more indications of problems in Barackistan: [rquoter] Posted on Tuesday, August 5, 2008 New poll shows Obama losing support among young, women More on this Story By Steven Thomma | McClatchy Newspapers Barack Obama has lost ground among some of his strongest bases of support, including young people, women, Democrats and independents, according to a new ATV/Zogby poll. The Illinois Democrat has also lost some support among African-Americans and Hispanics, where his lead over Republican John McCain has shrunk, and among Catholics, where he's lost his lead. The net result, pollster John Zogby found, is a race that's neck and neck, with McCain supported by 42 percent; Obama by 41 percent; Libertarian Bob Barr by 2 percent; and independent Ralph Nader by 2 percent. Another 13 percent supported other candidates or were undedcided. Zogby called the results a "notable turnaround" from a July survey he did that showed Obama leading by 46-36. "McCain made signifciant gains at Obama's expense among some of what had been Obama's strongest demographic groups," Zogby said. His findings: -Among voters aged 18-29, Obama lost 16 percent and McCain gained 20. Obama still leads, 49-38; -Among women, McCain gained 10 percentage points. Obama now leads 43-38; -Among independents, Obama lost an 11 point lead. They're now tied; -Among Democrats, Obama's support dropped from 83 percent to 74 percent; -Among Catholics, Obama lost the 11 point lead he had in July and now trails McCain by 15. Zogby said Obama also lost ground among minorities. He attributed Obama's erosion of support to McCain's criticisms of Obama as inexperienced in the wake of Obama's trip to Europe, the Middle East, Afghanistan and Iraq and to Obama's flips on some issues. "The survey results come as Obama, fresh off what had been characterized as a triumphant tour of the Middle East and Europe, including a speech to 200,000 Germans in Berlin. That trip quickly became fodder for an aggressive response ad by the McCain campaign that questioned whether Obama's popularity around the world meant he was ready to lead the U.S.," Zogby said. "The McCain camp seems to have turned lemons into lemonade. Huge crowds and mostly favorable press reviews of Obama's overseas trip have been trumped by McCain's attacks on Obama. Loss of support for Obama among young voters may also be due to his perceived reversals on issues they care about, such as the war and government eavesdropping." The poll of 1,011 likely voters was conducted July 31-Aug 1 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.[/rquoter]
If going completely negative is what it takes, then Obama needs to start. Forget the whole being honorable thing and talking about the issues. If it's going to work for the other side, make it work for your side. If it works, it works.
Ahh... the naivete of Obama's supporters... I'd say playing the race card from the bottom of the deck is plenty negative. Repeatedly distorting John McCain's record as a centrist and coalition builder/maverick is plenty negative. Disingenuously linking McCain to Bush every chance he gets is plenty negative. Sending Wesley Clark out to talk bad about McCain's Vietnam experience is plenty negative. I could go on and on...
Does anyone actually believe this? That in the last month, there was 26 point swing among Catholics and a 16 point swing among young voters? And in an age with a few polls every single day, not a single other poll found the same results?
http://gallup.com/ After the presidential race tightened last week, Barack Obama has regained a modest advantage over John McCain, leading him by 47% to 43% in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update... Daily polls...
Gallup explained -- Is Obama's Lead In Gallup Polls Stable Or Volatile? If your heart stops with every dip and bump registered by Gallup's daily tracking poll, here's some welcome news: the race is more stable than you might think. Emory University Political Science Professor Alan Abramowitz sends along a couple of interesting graphs that each plot Barack Obama's consistent lead over John McCain in the presidential race. In the first graph, each daily tracking poll since the end of the Democratic primary season is charted as a distinct data point, making for what looks like a wild ride: Having some fun with those who would over-interpret this graph, Abramowitz said: "Look--Obama is surging! OMG, Obama's support is collapsing. No wait, he's surging again! Oh no, he's collapsing again! What happened to that 9 point lead? McCain's strategy must be working. All is lost--the end is near! I knew we should have nominated Hillary!" Then Abramowitz steps back a bit, averaging the Obama lead from each daily tracking poll into 10-day data points, stretching from June 5 to August 4. Which gives him a rather stable-looking 3-to-4 point lead for Obama: Explaining the optical illusion, Abramowitz says: "When you group the tracking poll data into ten-day periods it becomes clear that support for the presidential candidates since the end of the primaries has been extremely stable, with Obama maintaining a modest but consistent lead, and that almost all of the day-to-day movement in the data is simply random noise." Or, in a somewhat shorter version of his attitude toward the ups and downs of the daily graph that gets turned over each day on cable news shows, Abramowitz says: "Never mind." http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/08/05/is-obamas-lead-in-gallup_n_117058.html
More links from HuffPo -- the Obama-hopey-makey-change mouthpiece... no cred... http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9946139b-a61a-4f93-bbcc-6ce0fae9014a In other news, McCain appears to be taking a nice lead in Florida... no surprise.
If Obama wins Florida, you're looking at a complete blowout. McCain has to win Florida, but it's not at the top of Obama's strategy to win. Obama's more likely to win IO, CO, NV, NM, NH, MO, OH, PA, VA, WI, MI, etc than Florida. I'd say he has a better chance in Montana and Alaska as well, simply because of his ground game compared to McCain. It doesn't hurt than Sarah Palin also spoke pretty highly of the Obama energy plan.
I've also heard that Democratic on the ground voter registration is up immensely in Florida (something like over 100,000 new voters) while republican voter registration is pathetic. So you never know about Florida. Might surprise everyone. A link -- Florida: “Huge Swing” in Voter Registration to Dems An escalating number of voters registering as Democrats is providing evidence that the 2008 election could produce a wave of support for Barack Obama - and trigger a decades-long shift of party allegiance that could affect elections for a generation. The numbers are ominous for Republicans: Through May,Democratic voter registration in Broward County was up 6.7 percent. Republican registrations grew just 3 percent while independents rose 2.8 percent. Democrats have posted even greater gains statewide, up 106,508 voters from January through May, compared with 16,686 for the Republicans. http://dccc.org/blog/archives/florida_huge_swing_in_voter_registration_to_dems/
Likewise if McCain wins Michigan/Pennsylvania, it's a complete blowout in his favor. Florida's Jewish population won't get behind Obama in November. You can take that to the bank.
Very possible. At the end of the day, I think the demographics work against him. A ridiculous number of senior citizens who are going to be much more comfortable with an older/experience-oriented candidate than a younger/change-oriented candidate. Obama consistently loses older voters, and McCain has enough of an image as a moderate that I think a lot of those Dems will vote Dem on local races + McCain. We'll see, though.
Oh Rabbi Jorge. Spoken like a true charlatan. You'd better make sure your bank is covered by FDIC. You're gonna need it in November!
Absolutely, which is why it would be silly for me to post an MI or PA poll showing Obama with a 6 pt lead. Except for the fact that he's already ahead pretty comfortably (about 2:1) amongst Jewish voters nationwide. After his mideast tour, polls in Israel also shows Obama to be preferred over McCain there too. The whole "he's an evil Muslim" attack failed pretty spectacularly.
It's foolish to hang your hat on that data, when a very damaging revelation regarding Obama/Israel has yet to be released. Very damaging. GOOD DAY
Yet another unreleased story that you throw out as a distraction. So far you 0 for 2 on those stories.
