even at 16, i don't see it happening since they are already cash strapped and still have needs to address. The only way I see them keeping all their key FA is Mario signing a deal which would probably drop his salary cap number this year to under $10 (depending on how they structure it).
The simplest way to look at it is, 2012 Mario + Arian + Myers need to roughly equal 2011 Mario + Arian + Myers 2012 cap will be near the 2011 cap, and cuts may only balance out salary increases for the rest of the roster plus the 2012 draft class. Arian made virtually nothing last year and Myers' FMV is likely going to be a notable increase ($4+M). It may not be perfect, but using this as a starting point, I'd say that the combined cap figure we're probably looking at is about $19M. Even if Mario's tag number were $16M, I don't see how we could conceivably keep Foster - his spread out signing bonus alone will probably break that number. And that ensures the loss of Myers. I have to think the only way they pull the hat trick is: Foster and Williams both get 6 year deals with ~$36M bonus (each) and 2012 base salary of $1M (each) Myers gets a deal with a 2012 cap figure between $4-$5M. I think the only person they could possibly tag is Myers.
Chris Meyers is good but he's also the most replaceable if you ask me. He's good in run zone, but he stills gets beat in pass coverage. His salary was close to what he should get, if he's looking for a huge payday, let him walk. Find a cheaper replacement.
he's a very good run zone blocker (if not outstanding) and well above average in pass protection. He's one of the best Centers right now and certainly the best for the zone blocking scheme. Him getting $4 mill per isn't that crazy by any means.
If Mario had not been drafted #1 overall by the Texans and played here since 2006, would we be looking at him first in FA? HECK NO!!! People would be saying, "look at our defense last year, its not the problem, we need to spend that money elsewhere" An emotional bias will get in the way of rational thinking.
Mario is generally considered the top free agent on the market by people outside of Houston. http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/02/13/pffs-top-50-free-agents/ No matter who you are or how good you may be at a certain position, it's rational to consider making a play for that caliber player if you can reasonably bring him in. Not saying it's automatic, but it's not an easy decision to spend that money elsewhere.
Well, this certainly makes tagging much less likely. From Andrew Brandt: https://twitter.com/#!/adbrandt
For the love of god, can somebody please show me the math behind the number? It's bugging the crap out of me.
This is what Brandt says: "Williams' calculation is complicated (stay with me): 2011 salary + option bonus and buyback proration = $18.325M. 120% is $21.99M"
I have no idea what the buyback proration is or why it exists. In Mario's case, it appears to be 3.175 million.
That does not really address my question. Are you saying if Mario Williams does not get signed the FO will spend time seriously considering John Abraham or Robert Mathis? We would not, because it is not an area of need and would severly limit who else we could sign in areas that we do need. I believe a majority of Texans fans AND the Texans FO wouldn't even be considering Mario Williams if he had not been a Texan for the past few years. We need to take the blinders off and starts treating players more like assets. I am sorry that you will have to push your #90 jersey to the back of the closet along with the old #8.
i've seen his 2011 salary cap be estimated at 15.1. Obviously there is a few million in some miscellaneous things that make up the remained. The clarity of nfl contracts...gotta love em
If John Abraham or Robert Mathis were as young as Williams, considered the same level of talent and had an interest in playing in Houston, yes I think they'd seriously consider them. It's funny - I think you're the one that needs to look at players as assets. That's exactly why the Texans are so interested in bringing Mario back, despite the fact that they proved they could survive without him. He's considered the most talented FA on the market, is young and has an interest in playing here. If you can bring in that level of talent, you do it and worry about the exact fit later.
So now that we've established that Mario's franchise number is 22 million, I state again that I think the most likely scenario is that Mario is gone next year.
Not if both sides don't want to franchise... chances are, they'll be able to work out a long term deal with massive restructuring clauses that allow the team to remain flexible in total payroll, but Mario to still get all his money.
why? Franchising isn't the only option and honestly I don't think it was ever a real consideration. Mario's cap number should he resign here, will be less than it was this past seasons
The stats show that Mario Williams impact on our defense is negligible. He may have talent, but it has never made the Texans defense any better. So now we look back at my original statment. Texans fans / FO would not be considering Mario if he had not been a #1 overall and played here for the past few years. We have other positions where we need to upgrade talent / resign talent. Think about this Texans fans. You can keep the same team you had last year, you (hopefully) get your starting QB and #1 WR back, AND you can have ANY FA WR or DB that is available. OR you could sign Mario Williams in the hope that he actually does make a $15 million a year impact on our defense....which he has already proven that he will not.
I say offer him a long, back-loaded deal that is reasonable to us now and in the future, and let him make the decision.
you have to hope he takes less to stay here than he could get elsewhere. we'll see...but i'm really hoping they sink those resources into areas of greater need than the defensive line.
I think the texans offer will be fairly competitive and reasonable. Will it be the absolute most? No but I don't know if Mario is going to sacrifice the opportunity that the texans are offering for a couple extra million, i.e. a superbowl contending team..i'm assuming the teams that do offer more will be the likes of the Bucs, Miami, and other average teams. I'm also a little hesistant if any teams are really going to break the bank and overpay for Mario to pry him away.
