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[FiveThirtyEight] CARMELO projections 2016

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by digitallinh, Jul 8, 2016.

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  1. digitallinh

    digitallinh Member

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    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/

    Below is how right they were last season...

    [​IMG]

    Our team sucks according to them.

    Harden : 15.1 WAR
    Capela : 2.0
    Ariza : 5.5
    Ryan Anderson : 0.7
    Beverley : 3.5
    Eric Gordon : 1.1
    Brewer : - 1
    Montejunas : - 0.7
    Nene : 1.3
    Beasley : - 0.3
     
  2. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    I am guessing the Rockets have a different projection system. Otherwise, they just spent $130M for 2 guys who are a combined 1.8 games over replacement-level (i.e. scrub) player.
     
  3. HayesIsBack

    HayesIsBack Member

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    Projection based on Anderson and Gordon on the Pelicans. But with a different fit and utilisation, should be different here.

    But I wouldnt be optimisitc in thinking we'll get to 55 wins or anywhere near there.
     
  4. peleincubus

    peleincubus Member

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    that's exactly what i noticed. wow
     
  5. digitallinh

    digitallinh Member

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    To be fair except for GSW, every team overspent for wins this past offseason. It comes down to matter of degree, and whether or not the player has a chance of increasing his WAR over the life of the contract, basically potential. A good number from them I like is

    "5-Year Market Value"

    I don't mind the signings so much if the player had a chance of getting better. I have a hard time seeing the two guys we signed actually improving, but you never know.

    Anyway, some other notables

    Mozgov : 0.6, 1.6 Million 5 year value
    Durant: 14.1, 227M
    Horford: 8.9, 104M
    Marvin Williams : 6.1, 55M
     
  6. digitallinh

    digitallinh Member

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    I strongly dislike the signings, mainly because in 3 years, Anderson and Gordon's contracts might be toxic either due to not being very good or injury (and taking up like 30% of our cap)... And Harden will just bounce for a better situation.

    I'm thinking the Rockets win 45-50 games, we can get over 50 towards 55 if we somehow turn into a top 15 defense, but that's gonna require Capela becoming a stud.
     
  7. mac2yao

    mac2yao Member

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    Easily the most brainless acquisition of the off-season. Easily beating overpays for players like Crabbe or Turner.
     

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