[Fox' Berman] Swift deciding between Rockets, Nets and Sonics

I don't think 13/7/2 would be optimistic at all. I think those are realistic numbers when you consider his production in 21 minutes. Give him starter minutes and his production should improve. I doubt 13/7 would have Atlanta or New Orleans licking their chops, but as a 3rd option on a team like Houston or Seattle, those would be very good numbers. And I never said I view Swift as a cog, just someone who they can go to occasionally to get points inside, so they don't rely on their outside shooting so much.

I also fail to see how Radmanovic playing 30 minutes a game compared to Swifts 21 helps your argument. He plays significantly more minutes, yet he doesn't score significantly more points. Plus, he doesn't have nearly the same presence on defense as Swift does.

You also have to consider who Swift has been playing behind the past 4 years (Gasol) compared to who Radmanovic has been playing behind the past 4 years.

In your opinion, do you think Seattle should just stick with the exact same team they had last year?

I think if they stick with the same team, while losing Daniels and James, they are going to be passed up by a lot of teams, probably fighting for the last playoff spot. They need change or they will be stuck in mediocrity forever.

 

Like you said it's subjective Desert Scar, but I'd much rather offer Swift a longterm contract than Radmonovic. Not to mention they'd probably expect Swift to help them at center with their loss Jerome James. The article not only states that Radmon considers himself a 6 year 90 mill player but he ALSO wants the starting job. He's one dimensional. He's a great shooter and nothing else. There's no upside to him, he's just a great shooter. You don't want one trick ponies to be in your starting lineup, especially since Reggie Evans was the starter last year when they had success. Seattle could sign Swift with Radmon's money and still be able to re-sign Evans. Sure you may say there's redundancy there, but I think Radmonovic plain sucks

 

I agree. Until VR shows he can rebound and defend, then he sure ain't worth no 90 mill. If we don't get Swift, we would be best off with AW because AW has the 3 ball plus he will go in the paint and rebound for you and he can handle the ball. AW is the next best fit. VR isn't even close.

 

NJ has a 4.9M trade exception. If Memphis just wants to clear up the cap space, they'll do a sign-and-trade for the TE. In that case, Stro gets his 6-th year money. I heard Memphis's 1st priority is saving money ... doesn't look too good for the Rockets. hopefully NJ can work out a deal with SAR and Portland..

 

The TE doesn't help memphis anymore than just letting him go for free. If we offer to take someone else and give him expiring contracts, it would be much better than what NJ is offering.

 

Here is what the article says VR is asking for:

He's clearly not asking for a max contract. From the tone of the article, and the fact they are discussing his role on the team, it seems likely he will return to Seattle. Though he overlaps with Rashard & Ray Allen on offense, he compliments Reggie Evans and Fortson at the PF position. If they add Swift and let VR go, none of their PFs will be able to step outside. And it's not like they will run a lot of plays for Swift down low.

VR is one-dimensional, but he brings a dimension our team badly needs. I've said a lot on SS's (lack of) skills already and won't repeat them here. Again, it's probably all moot because VR will return to the Sonics.

 

ur right. But Stro and his agent would like to have a 6-y contract. If Memphis decides to do them a favor ....

 

Even though would love for the Rox to sign SS, I think it is very doubtful that we will get him. With very rare exception, PLAYERS GO WITH THE MONEY. He will sign with the team that can pay him the most, bottom line. From what I understand, that won't be Houston; furthermore, it doesn't seem that Memphis will be willing to do a sign-and-trade with a divisional opponent.

I hope I'm wrong, but I wouldn't recommend geting your hopes up

 

We will just have to disagree, I think VR < risk than Swift (VR is younger and has fewer character issues), and has more upside, my opinion of course.
As far as him being shooter only, I think he is decent in other phases too. Plus being a shooter can have its place, just look at Dirk and Peja.

Further, I don't see Swift as much of an upgrade of the 4s Seattle has been playing. Sure, better shot blocker, but not near the rebounder of some (Evans, Forstan) nor the perimeter shooter as others (Radm). Plus he has those toughness/commitment issues that blew up with Jerome James for them. Just not a lot to be gained relative to the risk.

Also, Seattle doesn't need to role the dice, they were one shot away from taking the champs to a game 7. They are also young and had injuries--lots of reasons they could be in better shape next year. Further if I did want to "role the dice" rather than risk be stagnent, it wouldn't be Swift. I'd try something like VR + Fortston + 1st for Curry or Chandler, or a lesser move for NO's Magloire. Swift is not enough better than what they have at the 4 to make a difference and isn't really a regular 5 either (why he could not beat out that other mediocre Memphis center).

