FiveThirtyEight: The Good, The Bad And The WTF Of NBA Free Agency

It's not hard to imagine the narrative for each of these had they gone the other way...

1. Rockets overpaid immensely for an aging player, only to bring back a roster that can't beat a healthy Warriors team anyway. Now they're in luxury tax hell for nothing. Bad move!

2. Rockets dip into their MLE for a player who A) has a serious injury concern, and B) ultimately proved to be expendable in the playoffs anyway. Their flexibility in the buyout market and in signing Melton to a more preferable contract is out the window. Bad move!

3. Rockets miss out on a chance to add a third star and dynamic scorer for the league minimum! When you're chasing the Warriors, you have to take those kinds of chances when they present themselves. Bad move!

 

The surface level narrative is: Rockets were able to compete with the Warriors because of their improved team defense overall which was highlighted by the swingman that were switchable.

That's great. But that isn't the entire story. Ariza's offense was shot. Luc didn't play. We don't know the status of Luc's shoulder going forward. Rockets are going to add Carmelo/Ennis/MCW/Melton. And Carmelo's offensive dimension could be very valuable to 1) resting Harden/CP throughout the season lessoning injuries and keeping them fresh for the playoffs (Ripple Effects) and 2) giving the Rockets more dimensions offensively in the playoffs versus stand still shooters. There is value there.

There is a reason the Rockets went out and got CP to begin with. There is a reason the Lakers are talking up about multiple creators and LeBron was talking about that in the Finals interviews. You don't just beat GSW with defense. It is with defense AND shot creators to keep them off balance.

Context and Nuance.

 

We had the resources to sign all of them. Ariza, Luc, Melo, Ennis. Even MORE wing D. And scoring.

 

The Rockets “lose” every offseason. Unless you follow the team closely, Morley looks like a bumbling idiot grasping at straws unless he beats LA for Dwight Howard. Fortunately, building an NBA team is not actually like building a Yu-Gi-Oh deck.

 

Ennis doesn't sign if Ariza is still here and we know that executing a trade where we take in salary with a player like Jimmy Butler is much tougher with Ariza making so much.

Also, Ariza will be a buyout option once Pheonix inevitably fades. Suns save a decent amount.. that's why it's important to save the MLE. The larger number helps another team to save money

 

They don't give the Larry O'Brien trophy to the team that makes the quickest or loudest moves in the off-season.

Morally takes a prudent, pragmatic approach to roster improvement and it's working. Some folks around here need to quit doubting.

 

Rockets are champs and losing the offseason as well as losing post game shows.

 

Agree, but not if Ariza was leaning towards $15M from the Suns. We don't know his true disposition at the time of the signing or what the Rockets actually offered him, but it seems safe to assume that as soon as $15M was offered, we didn't have the resources (e.g., cap flexibility) to sign him and keep improving the team.

 

theres no reason to buyout ariza. not sure why people are running with that silly cf's rumor.

 

BUT BUT BUT... if the Warriors had Iggy... they would have won in 5.

 

The Suns offered that $15M one minute after the FA signing period began, and Trevor jumped on it without hesitation.

This was never a choice for the Rockets to make. There was NO way he was going to re-sign with the Rockets if Phoenix makes that offer.