[Fox' Berman] Swift deciding between Rockets, Nets and Sonics

those possibilities have me salivating.....

swift's the man i want here; not so much for any offense he'll bring, but for the overall ramifications he can have by helping yao out down low and on the p 'n r.

 

If Nick Collison is the only offensive option your team has inside, your team is not going to go very far. Offensively, I'd say the ceiling on him is about 8 ppg. Maybe you've seen something in him that I haven't, but I can't imagine him ever being a player that Ray Allen or Rashard Lewis can ever throw the ball to and say "create your own shot". Nor do I think Radmanovic is particularly good at creating his own shot. The guy can't dribble to save his life and he has no post up game. He's a spot up shooter. Nothing more.

You mentioned before that last season was Collison's rookie season, but the guy will be 25 by the time the season starts. He doesn't have much upside and he doesn't have much skill. He plays hard and he plays smart. That's about it. Same could be said about Doleac.

I think perhaps where we differ about Swift is his ability to create his own shot. You probably think that because he lacks a good back-to-the basket game, that he will not be the inside presence the Sonics need. Swift is very good at creating his own shot in the half court. He just doesn't do it with his back to the basket like most big men. His offensive game is very similar to Amare Stoudamire and Kenyon Martin. He uses his athleticism and quickness to drive past most big men and get to the basket, where he'll usually get a dunk or some free throws. Swift is very capable of being a great half court player. He's not just an athletic freak that can only dunk and catch alley oop passes.

I don't know why you're making it seem as if the Sonics would be losing Collison and Fortson by signing Swift. Those are 2 players that would be playing next to Swift and both would make excellent complements to Swifts game.

 

Actually none of these guys, Swift included, are guys you can say, throw me the ball, and I'll draw doubles and create oppertunnities for others. If Seattle wanted a guy like this they would target SAR or Walker (or Curry), not Swift.

I do think Collison is smarter in the half court than Swift, better at getting position, stronger, and has great hands. His FG% was 54% last year, 60% in the playoffs (vs Spurs/Kings), Swift was 45%, close to his career average of 47%. Collison isn't a slug like Doleac. He isn't a great athlete, but he is OK one with very good body control, a better comparison is somewhere between Brad Miller or J. Howard athletically. Overall he may not be better player than Swift, but I don't think there will be a lot of difference in their total impact on a team like the Sonics.

His numbers sure don't bear that out. He has an average FG% overall for a 3rd plus option, never being above 48% for any season (45% last year). His percent outside of dunks and layups is poor, like 30% or below (28% e-jumper). Stoudamire shot 56%, and this includes lots of jumpers (43% e-jumpers). As for KMart, probably the weakest element to his game is his low-post and jump shot game (36% e-jumper, still a good % better than Swift's), it makes him too inconsistent to be a reliable option early in the half court unless he is playing a guy he can really exploit.

Also, you can knock Collison for growth potential and I agree it isn't a ton, but he still only played 1 season and his scoring average and Fg% went even higher in the playoffs. I think they are pretty confident they have a good role player and good team citizen in him. Swift has been very consistent the last 4 years, all pretty much hovering around the 47FG%, 10.5 PPG, 5.2RBG, 1.5BPG give or take a little--remarkably consistent after his 1st year in fact. We are talking about a 5 year vet who has been flat after year 2, no-one should be confusing him with a future superstar or even a star, but he could be a decent role player in the right situation.

I agree Swift would compliment them, but he would not create the match-up problems VR would (making opponenets guard Seattle all over the floor in spots 1-4). That is why I say they are better off keeping VR, particularly if they have to lay out a huge contract to Swift, which is what I think they would need to. Alternatively they could try to trade for a guy who could be a true force inside (e.g., Curry) or even for one of the vet 4s who are a lot more offensively gifted than Swift and would thrive more off Seattle's creative, jump shot making, offense, namely SAR or AW.

Again if I am Seattle, Swift would not be a guy I spend much time thinking about given the whole picture. New Jersey or the Cavs, different story. Thankfully the Cavs have not gone after him. Further, for NJ I think he would be a great fit too, but luckily they can't offer significantly more than we can w/o trading players and they had set their eyes on SAR 1st.

SAR, Walker, Curry (max offer or S&T with VR, another), maybe Chandler (ditto deal), if I Seattle and was willing to spend money, these would be the guys. But outside of them I'd just try to keep what I have VR/RE and try to shore up the back-court.

 

Again, your expectations of Swift are far too high. I highly doubt Seattle would sign Swift with the expectations that they can run their offense through him or that he'll ever draw double teams or create open shots for his teammates. They are not going to expect an all star. He's probably not going to score much more than Radman does for them now (probably around 13 points)

Seattle is not going to make radical changes to their offense with Swift in their lineup. They're still primarily going to run a perimeter oriented offense that plays outside-in. Swift just makes their "in" attack a little better.

He simply adds a little more balance to their attack. He's a player capable of creating his own shot once in a while and someone that gets the majority of his points in the paint. I think you're really underestimating the importance of balance. Having a perimeter attack as well as an inside attack. A team that relies on the 3 ball as much as Seattle does with Radman at the 4 is not going to go far in the playoffs.

Why is it you feel Swift is a great fit for New Jersey, yet a bad fit for Seattle?

I consider both teams to be very similar.

 

I just think off the ball Swift would not work near as well as VR (range shooter, better offensive player) or probably Collison too (real smart about interior position and creating space). Seattle lives a lot on motion and jumpshooting and all their offensive players working in unison. VR fits right in on jumpshooting (Swift doesn't have that). Evans and Forston job is to hang around the rim if doubled off of secondarily, but mostly just crash the board to give the other guys possesions (Swift isn't near as good as these two on the boards). There is some parellel with what Collison does and what Swift would do (look for interior openings), but Collison was a lot more efficient last year (I think smart off the ball and knowing position) and the better rebounder as well.

