubt Jermaine will consider the Spurs over other teams solely based on Duncan....especially at the expense of losing $15m. As for choosing the Rockets, all you are saying is superstars sign with the best teams, whenever possible. I don't think that is necessarily true with such young superstars. Just like Duncan not wanting to play C, playing with Yao could be very attractive to someone like Jermaine. Jermaine may very well consider the extra $15m and a chance to play PF over being Duncan's center. Young stars don't always go with the easiest route to a ring. Many of them expect to win it in their career as long as they have the right situation....and if Jermaine would expect to win it with both Duncan and Yao, who's to say the money and position played don't factor it.
heypartner- That would seem right. My recollection is that Phoenix refused a sign and trade with McDyess, which is why he signed outright. In general, practically every player who has signed above the MLE with a new team under the new CBA has gone via sign and trade. From Hill, TMac, Pippen, Jones, even guys like Lamond Murray (to CLE) and Derek Anderson (Portland) BTW, In the scenario that Jermaine O'Neal would want to come to Houston to play with Yao, Indiana would JUMP at that offer. Sign and trades don't generally give back anything close to equal return because the player usually threaten to sign with other teams, but Indiana would be getting a 2 time all star entering his prime. That of course begs the bigger question, would Jermaine O'Neal be as interested in the Rockets without Steve Francis? This will be an interesting case if O'Neal gets courted by the Spurs- he is the Pacers' franchise, and with the money they've got tied up in Mercer, Harrington, Bender, Croshere, and Artest, they aren't in a good enough cap situation, are in the East, and aren't an attractive enough city to be able to go and get someone else, especially with Brad Miller also in free agency. Maybe Harrington can become a starting 4, but they don't really have a franchise player like Toronto did with Carter in the TMac case (plus TMac wasn't TMac yet, and didn't get along with Carter). Detroit was in a good cap situation, and wasn't going anywhere with Hill. They lucked out with Ben Wallace becoming a stud, and needed to retool. The Bulls were going in the toilet anyhow, and there gesture to Pippen was just repayment for a decade of underpaying him (or maybe overpaying him, by letting him ride MJ's coattails). If I'm the Pacers, I demand at least Tony Parker in a sign and trade, and then see what I can do as far as trades go with Parker or Tinsley attached with either Bender or Harrington or even Artest. If you're the Spurs, with a pretty mediocre backcourt as it is, do you lose your 21 year old PG, who was the team's #2 scorer? Deviating slightly, this is what makes Elton Brand seem like an interesting case. No one has any clue if the Clippers are going to pay him, but based on their history, the odds of the Clippers playing ball and getting him more money in a S/T is unlikely, because the Clippers would have no incentive to take on a contract they don't have to. They refused it with Mo Taylor, as well as Derek Anderson, but were receptive to accepting Derek Anderson in the Lamond Murray deal.
NIKEstrad--I'm in the minority, because everyone still expects Dumars to take Darko, but I kinda expect Larry Brown to lobby for trading the #2 for an established star. I don't see him waiting for an 18yr old. From all we know, Brown chose Detroit based on discussions of what they intended to do with the #2. In that respect, Detroit looks like a major player in trades. (Would you be surprised to see the Celtics offer up Pierce for Darko in a multiplayer blockbuster?). Now consider O'Neal. With O'Neal and Wallace, Larry Brown's got a helluva defense there. And with O'Neal drawing defenses, Taysun Prince would be primed for an explosion next year. That team would be an instant threat to make it to the finals. I think Indiana would be equally interested in landing Darko, and Prince provides them with throw-ins like Corliss and Cliffy to sweeten the deal.
re: san antonio & jermaine o'neal... there are some issues that need to be discussed if we're going to talk about o'neal going to s.a.: #1) why is san antonio stuck on signing j-kidd...if o'neal is a "natural fit" to replace a retiring david robinson...especially considering they already have tony parker? one reason could be the $$ necessary. another reason might be because o'neal's defense may not be up to pop's "level". another reason might be... #2) elton brand. brand, imo, is a much more natural fit for san antonio. brand does NOT need the ball to be succesful, rebounds exceptionally well, is a good kid, and can block shots with the best of 'em. add on the fact that san antonio knows they can offer brand a little less than the MAX and the clippers will not match it....whereas with o'neal it will definitely require a max contract. also, add on that brand is arguably a better post defender than j-oneal because of his strength. brand is the much more logical choice. #3) does o'neal want to come in and play 2nd fiddle to tim duncan? in houston, o'neal would play 2nd fiddle to yao ming popularity wise, but on the court it is much, much closer. offensively, as HP pointed out, they could play the high/low game very effectively. defensively, we'd be the best club in the nba...bar none. so, while it's definitely not a "given" that o'neal could come to houston, it's not's completely out of the question. oh, and for the record, both steve francis and jermaine o'neal are "borderline superstars". when trading borderline superstars, i'd take the big man over the little man every day and twice on sundays... keep in mind, we'd still have a proven 20ppg scorer in the backcourt (cuttino mobley). tinsley mobley posey o'neal yao is a very, very, formidable lineup.
