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Former Astros Tracking Thread

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by torque, Apr 4, 2016.

  1. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    If you assume baseball isn't a zero sum game and offense is all that matters, sure. One may disagree with the defensive value that Straw is providing, but weighting offense and defensive stats to create a WAR calculation is not an inherent limitation (I do agree defensive numbers have some error, but WAR calculations are still better than fan, media, and team evaluations based on observation alone).
     
  2. Nook

    Nook Member

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    WAR is certainly better than a "hunch" or the opinion of someone that is not trained extensively in baseball and overall it is a good measure but it does have some very real limitations, and Straw is such an example.
     
  3. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    In your opinion, Straw is an example. As long as Jeter is allowed to keep his gold gloves, I'm not going to trust that people even expertly trained in evaluating defense can adequately evaluate a player's defensive value better than WAR on a message board. WAR isn't perfect, but there is a reason a lot of teams appear to be following it (it being their internal versions). There is a reason the Astros have has a plethora of defense first CFs the past 2 years...they help a team win and some teams still don't value them accurately enough (i.e., they are easy and cheap to acquire versus CFs that provide the same value except more with offense). Even when he was with the Astros, my eye test suggested he would be average CF (despite a bad early run in 2021 that nearly everyone on this board freaked out about) even if/when his offense regressed. I'm not surprised in the least that when his offense tanked this year that WAR suggests his defense is still keeping him an average player while being 35% below average offensively.

    Also, Cleveland's total WAR suggests they should have won 88 games. Considering Cleveland won 92, had a Pythagorean of 89, and Base Runs of 88, I'm not seeing evidence that Cleveland's defense is being over rated.

    You can keep believing that Straw is an example of WAR being wrong. I will keep believing my eyes from last year, DRS, UZR, OAA, and him making a more outs than anyone else in CF (15 more than the average CF with same innings played) that he made a big impact defensively.

    It is really hard for a CF as good defensively as Straw that bats over 0.200 to be a terrible player. Even if you think he's more just good at CF defense, terrible seems overly harsh.
     
    #3643 Joe Joe, Oct 18, 2022
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2022
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  4. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    On a side note, I've probably been overly harsh with Meyers this season. He's run down a lot of balls in the OF even though his arm allowed a few people to advance (granted, some would have advanced more if he didn't make the catch). I don't think he should have played Chas or was starter quality this season. It just is not Meyers's fault he got hurt and hasn't recovered.
     
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  5. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Meyers could be a breakout candidate next season if he’s fully healthy and I still think he will hover between 2-4 fwar/yr over the next 4-5 seasons if he stays healthy and plays full time. I think Click views him as is version of Kiermaier.
     
  6. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    Meyers is better than Straw at getting jumps and running down balls.

    He also should be league average or maybe slightly better with a bat which is a rare combination.

    However his arm was significantly weaker than average even last year.

    Nobody's perfect.

    I am expecting a big season from Meyers next year but feel the Astros will just havevto live with an extra runner or two taking an extra base

    FYI Chas isn't much better and was actually almost exactly the same as Jake throwing in 2021.
     
  7. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    If Meyers is a 2 WAR player despite WAR's limitations, and Chas regresses to a full time 2WAR player and is played full time despite WAR's limitations, the Astros will be fine in the OF next year.
     
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  8. donkeypunch

    donkeypunch Contributing Member

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  9. Nook

    Nook Member

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    No, he was a terrible starting center fielder in 2022. The league has had a lot of defense first centerfielders and a vast majority of them that cannot hit do not last long as starters.

    As a defensive replacement, Straw has a place but he isn’t a starter as exposed by his sub .300 OBP and an amazing .273 slugging.

    Jeter and having Golden Gloves has nothing to do with it, as a lot of scouts and coaches (and some reporters) knew he was garbage defensively. It was a popularity contest.

    You say it’s hard for Straw to be a terrible starting centerfielder with his glove if he hits over .200 ….. well I’ll counter it’s hard to be anything than a terrible starting centerfielder when you have an OPS hovering around .550.
     
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  10. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    Agree. Jose Siri was outstanding in the field before we traded him and I wanted no part of him starting for the Stros. He was that bad offensively.
     
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  11. BlindHog

    BlindHog Member

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    Some days I can be found out standing in my field too, but it does not make me good at baseball.
     
  12. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    Any regular needs to be able to have an OPS over .600, IMO, regardless of how good they are defensively. And if they aren't giving you a .700 OPS, you're still looking for an upgrade.
     
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  13. lnchan

    lnchan Sugar Land Leonard
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    Which ex-Astro has been helping the team the most during the 2022 postseason:
    A.
    [​IMG]

    B.
    [​IMG]
     
  14. jayfree

    jayfree Member

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    H
    Hopefully, C. Gerrit Cole after tonight.
    [​IMG]
     
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  15. ac in austin

    ac in austin Contributing Member

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    I actually think you’re both kinda right. Well not really…Nook is right…Straw sucks. I believe in WAR and defensive metrics (at least to measure defensive ability player vs player) but I just don’t think being a great fielder means you can be one of the worst hitter in the majors and still be good. You need to be a hell of a lot better than Straw in the field…Adam Everett, Andrelton Simmons or Early Andrew Jones maybe. It’s definitely a bad argument to use the Astros as a testament to defense first center fielders being as valuable as WAR claims since they keep trading those guys.
     
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  16. mvpcrossxover

    mvpcrossxover Member

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    Who gets a ring from the 2022 roster?

    Jake Odorizzi (lol)
    Jose Siri
     
  17. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Any player who played in a game for the Astros in 2022 will get a ring.
     
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  18. mvpcrossxover

    mvpcrossxover Member

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    Taylor Jones? Lol

    Niko goodrum? LOL
     
  19. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Yes
     
  20. Qan

    Qan Member

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    Yes all of them
     

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