http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2014-nba-preview-the-rise-of-the-warriors/ Five Thirty Eight (the website founded by Nate Silver) has the Rockets as the #8 seed finishing with a 45-37 record.
meh thats better than 3/4 of the predictions i see, if anything we should be celebrating it also the say ariza is an elite defender but dont give him the symbol on the chart the chart also assumes no play has improved from last season and [plays the exact same
they have dallas as a higher % chance of winning the title than okc... ................... ' Cisco isn't our backup SF, neither is Adrien our backup PF, so i mean sure, if they don't even know what our roster is going to look like, this is the same record witjh James, Dwight and some vets + kids as James Harden and a bunch of kids. What I'd really like is someone to tabulate all the WC predictions and compare them at the end of the season.
Not really sure how they came to their WAR rankings. If I'm not mistaken I have seen their WAR rankings before and they had Harden somewhere around 16 in the past.
I found what I was remembering. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lebron-james-shouldnt-stay-in-miami-or-go-to-cleveland/ Not sure exactly what the difference is between war and allocated wins.
allocated wins is much like pelton's warp, it's a player impact stat, rpm and its step child war are player fit stats (which espn have taken to using as player quality stats), while by no means the be all and end all, espn have been using those stats to mean something they don't (take a look at the spurs starters and tell me if you notice something if you're trying to use it for quality)
They also have the Pelicans going 38-44. That's only 5 more wins than last year when they were DECIMATED by injuries. Adding Asik and assuming they will be healthier only gets them 5 more wins? They could have won 38 last year easily if they were healthy. These projections are a bunch of crap.
Maybe I'm a sunshine pumper, but I think we're going to be better than we were last year. I'm already liking the Ariza fit better than Chandler. Asik was a non factor in the regular season and Lin is addition by subtraction. He was either going to make a really good play or take a bad shot / turn the ball over. I honestly believe this team will be better.
I don't like the dynamic of their team. I think they'll go .500 or maybe a game or two above, but I don't think they're as good as being hyped by some. Love AD, love Anderson and I like Tyreke a lot, but I don't like the way Holiday, Evans and Gordon play together.
POINT 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINNING TITLE???? I mean we aren't a favorite, no doubt....but POINT 3 PERCENT CHANCE??? That's just insulting. 8th seed? Give me a break. We won't be any worse than 6th, and I think we'll be much better than that. Our first half of the season might be rough as we try to build chemistry, but I am sure we'll once again be one of the best teams post-January. How do these national sports people have jobs? Everything they say is meant to hype up the largest markets.
They have golden state winning the west and OKC and Memphis behind Dallas. They on the good stuff and they ain't sharing.
538 isn't a national sports person trying to hype anyone. They use scientific formulas to calculate percentages/odds. On politics that have been nearly flawless, much to the chagrin of our own basketballhollic who mocked Nate Silver under a different user name and hyped up his own political nonsense polling before getting egg on his face. As for sports, never followed them. Sports is a little tougher to come up with exact scientific results for. However, things like Pythagorean formulas tend to be pretty close to accurate.