[FoxSports.Com] Astros will pursue free agent Luis Castillo

Excellent points.

Here are Luis Castillo's OBP numbers his first 3 seasons:
.320
.310
.307

Willy Taveras fist 3 seasons:
.325
.333
.367

 

Concur - would be an excellent move. With Castillo, you get essentially a proven version of what you hope Chris Burke might be (though high-end Burke might have a little more pop). But Castillo is also a switch-hitter whose splits are not drastic at all - he'd be a very good addition.

If this goes down, and barring other moves:

Castillo (S)
Pence (R)
Berkman (S)
Lee (R)
Wigginton (R)
Scott (L)
Towles (R)
Everett (R)

It could certainly be worse.

 

True that.

 

That's not a bad lineup for our division, especially if Towles hits reasonably well and if Scott doesn't start slow next year. Consider that with a full year of Pence, we'll have 3 100+ RBI guys and hopefully 2 70+ RBI guys with Wiggi and Scott. That should leave room in the budget to go after a starting pitcher, hopefully Schilling.

 

i wish the astros play more small ball this past season and probably next season with our offense being below avg

 

Are you kidding? Castillo's at-bats in those seasons: 164, 253, 153. Between those three seasons combined, he had the sample size of one season.

What happened when he first received regular playing time:
.384 OBP, .418 OBP

What happened when Taveras first received regular playing time:
.325 OBP, .333 OBP

 

Do you not understand the difference between six consecutive seasons of a quality OBP and 97 games?

As for not understanding the term -- sorry, I think I do. Look at his performance in 2005 and 2006. Hell, look at his playoff production in 2007. Look at his minor league numbers (outside of one season in 2004). Look at his scouted talent. Most evidence doesn't point to Taveras being a player likely to regularly produce an OBP in the upper .300s. These 97 games were certainly an outlier.

 

Mr. Clutch/Brando. Leave the thread, lmao.

 

Why wasnt Castillo playing those early seasons? Because he sucked.

Taveras was forced to play because the Astros sucked.

Naturally, the Astros trade him right before he gets good.

 

I will leave the thread when I stop believing that Heart and Leadership and Fire are important.

 

Not an Astros fan, but it's odd to me that you're ignoring the fact that Taveras' isoOBP was actually higher in 2006 (.055) over 149 games than in 2007 (.047) over 97 games (his P/PA was considerably higher in '06 as well). Before you cite the Coors effect, consider that he also had a .054 isoOBP on the road.

It also strikes me as strange that you don't consider his .082 minor league isoOBP (.288 BA / .370 OBP overall). I really don't see how you can dismiss his newfound patience at the plate as a fluke.

EDIT: On second thought, I think your point went over my head. Rereading the thread, I think what you were saying was that Willy T's OBP was a product of a higher BA in 2007, which I guess I just tidily proved for you in the above post. That said, that argument has some flaws too.

Though Taveras had a very high BAbip in 2007 (.370), that's somewhat to be expected from a speedster who gets a ton of infield hits. Case in point, he had a .330 BAbip in 2006 and a .345 BAbip in 2005. One must also consider that Willy's young, cheap, and by most metrics a phenomenal CFer.

That said, that really doesn't have much to do with whether or not the 'Stros should sign Castillo, for which I really don't have an opinion. He really doesn't seem worth a draft pick though, IMO..

 

Exactly!~!!!

 

Why has this turned into a Willy T vs Luis Castillo thread? I understand that they are similar hitters, but Castillo is a middle infielder, while Taveras is an OF. Offensive production from the latter is expected, and good offensive CFs are abundant. Not so for 2B.

 

I dont know, Cat is obsessed with Willy T. What did Willy T do wrong besides go to the World Series 2 times?

 

While that does tend to be the popular view, when you look at each team in the Majors last year, most of them got more production(measured here by OPS) from 2B than from CF.

The Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Devil Rays, Orioles, White Sox, Royals, Angels, A's, Phillies, Braves, Nationals, Marlins, Cubs, Brewers, Reds, Pirates, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers all got more production from 2B than CF.

In fairness, this likely doesn't mean much, as defense is emphasized more at both positions.

 

You're the person who brought Taveras into this thread, not me. Go look.

 

Eh, even for a speed guy, .370 is far beyond what's reasonable to produce on a consistent basis in terms of BABIP. I'd say the mean between his two years in Houston (.337 ish) is a much more realistic expectation. Even if I'm generous and estimate a regular .340 BABIP for Taveras, that would've knocked down that OBP to .337 last season, which is more in line with what I expect.

Don't get me wrong; I'm not saying Taveras is a free swinger. I know he has some discipline, as evidenced by the numbers you showed. But I think his batting average jump has fluke written all over it, given that his line drive percentage didn't increase, his gap power didn't increase, and his walk rate didn't increase. His style isn't one to be a consistent .320 hitter. And when he goes back down into the more reasonable .290 range, he doesn't have enough discipline (imo) to be expected to post an OBP of above .350.

Also, what metrics are you looking at that show him as a phenomenal CF? Everything I've seen -- RZR, RF, ZR -- has him in the good but not great range. He seems great in centerfield when I watch him, but I haven't seen any metrics back that up, which is a little confusing.

 

Yep, the Astros team in 2005 sucked. Didn't they go to the World Series that year?

 

yea but a .330 babip is about what an average player would put up in coor's field. historically players in coors field have average a .330 babip vs. the mlb average of 290 to 300 in other parks. Considering he was over a career .340 babip before he played at coors (even higher in the minor leagues), then a .370 babip in colorado isn't as out of place as it appears

Further when you factor in increases in plate discipline and improved K/AB rates, one should expect a significant increase in both his avg and obp once leaving houston for colorado.

 

Oh, so Willy T. was a key cog in 2 World Series teams?