1st, I think the best fit for Swift is between Yao and Tmac. One, the Houston offsense is not that complicated, with Tmac and Yao controlling things. Second Swift will have to be doubled off constantly sandwiched between them, he will be among the last things opponents D worry about. Swift will be an afterthought, and basically just have to hold his own offensively. There are even some things the Rockets will have to change, as Howard has a consistent midrange and knowledge of the game Swift does not. That said Swift could add an excellent weak side shot blocking and bring in a guy to fill the lane quickly JH just can't, so if he does just OK in the set half curt offense there are lots of other big pluses he brings.

Also I think Cleve is somewhat similar. They have Z as a force in the middle, and tough--defense breaking-- guys on the wing (James/Hughes). Swift should be OK in that scheme in the half court, with the weak side shot blocking and lane filling (particularly on fast break) really helping them a lot. Like Houston, Cleveland also only has one other servicable PF.

NJ is a little different. No big physical Yao or Z in the middle to let Swift really capitalize in the half court. However they are a big time fast breaking team, they have a much simplied half court offense than Seattle (run through Carter as we do with Tmac), have little shot blocking, and basically no quality 4s at all. Swift would be a much bigger upgrade for them, and I think fit better, than in Seattle.

I just think it would be kind of sidewise move for Seattle--Swift gives them some things but they lose other qualities (shooting, rebounding, toughness) versus comparable (and likely cheaper) alternatives.

Now Hou, NJ and Clev--Swift would bring a lot more to the table compared to alternatives. The fact Cleve went for Haslem but not Swift shows there are lots of concerns about him. If Cleve, with more of a need for PF help than Sea, a better fit for what they do (run, simplied offense), and a more complete roster at this point (like I said Seattle has only 2 guard signed) isn't going for him, I can't see Seattle doing so at the costs and risks it would be for them. I guess maybe if they move VR in a S&T (for a guard?), but I really just don't see it.

 

THIS IS JUST LIKE THE BELTRAN SITUATION!!!!

 

Sorry, premature post....he just seems like he is playing with us....he is going for top $$$ and he knows we cant pay him the $$......Swift will more than likely be going to the Sonics or Nets. We are not going to get him....I hate to be so pessimistic, but he is playing the music and we are dancing to the beat. Give him an ultimatum and move on...for example, CD can say "hey, we need to know by X date and thats it"....that way they can move to other free agents. Yeah, thats pretty clear...but CD hasnt learned from the Astros mistakes...then again, Tavares is on track for the rookie of the year award.

 

These isn't baseball, and the Rockets org is not the Stros.

Until other FA 4s start falling off the board--Walker, Marshall, SAR, Evans, VladR--there is absolutely no reason to have an ultimatum.

The official signing period hasn't even started. Take a chill pill guys, free agency has so far unfolded quite well with the big money teams going for guards and the under the cap teams going after the PFs.

 

Not necessarily. With Beltran, we could have gone after guys like JD Drew, Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Lee, or even Moises Alou. Given that Lee is the only one thats really healthy right now. If you look in the NBA, none of the big guys have really been locked up yet. It's been the Hughes' and Mobley's and Redd's. Swift, Marshall and even SAR are still up for grabs. Swift is in his mid-20 as are McGrady Yao. What else does he need? (Besides money )

 

New Jersey actually plays at a slower pace than Seattle. They are ranked second to last in the league in points per game and 25th in the league in field goal attempts. Not what you would expect from a team that is a big time fast breaking team.

...and Seattle runs their offense through Ray Allen.

I think if anything Radmanovic would be a better fit in New Jersey, because they already have great athletes that can slash and make great acrobatic plays (Carter and Jefferson). But they have no outside shooting.

Seattle, on the other hand, already has great outside shooting, but they don't have any athletic big men that can get to the basket. Their perimeter players spend the majority of their time on the perimeter taking jumpshots.

They had one great athletic slasher last season (Antonio Daniels), but it looks like they're losing him. Which is why Swift makes so much sense for them. I just look at the ease in which Daniels was able to get to the basket last season, with Allen, Lewis, and Ridnour able to spread the floor for him, and I think Swift would have a field day playing there. So many wide open lanes for him to drive into and get dunks.

 

Ray Allen is a different kind of player than Yao, Tmac, Carter, Lebron, Hughes, etc. Allen thrives when the whole team is working in unison, picks, motion, etc. You can't just park him somewhere, dump him the ball, and let him create. It is much harder (requires more BB smarts) to play with him (and Ridnour) than those other guys I mention.

The Nets have zero shot blocking and no interior defense. That is where Swift would really help. Perhaps SAR would help them a lot more offensively, which is why they are targeting him, but Swift helps them other ways.

Also, this is just Chad Ford, but a couple of observations.

Couple of things. No mention of Swift an the Sonics. They did mention Walker as part of a S&T with VR (I think Walker is much better fit for their offense as an inside-outside player with good passing skills who would really provide them something different than what they have in their other 4s) and Jasikevicus (they need another guard). Still I don't think the Sonics get another 4 unless it is a S&T with VR.

Another post suggests Jasikevicus is all but a Cav. This is great. This should take them out of the PF running. I was worried the contract they offered to Haslem could snag Swift or SAR, they can't offer that contract or any other guy for over the MLE any more I believe. Great news. Curious the Cavs has no interest in Swift all free agent season, I though Hou and Cleve would be the best fits for him.

Overall I think we are in there for Swift or one of the alternatives (Walker/SAR/Marshall). Personally, I want Swift 1st than SAR than Walker than DM. I think the news looks great!!!

 

! Rockets chances of landing Swift have just risen!!