For all you who think we are going to be a 4 or 5 seed

I didn't read all of the posts in this thread, so forgive me if this has been pointed out.

It's not like the Rockets are in the same position as the Miami Heat. Trading for Shaq means that they better get some pieces around him ASAP. They have a very narrow window of opportunity. I'd rather be the seventh seed this year than overpay for a mediocre player. None of the players we could have picked up would have made us the favorite for the title next year, even if they could help us jump one or two spots in the standings. This team will get some playoff experience either way. And with our two stars in their mid-20's, we can afford not to panic just yet. If we can't pick up the right piece(s) at the right price(s) this offseason, then let's be patient. It's not over by a longshot.

 

Thank you, worth quoting. Sometimes you have to repeat things for it to sink in through certain thick heads.

 

Cato's D is overrated. He played only 25 minutes and averaged 1.4 blks. I'm not gonna fret over losing 1 blk a game with Howard that can be made up by T-Mac's effort. We had a defensive breakdown last year with Cato out because we had no depth, not because Cato was a defensive monster. Cato is nice but I don't think it's easy to trade him for Juan Howard straight up. A 17/7 guy is harder to come by as opposed to a 6/7 one. An additional advantage in getting Howard is that our depth at the pf is more solidified.

The Rockets've added 20 more points of firepower in McGrady, Lue and Howard. They've also added a two headed monster in Yao-TMac.

Phoenix still can't play D when they've upgraded their firepower significantly. Advantage: Rockets

Denver had a significant upgrade with KMart, but not to the extent of Rockets upgrade. KMart was looking better with Kidd. KMart over Nene is not so much as T-Mac and Lue over Mobley and Francis. Advantage: Rockets

Jazz has no go to player, just a bunch of Pistons wannabes.

Meanwhile, the Lakers dropped off a lot without Shaq, the Mavs dropped off remarkably without Nash. The Kings lost a little chemistry without Divac.

The bottomline is I'd be really worried now if we kept the same lineup. We had a fundamentally flawed team and replaced it with a team that's flawed mainly in the bench depth.

Not mention we are just a little over a week into FA signing.

It will be a tight race, but the fifth spot is attainable with the current squad IMO. If the Rockets make good acquistions I see us cracking the top 4.

 

Hmm -- just re-read your sig and it made me sad. Will Brent Barry be there all year, as a reminder of what might have been?

 

Exactly! We might have been pushed out of the playoffs. Imagine this board if that had happened.

 

I might be a complainer but it just doesn't feel so good to me that 3/5 of our starting lineups won a combined 21 games.

 

San Antonio
Minnesota
Sacramento

These are clearly the class of the conference with Sac being on the border. San Antonio is probably the best of the best and Minnesota, given its run last year is right in there. Sac is on the border and a lot will depend on their injury status. Ostertag should make up for the loss of Divac.

LA Lakers
Houston
Dallas

These three are in the middle of the pack. You cannot count LA out with their young, talented core. Kobe is one of the best 3 or 4 players in the league and Rudy T. will make them better defensively. Dallas still isn't sure who they want to be and this offseason sucked for them, but they have enough firepower to play with anyone. The Rockets have one of the best 5 players in the league and the second best center. Yes, they are short in a few areas, but no moreso than LA or Dallas.

Utah
Denver
Memphis
Phoenix

These are developing teams that are young and/or up-and-coming. Denver and Utah seem to really be going in the right direction with a young core. Denver has a star in Anthony, which will help them progress quickly. Utah has a dominat front court. Phoenix gave Nash too much and, as usual, they will play ZERO defense. They'll be fun to watch and Stoudamire's a stud, but they have a ways to go. Memphis, while a great TEAM, doesn't have any go-to scorer and can't play well enough in the half court to be a serious contender, though they should be a playoff contender.

Seattle
New Orleans
Portland

These are teams on the downslide. Seattle is a wreck and New Orleans picked a bad year to switch conferences. Portland, though still loaded with talent, misses Rasheed and has yet to really address their overall direction. They have work ahead of them.

Golden State
LA Clippers

Bottom o' the barrell. Nuff said.

--

When you evaluate the teams at the top, you really have to look at three key areas:

Defense
Chemistry
Go-To Players

I'll rank the top ten above in each category based on where I think they WILL be.

Defense

1. San Antonio
2. Minnesota
3. Houston
4. Utah
5. LA
6. Memphis
7. Sacramento
8. Denver
9. Dallas
10. Phoenix

Chemistry

1. Minnesota
2. San Antonio
3. Sacramento
4. Utah
5. Houston
6. Memphis
7. Denver
8. LA
9. Phoenix
10. Dallas

Best Go-To Player(s)

1. LA
2. San Antonio
3. Minnesota
4. Houston
5. Sacramento
6. Denver
7. Dallas
8. Utah
9. Phoenix
10. Memphis

So, if you average those out, you get this:

1. San Antonio
2. Minnesota
3. Houston
4. LA
5. Sacramento
6. Utah
7. Denver
8. Memphis
9. Dallas
10. Phoenix

Now, that doesn't mean I think it will end that way. I think it is close. I actually would make it more like this:

1. San Antonio
2. Minnesota
3. Sacramento
4. Utah
5. Houston
6. LA
7. Denver
8. Dallas
9. Memphis
10. Phoenix

But, that's IMO.

 

I'll take a stab.

San Antonio - better than us

Memphis - about the same IMO. They won more games last year, but floundered in the playofs. We have certainly upgraded since then. They definately hit a hot streak last year. They might be better than us, but they might not be.

