Dayn Perry picks the Astros to finish fourth. ...Just like he did last year. You'd think he learned his lesson. http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5384626
Without Clemens thats about where I'd pick us to finish. 3rd or 4th in a tight NL Central. We finished 2nd last season WITH an amazing Clemens. Do you really think Preston Wilson is that much of a difference maker to push us to the top? How can you expect anyone to predict the Astros to finish 1st in the NL Central until Clemens signs? Milwaukee is the real wild card. They have so many young studs. They could be real scary...or they could end up being Milwaukee again.
We didn't have Lance Berkman or Jeff Bagwell/decent replacement at all last year. The Astros at minimum are the second best team in the central. We have a better bullpen than milwaukee, and i'll take Roy and Andy over Sheets(battling injury again already) and Davis. Capuano was incredibly lucky last year and Ohka and Helling are run of the mill back end of the rotation pitchers. We also have an equal or better offense than milwaukee. Don't believe me: C-Miller over Ausmus 1B-Berkman over Fielder 2B-Biggio over Weeks(weeks will be better in the longrun, but doubtful this year) SS-Hardy/Hall over Everett 3B-Ensberg over Koskie/Hall LF-Lee over Wilson CF-Clark over Taveras RF-Lane and Jenkins about a wash But continue to vastly underrate the Astros, if you like to continually be wrong.
Astros managed a second place finish after an absolutely horrid start and next to no offense for half the season; two things I wouldn't expect happening again. We'll have Berkman for a full season, Lane should be better, Wilson is a marginal improvement and any Bags is better than no Bags. Clemens was amazing but it was mostly for naught. And don't forget this is a WS team that has remained pretty much intact. And that is a huge intangible. They could place 4th...but they could just as easily place 1st. Can't wait for the season to start though!
I do not really have any problem with this projection (4th). On paper we have issues but I expect us to finish at worst in second place. One thing about baseball and our division is the "if" factor. There are somany "if"s and we are hoping that most of the good ones break in our favor. Our major ifs are..... Payton Lane Taveras Clemens Burke Qualls ....and our offense as a whole. Only time can tell and I cannot wait.
I would tend to agree with you but man I thought we would not even make the playoffs last year and we ended up in the series, who knows?
these guys never learn. oh, well. it makes it more fun this way, anyway. my son got his SI for Kids last night. it has us finishing second and hitting at the Wild Card. Barry Zito makes his picks in there and picks the 'stros to win the division.
did the competition get better? do you think St. Louis wins 100 games again? do you think having Berkman all season healthy will be a positive and improve our record? would a healthier more effective roger down the stretch be better for us?
Wait a minute ... What was the Astros record when Clemens pitched last year? If I remember right it wasn't that good and we wasted one of his best seasons ever. W/o Clemens we might not lose many more games than that last year at that rotation spot, but with Clemens we should be able to do better in his spot than last year.
Well the key to our success last year was Clemens. We no longer have him. Our hitting was horrible, and all we added was Preston Wilson. Why would anyone predict us to get top 3 in the division?
That's very arguable. As great as he pitched last season, our record in his games was not that great. Sure, he will be missed, but we didn't win last year because of him. Our hitting was horrible the first two months of the season without a fully healthy Berkman and no Bagwell. In the last four months of the season, I believe we were 5th in the league in runs scored.
That statistic is VERY suspect. The thing that most people don't look at with regard to Clemen's record last year was that other teams typically matched their Ace starter against him. Win or lose, he took their ace pitcher away from Pettitte and Oswalt, who got to face their #2 and #3 pitchers, for the most part. Make no mistake, losing Clemens will be huge to our chances of making the playoffs again.
A couple of things - I believe Clemens started the season as our #2 or #3 pitcher last season (Roy started opening day). Secondly, after the first week, pitchers are no longer matched up because everyone has different bye weeks. Unless it was simply a statistical fluke, Roger didn't face opposing aces any more than any other pitcher on the staff.
For starters, Roger Clemens was the 3rd starter, meaning he faced the opposing teams 3rd starter more often than not. Teams did not line up aces against him. A) that's stupid managing b) they pitch who is scheduled to pitch based on rest Roy and Andy don't need help to beat people either. They are elite pitchers.
While you can "technically" call him our #3 starter, about 1/3 into the season other teams started playing their aces against him. Hell, where can we find his matchups last season?
fatty - you don't schedule your ace to matchup with the other team's ace during the regular season. you put them on a rotation and you don't upset it unless you have to. the astros don't change who they'll pitch on any given night based on who is pitching for the other team. MLB teams don't typically do that in the regular season.
Nope. http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/3340/gamelog;_ylt=AtlnGDZsXp2CDLIoHtERKYqFCLcF Check the box scores. You can go look at the game logs for the opposing starters as well. They were not shuffled around to create matchups against Roger (or anyone). Baseball teams don't do that, outside of resetting the rotation after the All-Star Break & skipping a starter on an off day here & there.
