As a pirate fan, this always frustrates me too. Every year, there are high school players who are first or second round talent, but go in later rounds because they have accepted scholarships and will require an above-slot bonus to sign. A second round bonus is usually less than 800k. So thats really not a large sum of money, especially compared to Shawn Shacon's salary (or Matt Morris for the Bucs). But the danger in going above slot to sign a bunch of guys would be the Yankess, Red Sox, Cubs, and Dodgers saying "2 can play at that game" and then just upping the ante on all bonuses, making it tougher for other teams to sign anyone. Thats the rationale I've always heard, but its frustrating to see your team let talent walk away when the difference in $$ is 200-400k.
yes, but as i mentioned when you brought it up previously, he was 4-5 years younger in 2003. i can only assume you haven't yet hit 30 if you don't recognize the difference. not that things magically start breaking down right as you cross the barrier, but severity, recovery, recurrence - it all increases in your 30s, in addition to all the wear and tear starting to catch up to you. so it’s one thing to struggle at 27; quite another to struggle at 31 – enough that you’re being naïve and irresponsible as a baseball team if you’re not at least entertaining the idea. and so yes, this winter, i would have gambled that what we saw last year was a portend of things to come. and would have then explored turning that still-valuable asset into greater future assets. and it would have been stupid, stupid, stupid… unless the return was simply stupendous. i referenced beane only because of his knack for dealing guys at what always appears to be their peak, thus maximizing their value. i think we’re at that point with oswalt – IF you’re going to try and rebuild, he’s your only chip and he needs to be traded sooner rather than later. there’s no guarantee his value will ever be this high again, given his age and performance this year.
I never said I don't believe in aging. I said that Lance's year wasn't typical of somebody who was simply deteriorating due to age, given that he was able to get better as the season went on. Now, Tejada... that is a guy growing old with every single at bat. Thank goodness Troy Patton and Matt Albers have gotten hurt, otherwise the Astros would be decidedly on the short-end of yet another trade (not that they may be anyways). This is why I'm cautious about trading Oswalt. Again, his peripherals have decreased since his debut.... but that was also the case in his BEST ERA years (2005-2006), which was laregly due to the change in approach. If he is to bounce back now, after a decidedly fluke-ish season (the HR's allowed are surreal), I don't see the current regime targetting anybody who will help this team significantly return to greatnes... at the expense of losing a potential HOFer, an Astro-lifer, an AFFORDABLE ace, and somebody who still likely has 4-5 dominant (at least) years of pitching left (enough time to put together something by the end of his prime... kinda like what we did for Biggio/Bagwell). Actually, Berkman would be that guy... as Roy is not as at his peak. Even then, you can't compare Beane's scouting abilities to our crew; he is so much more invested in other team's minor league systems, due to his own financial restraints imposed, that he likely knows more about other team's prospects than the team that actually owns them.