Sacramento -probably better, but I think this is a team on the verge of crumbling. Their window is closing fast, and I could see a few injuries puting them into a hurt, then everyone bickering or giving up. I think Vlade was a bif part of their heart. As I recall they lost some end of year games that were important to their seedings. Not a good sign. Besides, if Webber is backa ll year, that will really hurt them Probably better than us, but not a lock.

Dallas - a playoff team, but frankly they weren't that good last year and losing Nash will hurt. Emotionally as much as anything else. Stackhouse sucks as a team player and so does Antoine Walker. Again, probably better than us, but not a lock.

Denver - We were better than them last year. They are a young team on the rise and added a key player in Kmart. Rockets, also a young team on the rise and we also improved ourselves. More than they did in my opinion. I say we finish ahead of them again.

Lakers - Hard to say where they will finish. Still have that champions swagger till it gets beat out of them. I think that is worth a lot. But do a player by player analysis. Kobe and Tmac roughly equal, Yao is better than Odom, Howard & JJ better than Grant and Butler. Malone and Divac are nice, but old and one bad sprain away from a season ending injury. Additionally they have a new coach (breaks my heart) and my be dealing with a super selfish Kobe. I say their chances for home court advantage are about the same as ours. Again, they may finish ahead of us, but they may not. Lakers are the hardest team to predict in my opinion They could go deep in the playoffs. They could implode and not make the playoffs. Pretty much everybody else on your list has to make the post season.

Minnesota - better than us.

Phoenix - improved, but they were way worse than us last year and did not improve as much as we did. They have a shot at the playoffs but not much more.
Utah improved a lot, probably get the last slot in my mind. Boozer is real plus and getting back (the injurd forward - I am an old man and my mind is like a sieve) will be a huge boost. I think Okur will be the next Ostertag. They are not better than the Rox.
Seattle is on the outside looking in
New Orleans - welcome to the west and being on the outside looking in.
Portland - did n't make playoffs last year, no major improvements in a more difficult conference- not much chance.



Don't forget how many games we beat ourselves last year. Take those away and we are a solid 50 wins. I think (hope) our current team is not a beat yourself team. I know our coach isn't.

I can really see us finishing anywhere from 3rd to 7th. Split the difference and we are 5th. A few breaks for us or against our compitition, and we may squeak out a home court advantage.

EDIT: Jeff posted while I ws writting this. HE summed up my opinions well, and is an easier read.

 

Denver and SA are good, but you think the SUNS improved !?!?!?

well - lets have a look. First they traded away Marbury (when they were playing poorly) they replaced him with Nash (older, not a strong a player)

they will lose Q to the Clips (who HAVE to match now)

... they we one of the worse records in the league... how did they improve

 

5 rings? 3 rings

 

We will miss the playoff unless Yao has a breakout year. The west are too stacked.

 

Can everyone have a little patience please? I know Jeff said the same thing in his thread but it bears repeating. Everybody's in agreement that we have enough talent to be a 6-8 seed, but are we a 2-4 seed? Well, I the answer to that is obvious, and that answer is NO, until proven otherwise.

I'm not saying we need to make a big splash trade or signing to make up for this. In fact, I'm saying exactly the opposite. We already have plenty of talent (we compare pretty well to some of the Kobe-Shaq champions who had (wow!) Rick Fox as their next best player). The reason we can't be declared a high seed yet is that the key to moving up, once you have the talent, is system/chemistry building.

Think about the 1st year we won the championship. Our roster didn't change much from the previous year. The only significant addition was Sam Cassell, who back then was a role player.The previous year, when we started to make our move, the only significant addition was Horry -- another role player. All respect to the Chucky Brown fan club, but there was no grade A signing that pushed us over the top.

The main reason we were a championship contender the first time was that we finally perfected the inside-out system that turned Dream into the most feared player in the league (or at least right up there with MJ). This system was so good the league had to redesign the rules to stop it.

What we need to concentrate on now is building our system. We should play a while with our two stars and learn the nuances. Should TMac supply the entry pass to Yao? Or should he stay on the opposite side for the cross-court pass? Do we need a pick and roll point (Kenny Smith) or a spot-up point (Matt Maloney)? Do we need a scoring PF (Otis Thorpe) or a defender/rebounder (Herrera)? Let what comes out of our games dictate the role players we sign.

 

I just might.

And also, I'm still being hopeful that Boki has a great preseason and first season, and gives JJ some rest by getting some starter minutes.

 

In response to the original idea, the Astros have a superstar(s) at nearly EVERY position and are still the biggest disgrace in baseball. The Rockets have superstars at 2/5 positions.

 

Hence, why there's more chance at well blending or "meshing", chemistry with the Rocket's than with the Astros.
Not to mention, we have a list of role players that are pretty gritty and really hustle at their roles, aka motivation. Which is something the Astros are completely deprived of.

Speaking of motivation, T-mac has had it in abundance ever since he got traded and witnessed that press conference. And a 'superstar' player motivated in a basketball team, who can control the offensive, and defensive side of the game at anytime, has more effect. Than say, Roger Clemens going into the season motivated, a player who can only control the defensive side of things.

 

Not to mention, only plays every five days.

 

Agreed. T-Mac and Yao are key pieces but not the ONLY pieces they need to become true contenders in the West. It would be the cruelest of all twists of fate should the Rockets be forced to experience a season just like that of the Astros...

 

Never gonna happen. I know he meant to express a different prespective. But, in all reality, Baseball and Basketball are WORLDS apart.

On another note, our 'superstars' are 23 and 25.

Astros 'superstars' are in their late thirties and early forties.

Like I said, NEVER gonna happen, so relax. Things are gonna be better.

WORLDS apart my friend, WORLDS apart.