[Fran Blinebury - Houston Chronicle] JVG's Team

we were a 50 win team if everyone was healthy. Battier maybe gives us a couple more wins but even Gay at half his potential could push us over the top

 

gucci888,
The Rockets got something very special when they got Tracy McGrady. They got something special with Yao Ming. The window is definitely closing on Tracy and the Rockets can reload later in Yao's career, but the future is uncertain. Right now they know they can beat every team in the league with this roster healthy. If they are to do it, they've got to do it now. This move wasn't about whether or not Rudy Gay will pan out in the future. This trade was made because Rudy Gay will NEVER be as good as Tracy McGrady is right now. Playing the 2 will give Tracy some longevity and gives our Rockets crew the length, the quickness, shooting, rebounding etc that we covet at the 2. Our 3 spot just got worse, our PF depth is worse, but we've got a starting player that can shoot the 3, spread the floor and allow Yao to do his thing.

All that stuff that you said Ronnie Brewer would do for us, Shane already proved it in 5 years of NBA level basketball. He plays defense well. He is not a "lock down" guy, but are there any lock down guys out there? I don't believe there are. He shoots the ball well. NBA well. 39% last year from the 3pt line and beyond. Career 38%. He shoots the ball well inside the arc too. He's a smart player. We don't have to watch him with the ball and say, "uh-oh". He rebounds from the 3 position. He collects a couple of assists. Last year he got 1.4 blks/g.... He's everything we dreamed Ronnie Brewer to be, but he's not a dream. He's real. All we had to do to get the dream Ronnie Brewer was give away one of our worst players in terms of on/off team production. Let me restate that, we got rid of one of our cancers and got a real version of a dream draft pick. It's almost guaranteed too. He's only missed 14 games over 5 years. That is consistency. The thing that championships are built on.

Shane Battier is a winner. He's won a LOT at Duke. He's won awards. He's won plenty of games in the NBA. He makes the playoffs regularly. The only negative is that he hasn't done well in the playoffs..... ...He played for the Memphis Grizzlies. They are not a good team. No matter how you fry it. They've been the lower seed every year and they are always picked to lose. Prophecies by Vegas get fulfilled. There are no big time guys on that team. They play like Detroit, but without the toughness. How can you expect a role player to step it up that much against the Spurs every year, or Dallas, or the Lakers or whatever team is hot. How do you expect Battier to overcome the hottest teams in the NBA with bad versions of the Pistons?

If winning in the playoffs is what makes you a 'winner', then our team is lead by losers, accept for JVG. He's made it to the finals. Winning is a frame of mind, not a result. It's a style. It's doing the little things night in and night out. Shane does that. Swift didn't. No 19 year old will do the little things night in and night out either.

It takes the Kobes, Garnetts and others years to get to that level. We're not gambling that Rudy won't make it. We're hedging our bets with Tracy. I think it's smart. I welcome Morey and his way of thinking. It's better than CD's ways of the past. A handshake can't get anything done these days. Research and knowledge and computer modeling is the way of the future. At least for now.

p.s. http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/teams/hou/roster He's on the roster already.

 

JVG is Isiah Thomas under a stingy owner. Enough said.

 

I read your post, clicked on the link, and then immediately felt like I was going to throw up.

 

I don't think we are looking to Shane for our 3rd option. I think our MLE will be a 3rd option scorer. Shane is a guaranteed stat filler upper. The guy that helps you win. Not the guy that carries you. Tell me this. If you could write on a piece of paper what you dreamt Ronnie Brewer to be at best case scenario next year, what would it have been? For me, it would be Shane Battier +5ppg. And it's a low risk bet that Shane will do at least this much: 10ppg, 5rpg, 2 apg, 1 bpg, low turnovers, smart play.

That's a high risk that a #8 draft pick would provide that stat line first year. Especially a 19 year old #8 pick. Even 3/4 years down the road it would be a risk for him to provide those stats. Rudy Gay is not a guarantee. He's got a great NBA body, but after watching him play, I'm not sold on him. I am sold that Battier can come in here and be the same player he was last year. I would not have made that trade if we picked Brandon Roy or Morrison or even Tyrus Thomas. I like the deal because it's Rudy Gay. He reminds me of a horse that looks fast, but loses every race.