Yeah, I never thought of that. This might be a factor. Brand's work ethic and demeanor will be well-received as a replacement for Robinson and a complement to Duncan. but don't you think O'Neal has the edge based on definitely allowing Duncan to play PF, or do you think Brand will cover Shaq, too? You don't think people will offer Brand the max? If Brand is afraid to sign an offer sheet for fear of the Clippers matching it, reason dictates that he'd shy away even more from something less than the max. I still think Brand will sign a 6yr max and force the Clippers to match it. I certainly don't see the Clips doing a SnT for anything less than a star attraction in return. that said, the 6yr would save the Spurs from including the huge 7th year...if that matters much to them. I could definitely see the Spurs and Brand signing an offer sheet very early this Summer to force the Clipper's hand, while still having time to enter the O'Neal sweepstakes if the Clippers match it. So yeah, I agree that the Spurs could give Brand the offer, first. And they can't give Brand and O'Neal official offers at the same time. Brand's offer would hit their salary cap until matched.
While I agree that Brand would work well in San Antonio it seems like Duncan is DEAD SET on getting a CENTER to replace Robinson. And Brand is just not big enough to play center. (Of course neither is Malik Rose). Duncan has some huge hangup in playing the center position for some odd reason. Personally, when things are all said and done I would not be surprised to see Rasho Nesterovic or Brad Miller being signed by the Spurs to play the center spot with money left over for someone such as a Meggette to give the Spurs a young scoring swingman. Somehow I just don't see the Spurs getting ONE huge impact player like Brand, O'neal or Kidd but rather two decent players.
We got MoT with our MLE....but I am sure there was some sort of "wink wink" that when his contract was up we would do him right and sign him to a longer more lucritive offer. Similar to what we did with Shandon Anderson when we signed and traded him to NY. It reaked havoc on our salary cap but probably won us points with players in the NBA. They will know that if they sign here we will take care of them.
Yes, but he actually signed for the Mid-Level Exception. NIKEstrad and I are talking about players who signed for more than the exception. The large majority of them seem to sign using Bird Rights, and that is because the new CBA gave significant incentives to use Bird Rights vs free agency. Even considering Mo was worth a higher than average salary contract, NIKEstrad already pointed out that the Clippers seem to be the exception to the rule of refusing to take contracts back in SnTs. That's just Sterling, though. Most teams figure SnTs are worth negotiating, and will always accept draft picks back if they can absorb the salary differences in another way, through a 3-way or directly via trading with a team with cap space or a trade exception (ala Hakeem's trade).
i think brand is as good playing center as o'neal is...especially on the spurs. keep in mind, this is the same team that puts malik rose on shaq (when dave was in foul trouble). the spurs know that if (in this case) brand can just put a body on the center, duncan can come weakside and erase all mistakes. of course, you could argue that o'neal is capable of doing the same thing, but brand's strong, lower center of gravity, imo, is much more effective at guarding bigger men than a lithe jermaine o'neal. popovich has already shown a liking for playing this matchup, so imagining brand doing it for them is not a stretch at all. sure others will be willing to offer the max; but what difference does that make? brand isn't a rookie entering the draft. it's his choice whose offer to accept. can you name a team he'd accept over the spurs? i certainly cannot. and don't you know that the spurs know that they don't have to offer the max for the clips to not match? how many "near max" contracts have the clips ever dished out? and even if the clips do match it, the spurs could care less...jermaine o'neal is a more than decent 2nd option. financially, it makes the most sense to do it this way... as for the clips doing a SnT for anything less than a star attraction, that won't even come into play. they'd rather not offer the big contract. that's all it is to it. it's the reason they let motay walk. it's the reason they let derek anderson walk, too. the clips organization is concerned with one thing and one thing only: making money. and unless they can get a bunch of short term, low $$, exciting players in return for brand, he'll walk for nothing. no team in the nba has a package like that, because they'd have to add up to the max (or near max) for brand. much too difficult to pull off.
Fegan wouldn't have even done that wink wink deal had he not been able to forecast a capspace windfall that the Rockets could give his clients. Shandon and MoT didn't come here because we were nice; they came here for the capspace that would open up with Dream's contract ending. I don't see how that unique situation works with any other free agents. The MoT and Shandon situation doesn't give us any advantage in paying below market versus any other team with no cap space in the foreseeable future.
