Fox News Poll - 7 Point Kerry Surge Since Friday

(November 01, 2004 -- 12:20 PM EDT)

The final Fox News poll -- with calls on Saturday and Sunday only -- has Kerry over Bush 48% to 46% among likely voters. Among registered voters it's Kerry 47%, Bush 45%. Among those who've already voted, it's Kerry 48%, Bush 43%.

Fox has been releasing not a tracking poll, but a new poll every day for the last four days: Friday, Bush +5; Saturday Bush +2; Sunday, tied; Monday, Kerry +2.

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/003887.php


Candidates Make Most of 11th Hour

Monday, November 01, 2004

By Liza Porteus

In an 11th-hour stumpfest through prime battleground states, President Bush (search) and Sen. John Kerry (search) ratcheted up their campaigning Monday, stressing that this year's election was all about making a choice that could make or break the future of America.

The late appeal to voters came as the latest FOX News/Opinion Dynamics survey gave Kerry a slight edge in the race.

The poll of 1,200 likely voters, conducted Oct. 30-31, gave the Massachusetts senator 48 percent compared to Bush's 46 percent. Independent candidate Ralph Nader got 1 percent support. The numbers were within the 3 percent margin of error.

The previous FOX News poll, released Sunday, put the two candidates at a tie, both with 46 percent. Nader had 1 percent support then as well.

Click here for Monday's edition of FOXNews.com's daily campaign digest, Trail Tales.

FOX News political analyst Michael Barone noted that in the last day before the election, both candidates were mainly fighting on turf that Al Gore won in 2000.

Four out of the six states being visited Monday were "blue states" four years ago (states voting Republican are known as "red states.")

Kerry was trying to get out his base of support in all of the battleground states being visited on Monday, while Bush was trying to get his base energized in Ohio, a state he won in 2000 but is in danger of losing this election.

Concentrating on Ohio over other states suggests confidence, Barone said. It is "saying the president's in a stronger position when you look at state-to-state polls. But neither candidate has got this election sewed up."

Bush: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico and Finally Texas

The president began his day Monday in Wilmington, Ohio — his 40th trip to the Buckeye State. There, he touted his record combating terrorism and went after his Democratic opponent on his health-care plan, among other things.

"The wrong prescription for American families is to federalize your health care," Bush told a crowd of about 3,000 at the airport rally in Wilmington before turning to the cornerstone of his campaign — the War on Terror.

"All progress on every other issue depends on the safety of our citizens," Bush continued. "If this country of ours shows any uncertainty or weakness during these troubling times, the world will drift towards tragedy. This is not going to happen on my watch."

He told voters that this election is a matter of trust.

"There is a lot at stake in this election. The future safety and prosperity of this country are on the ballot," the president said. "Ultimately, though, this election comes down to who do you trust? Who do you trust to make the tough decisions? Who do you trust to lead this country to a better tomorrow?"

The Republican incumbent also assured the crowd that the economy was getting stronger, pointing to Ohio's jobless rate, which fell last month from 6.3 percent to 6 percent — but is still more than half a point above the national average.

Ohio has a net lost of more than 200,000 jobs during Bush's tenure.

"I know the economy of this state has been through a lot, but we are moving in the right direction," Bush said.

Red Sox star pitcher and Bush supporter Curt Schilling (search) was also at the rally. Schilling, the hero of this year's World Series, bowed out of an appearance in New Hampshire last week, citing his injured ankle.

On the weekend, he recorded a telephone message to get voters to the polls, and on Monday, with a protective boot over his injured ankle, he invited fans to join a winning team by voting for Bush's re-election.

"On Tuesday, we need you to get out and vote. We need you to get your friends and neighbors out to vote — tell them you're voting for President Bush and get them on board, too," Schilling said. "I know everybody wants to be on a winning team, and there's plenty of room on this bandwagon."

The ace pitcher said Bush was a commander in chief who would ensure troops "have everything they need to get the job done, a leader who believes in their mission and honors their service, a leader who has the courage and the character to stay on the offense against terrorism until the war is won."

Schilling and his wife, Shonda, also helped introduce Bush at a later rally in Burgettstown, Pa., just west of Pittsburgh.

Upon landing at Pittsburgh International Airport later Monday morning, the president said "he's feeling good" and that he was doing seven campaign stops Monday because he wanted to tell the American people he was doing everything to protect them.

First lady Laura Bush also stressed the "choice" theme on Monday.

"Tomorrow, we face a choice between an America that is uncertain in the face of danger, or an America that takes decisive action to defeat terror and to spread liberty," Mrs. Bush said during a rally in Cleveland, Ohio.

Cheney was campaigning in four states Monday: Hawaii, Colorado, Nevada and Wyoming. During one of two stops in Nevada, at a victory 2004 rally in Henderson, the vice president will be joined by Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain.