Gambling is a bad idea. Odds are on the house. We probably knew something about Gay that we didn't want. We found our gambler to prey off of. Now they have to deal with Swift again. They have a player that has proved that he sucks the life out of a run and now a guy that probably will suck too. He fell in the draft for a reason. He's not that good right now. Why did people pass on him? Paxon, Colangelo, Jordan, etc, etc. Aren't you just a little skeptical of this guy? Why do you think Rudy will turn out to be so great? Shane was the 6th player picked in his draft. Why do you think a number 8 is going to be so much better? Have you seen Rudy play or did you just read that he's 6'9" and has a vertical and can dunk? I like this trade. I've seen Shane play well in the NBA. I haven't seen Gay play well. Not even in college. Eight teams passed on this guy. Don't forget that.

On another note.
Arkoe, are you a drama queen?

 

I won't be too surprised if there is another deal in the summer, a big deal.

 

Juwan Howard for cash consideration?

Chuck Hayes for a 2008 2nd round draft pick?

 

great posts don...

 

I would like to visit a Marion for Gay/Swift trade if we can get the first Gay trade erased(early reports show the Rockets might not follow through)....

But seriously, I think looking at the overall picture here losing Gay & Swift and picking up Battier doesn't make us that much better immediately or in the future. It's a safe pick, yes - but subtracting Swift and and adding Battier makes us a little more sound on fundamentals but if we win 45+ games next year, it's going to be because of Yao & Tmac's health and have less to do with whether Swift or Battier is there. If we lost last year in the playoffs because we lacked a piece like Battier - okay, then pull the trade. Even if we had Battier two years ago we would have lost to the Mavs. And that's the problem here. Battier alone isn't a significant piece.

Gay on the other hand...is really the only person in the draft who could truly be a dominate offensive and defensive player. The kid's 19. Knocks are that he's soft and unmotivated - he's 19. He can dominate on the collegiate level when he wants to and I think as he gains maturity he does that with more consistency in the pros. Even if he only does the bare minimum - with his talent he puts up Battier type numbers pretty easily.

In all of this we are selling short in how dominate Yao is to become. We can look at this like capturing the window of Tmac or we can prepare for when Tmac is older but Yao is in his prime, and Gay is just reaching his potential. It could be a real sight to behold.

I keep wavering on whether this is a good deal and I had almost sold myself on Battier(temporarly forgetting Swift), but the more I look at it its better for the Rockets now and in the future to keep Gay. Even if Gay is an underachiever he will put up numbers at least as decent as Battier and you only have to pay Gay 3mil the next 3 seasons. Look at the FA market - you can't get a towel boy for that much...

 

I just got done watching highlights of Rudy Gay. I'm about to do a little throwing up myself....

Okay, not really, but he IS enticing. I love, not only that he dunks, but the way he dunks. He could easily be an NBA highlight, refs love him, NBA loves em' player... BUT, the highlights were all dunks. You can't just dunk all day in the NBA. There are 6'9" players on the bench that could stop you from doing that, much less starters. He looks great, but show me something other than a dunk or are those his only skills?

I watched a highlight reel afterwards of Wade, Lebron, Gordon and Carmelo... tail of two cities. Rudy got a bunch of break away dunks. These guys all dunk in traffic. That's the difference. The entire NBA can finish on the break. I don't want to look back and say, "nice highlight". I want to look back and say, "That was a nice win... Our guys played that one to win.". Plus Shane, minus Swift gives you that ability to play to win.

I do "get it" though. Rudy does look REAL good. My gut still tells me "no". My head says, "those dunks that you saw won't be available night in and night out in the NBA".

 

Not normally. To find out for sure, I took the Drama Queen Test. I scored a ten and it told me the following about myself:

Don't get me wrong, I actually do like Battier. He's a smart player who makes good decisions with the ball. However, we got absolutely fleeced getting him. Is Swift a smart basketball player? No, but he puts up basically the same the numbers. Swift for Battier straight up would have been an alright deal. I even probably would have thrown in Head, or just about anybody else on our team not named Yao or Tracy if Memphis really wanted somebody else.

In my opinion though, throwing in a player who had been projected to go as high as first for a solid roll player is dumb. The only way Gay wouldn't put up decent numbers next year and down the road is if JVG doesn't play him, which given JVG's track record wouldn't be much of a surprise. I'm still kind of annoyed that JVG was still not giving minutes to Swift even after we were out of the playoffs. His insistance on starting Howard doesn't really help the team any. Give Swift more time and see if he turns it around.