In summary, Swift would have a much bigger impact on the Rockets, Nets or Cavs--teams without bunches of decent big men and 4s in particular, than the Sonics.

 

I also have to disagree with you. The addition of Swift will be mainly for defense. He is extremely athletic. He will be a great shot blocker with Yao. He can clog up the weakside and defend the pick and roll. Forget Swift scoring 18-24 Pts per game. Swift's defense will allow Yao to stay in the game and not get into foul trouble. We need both T-Mac and Yao on the floor for this team to win. Swift can also finish low post plays and on the break. If a talented player gets on the right team with the right system, then that player can have a greater impact on the game. No, Swift will not be a star player, but he can be a great defender that can score. Sounds like a Van Gundy guy to me.

 

Honestly, as a PF, Playing with Kidd will improve his value but less chance to win. Playing with T-mac and Yaoming will have more chance to win, but will lose his value. He will do more dirty work in Rockets.
At this age, Win is not the big point for Swift. Bucks and potential value are main points.
I expect he will play with Rockets, but if he is a selfish guy, go to NETs and give us SAR.

 

DS, I totally agree. Why does Seattle need to 'roll the dice' here? They already have a nice core of PFs. They can keep Evans on the cheap since he is restricted. They love Collison and they like Radman. They have two young Cs in R Swift and Petro. Pretty loaded really.

Keep in mind that Seattle is one of those teams that takes a HARD look at their finances. They are a rather conservative team in terms of spending. With that said, why would they potentially "overspend" for Swift when they had similarly comparative options in Radman and Evens where they knew what they had and probably dont have to overspend?

 

Talent-wise, he may not be a huge upgrade over Radmanovic and Evans, but fit-wise, he gives the Sonics what they need. He adds a different dimension to their team that they don't have. They don't have any big men with any semblance of an offensive game. They don't have any big men that can block shots. It's the same reason why the Rockets want Swift so badly. He's not a huge upgrade talent wise over Juwan Howard. But he would be a much better fit than Howard.

Why would Swift need to be a great rebounder when the Sonics already have great rebounders on their team (Collison, Fortson)?

Why would Swift need to be a great shooter when the Sonics already have great shooters on their team (Allen, Lewis, Ridnour)?

 

One thing I'm not understanding here. If you feel the Sonics are already loaded at the 4 with RSwift, Petro, Collison, and Fortson. How would re-signing 2 power forwards (Radman and Evans) help alleviate that glut more than just signing one power forward (Swift)?

 

They may not resign BOTH Radman and Evans. But chances are whoever they resign will 1) be for LESS than what they offer Swift and 2) it will be a known quantity to them versus Swift who is a bit more of an unkown.

Again, dont discount the "fiscally conservative" nature of the Sonics here.

The Sonics want to upgrade, but they want to upgrade cheaply. That's always been their nature.

 

I think the problem with signing only one is that both players are very one dimensional and both need the other to balance each other out. I kind of view them the same way I viewed Cato and Mo Taylor. Evans gets rebounds and plays d, but your team will be playing 4 vs 5 on the offensive end. Radman is a nice player to have on offense, but he's soft, a bad defender and a bad rebounder (4.6 rebounds in 30 minutes, that's worse than Taylor).

I question if either one is the starter the Sonics need at the 4. Collison at the 5 and Evans at the 4 leaves the front line very limited offensively. Radman at the 4 and Lewis at the 3 is very redundant.

How much do you think it would take to sign Swift?

I doubt they would need to break the bank. Most of the teams they are competing against for Swift are teams over the cap, that have only the MLE to offer. I'm pretty sure it would cost less to sign Swift than it would to sign both Radman and Evans.

 

I have been thinking about it, and I cant remember the last time the Sonics got a high priced FA like we are talking about with Swift. The Sonics fans on the RealGM board seem to think it is much more likley that the Sonics go after someone like Stephen Hunter to fill their shotblocker roll than go after Swift. My guess is the Sonics will resign Evans to a modest deal, sign Hunter and then Radman will take the one year qualifying offer (like Swift, Kandi). The Sonics will then look to fill holes at backup PG and SG as I am sure Daniels is gone and chances are Flip Murray will leave as well leaving only Wilkens.