After Ohio and Pennsylvania, Bush was to travel to Wisconsin, Iowa and New Mexico, before Air Force One touched down in Dallas, where the president was to visit his wife Laura's alma mater, Southern Methodist University (search).

Bush planned to cast his own vote in Crawford, Texas, on Tuesday, then head back to Washington — and perhaps make some Election-Day campaign stops in Ohio and Florida on the way.

In a humorous twist, Bush advisers on Sunday descended the steps of Air Force One at the Cincinnati airport wearing camouflage jackets, a Halloween stunt tweaking Kerry for donning "camo" to go hunting in Ohio last month. They handed out M&Ms on the tarmac.

Kerry: Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin

Kerry began his Monday at an appearance in Orlando, Fla., and then was scheduled to head to Milwaukee, Detroit, Cleveland and Toledo.

"This is the choice. This is the moment of accountability for America, it's the moment where the world is watching what you're going to do," Kerry said an airport rally in Orlando. "All of the hopes and dreams, all of the hopes and dreams of our country are on the line today. The choice is clear."

Kerry said that during the presidential debates with Bush, he tried to talk about issues such as education and homeland security, but that effort is made difficult when "the president just keeps looking at you and saying, 'It's hard work, it's hard work, it's hard work.'"

Earlier in the day, Kerry told CBS' "The Early Show" that voters should look to his Vietnam experience to reject Republican charges that he's not tough enough to be commander in chief.

"When I turned my boat in Vietnam into an ambush and I went straight into the ambush and overran it, I didn't see George Bush or Dick Cheney at my side," Kerry said. "So I'm not going to take a second seat to anybody in my willingness to be tough to defend the United States of America. I did it when it mattered, and as president, I will defend the United States of America with everything I have."

At the end of the day, Kerry was scheduled to fly back to Boston, where aides say he will vote Tuesday and, following his own Election Day tradition, eat lunch at the Union Oyster House.

His running mate, North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, was to spend Monday campaigning in Iowa, Ohio and Florida.

In St. Paul, Minn., Edwards implored Democrats in battleground states to vote, declaring that "tomorrow can be better than today" with Kerry in the White House.

"The American dream is on the ballot," he added, then exclaimed, "It is on the ballot tomorrow."

At a late-night rally in Pompano Beach, Fla., Monday, singer Jimmy Buffett was scheduled to warm up the crowd before Edwards took the stage.

Rocker John Bon Jovi has joined Kerry on the trail as well; Bruce Springsteen will again join him in Cleveland on Monday, while Motown legend Stevie Wonder will play at a Kerry event in Detroit.

Former President Bill Clinton (search) campaigned for Kerry in Arkansas on Sunday, speaking to 4,500 people at a Little Rock rally. Bush leads his challenger by about eight points in Arkansas, but Clinton told supporters that the state would hinge on voter turnout.

Two things have shaken up both campaigns in the last days of the campaign.

A new videotape released by terrorist leader Usama bin Laden warned against another four years of a Bush-Cheney administration, while the controversy over what exactly happened to about 377 tons of explosives that disappeared from a depot in Iraq continued to be an issue.

The Pentagon said Friday that U.S. troops had been responsible for moving and destroying about 250 tons of materièl, which included some of the missing explosives.

Massachusetts Liberal or Texas Ranger?

Political observers of all persuasions agree that voter turnout will determine the outcome of what portends to be an extremely close race. Both parties have launched vast voter registration and recruitment efforts.

"We're all waiting to se what's going to happen on the ground tomorrow," said Democratic strategist Kirsten Power. "The numbers are up so much in terms of registered voters but will they turn out?"

In an interview broadcast Monday on ABC's "Good Morning America," Kerry predicted "a record turnout" and said he believed "Americans are determined not to see a repeat of 2000."

Bush said it was vital to see a clear winner emerge election night, especially considering how closely the process is being watched around the world.

"We'll see how it goes Tuesday night, but I really think it's important not to have a world of lawsuits that stop the will of the people from going forward," the president told "Dateline NBC."

The security issue may be one that helps voters on the fence decide on a candidate.

"If they're undecided, if those issues [like the economy and health care] haven't resolved for them, I think at the end of the day, they're going to say 'Who can keep us safer?' And I think the tilt goes toward George Bush," Kansas Republican Sen. Sam Brownback told FOX News on Monday. He said voters will ask themselves: 'Am I going to go with a Massachusetts liberal or a Texas ranger?"

http://www.foxnews.com/printer_friendly_story/0,3566,137231,00.html

 

I'll be voting in Baltimore at 7:00 AM and then I'll be hitting the road for Philadelpha to work with Move On to GOTV.