All the Rockets talk about is building for the future and getting younger. Gay's almost ten years younger than Battier. He has a chance to be a star in the league. Battier's will never be more than a role player. If we don't draft good young players, how are we going to get any? In this case, I think the gamble is worth the risk for an athletic freak who we were lucky to have fall to us. The fact that there was apparently only one player in the draft worth keeping to JVG says a lot about his coaching style.

Hell, in the end I wish they would have taken a chance on Redick than going the route they chose.

 

You're basing your analysis of Gay on a few highlight reels?

I've watched about 20 of his games...to say that he only dunks is insane. He probably dunks once per game. Most of his buckets are off of midrange pull-ups and follows in the lane. He has terrific touch around the basket and has a few power moves in the post.

I'll say it again: Rudy scores in the flow of the offense and can be a game-changing defender in the NBA. You don't pass that up for Shane Battier.

He has so much more to offer, but naysayers assume he can only dunk based on a few fan-made highlight reels.

 

No more surprise, please.

 

3 million will get you 5 Chuck Hayezes.... Good post. I really like the thought process behind Yao being the center piece soon and in the future. It all made sense to me.

Shane can help us go small(he plays PF some) and we still haven't finished the free agency period. We can still get a guy. *cough* *uh-hem* CATO for LLE *huuaa* Much better.

Lost track of what I was thinking. Gay and Swift may help us beat Dallas if they play really well, but stupid play by a rookie and a dumb vet won't help that much either. However, I take all that back if Swift isn't part of the deal. If that happens, this is on the record, "I love Swift". Same deal if the trade is cancelled too.

Shane wouldn't help us win that series either, but I would have enjoyed losing with Battier guarding Dirk more than Tracy guarding dirk. A healthy Juwon would have been 10 times better than Bowen. Oh well.

Based on us pushing Dallas to the brink 2 years ago, I think we're closer than we think. A third PF, a backup PG and a combo scoring guard.. we're back in the playoffs. My short list would be Cato, Mike James, Bonzi Wells, Speedy Claxton and Sam Cassell. Juwon needs to get his energy back too.

 

I took that test too. I'm trying to figure out a way to get under 50% without lying. You are, like, SO much less of a drama person than me.

I'm with you on Redick. I also would have been satisfied with taking New Orleans picks', but what is done is done. And we don't have Swift anymore! That cannot be misunderestimated.

 

Yes. And his numbers. It's all I have to go off of. And he's 19. And few 19 year olds that only score 15ppg in college jump up and score 20ppg in the NBA. And rookies take a while to develop. All of them.

I'm not an NBA talent scout with access to tons of tape. However, I could be if the Rocket's want me. I'm down for the Rockets and I love to travel. That's my resume'.

 

Until he shows otherwise, Swift is a bust. That said, I still wish JVG had given him more minutes to see how he'd respond. So far since JVG's been in Houston, he's only given two young players real playing time - Yao and Head. Head wouldn't have seen anywhere near as many minutes if our team had been healthy. I don't know, I just don't get JVG. Juwon Howard's old and steals sunglasses. I don't understand why JVG loves him so much, or why Bowen's even on this team.

 

Do you remember when we were scoring 120 ppg two years ago? When Juwon hits that mid-range jumper it spreads the floor and makes everyone's weapons that much better. We were sick last year. Terminally ill. Juwon can still provide that spacing. He's not that bad. He was the focus of our offense when Yao/Tmac weren't in the game. He's a good 3rd option when healthy. He'll look good again when Yao and Tracy make him look good.

We even had an outside shot at the playoffs with last year's problems. We're good. We just have to get healthy. Everything starts with Tracy and Yao. If Tracy needed to play the 2 again for his back, then that's why we made this trade. Swift and Rudy Gay are not starting Small Forwards. Shane is. This might be JJ For Wesley Part Deaux: The Reversal.

 

You never saw Gay play well? You probably didn't watch Uconn much then. At his best and Uconn's best, he looked like the best player in the nation.

Is picking Gay a bit of gamble? Yes.
However, it's a bigger gamble to trade him along with Swift for Shane "10/5" Swift. Lottery picks from Uconn have faired quite well (Charlie Villanueva, Emeka Okafor, Ben Gordon, Caron Butler, Rip Hamilton, Ray Allen, Donyell Marshall). Doesn't seem to be such a big gamble to me unless he's the first Uconn lottery pick to flop.

And please don't compare this guy to Swift. While like Swift he's very athletic, but the big difference is that he's fundamentally sound with a great jumper.