 

I think Swift will be a Rocket simply by putting the pieces of reports together.

Ever since he visited Houston for two days, the Knicks have gone in other directions going after Walker, Kwame Brown and now James. The only other teams since that have talked to him (and are the only other two teams in the "running") are NJ & Seattle which both made the call to him. The teams made the first contact.

Now, I know there is probably more going on behind the scenes that what published reports have stated, but it really seems as if Swift and his agent haven't been out searching for other places but that Seattle and NJ are using him as leverage against their own FA targets.

We also had the report that said he was to give the Rockets an answer two weeks ago early that week. But, though we didn't hear anything, there was no indication that it was a "no" either obviously.

Then there was TMac confidentally and excitedly talking about Swift joining the team in the media.

I may be looking too much into these things, but to me, all the signs point to Swift being a Rocket.

Who knows, maybe he did tell them two weeks ago that he is theirs to lose and all this time has been the two teams (and maybe a 3rd) working a S&T.

Grizz wanted a center, then how about...

Houston trades: Ward/James/1st get: Swift
Memphis trades: Cardinal/Swift (S&T)/Wells get: James/Ward/Ratliff
Portland trades: Ratliff get: Wells/Cardinal/1st

Just a thought.

 

I like Swift. But the problem is with his noggin. Not just one coach has commented in the past about his slowness to "learn the system." Although I would have to believe that Dawson, JVG, et. al., are aware of this and know more about it than the rest of us, it still nags at me.

By the way, can he play the 3 at all? I have never known him to do so in the past, but he is very quick for a big man.

 

Slick Rick, I was arguing Swift makes more sense for us, and a few other teams like NJ or the Cavs. I think sandwitched between Yao and Tmac is the ideal place for Swift. But for the Sonics, with lots of servicable 4s and 5s (including young prospects) and bigger needs in the backcourt--just doesn't make a lot of sense.

As far as the Rockets, I don't think our offense will be better with Swift than Howard. JH is a better midrange shooter, and understands the game more. But we are a better defensive team, and much more athletic teams (up and down the court) with Swift. I see JH and Swift come close to pretty much evenly splitting PF duties (with Swift also picking up some back-up C minutes), each bringing something different. We need Swift a lot more because JH is our only decent PF, the Sonics have a bunch of decent 4s. Yes Swift is a little different than other Sonics, but not near the degree he is different and an upgrade from what the Rockets have after Howard.

1st, because VR is a multi-position, multi-threat player. You put him at the 4 or Lewis at the 3, Allen and Ridnour have tremendous weapons to make us of. They become a tremendously difficult team to stop. As far as the inside, like I said I think Colison is better off the ball and getting good interior position than Swift. I think you really overrate Swift's half court offensive game relative to VR and the half court potential of Collison (who was effective in the playoffs off the ball and getting position). As far as on defense, neither Swift nor Vlad are good 1 on 1 defenders, Swift brings weak side shot blocking, and yes that is a big plus. Collison is probably the better man to man defender among these guys against power 4s and power 5s, and is an OK weak side shot blocker. Lewis, though not a 4, isn’t a bad weak side shot blocker either.

Evans they could let go. He is a younger and better than Forston, but it will depend on cost. Evans was the best rebounder in the league last year and gives the Sonics a lot more possessions that Swift would.

Overall, what Swift would give them is an upgrade over weak side shot blocking (though Collison and Lewis are OK, and their young Cs might contribute as well) and more athletic guy to get up and down the court. That is at a major cost of rebounding and physicality (Evans, Forston, Collison) and half court set offense (VRad, Collison). When you consider the next point I don’t think it is worth it.

Well the Sonics would have to offer substantially more than our MLE (5/28) or NJ’s offer 6/37 to make money drive the decision. So we are talking 5 years, 35 mi to maybe 6 years 40 mil minimum to get his attention, something like that.

Also consider VRad and Evans are restricted. Unless a team like the Hornets come in for VRad, 5/28 is the best he will get. A total bargain given he is a good young versatile player with upside and few questions (character, work ethic), and Seattle can just match. VR at 5/28 is a much more tradable and valuable contract than like Swift at 6/40mil. They are much more likely to get under-market, cheap contracts, for their own restricted FA than another teams URFA.

Hunter would be a reasonable solution as well. As a stopgap before Petro and R. Swift contribute, would be much cheaper (3 year 12 mil?) and much more of a legit 5 than S. Swift. They could probably get VR and Hunter for the cost of S. Swift.